Global and China coal industry and energy production structure analysis [2018] FIG.
HTTP: // www.chyxx.com/industry/201805/640925.html Chinese coal accounted for 66 % of total energy consumption rates in the world's coal 30 % petroleum 33 % of China's oil share is 19 %
Global coal supply contracts, the dominant position of Chinese coal firm
In recent years, global coal industry depth adjustment, world coal production since 2014 decline began to accelerate in 2014 - 2016 world coal production was 8.198 billion tons, 7.961 billion tons, 7.46 billion tons, respectively, year on year growth rate of -0.93%, - 2.89 % - 6.29%, the global supply continued to shrink. From the main coal producing country, China, the United States, Australia, India, the European Union, Indonesia is the world's major coal producing countries (regions), the proportion of China's coal output in 2016 was 46.1%.
2016 coal production in the world's major coal-producing countries accounting case
Source: Public data compilation
Related Report: Chilean research Consulting released " 2019--2025 China's coal industry market analysis and forecasting the direction of investment research report "
2016 global coal consumption was 3.58 billion tons of oil equivalent, down 8.8 percent year on year. 2016 coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region has nearly 73.8% of the global total, China and India, two emerging economies of the world accounted for 61.6 per cent of total consumption, affect the demand for global coal market. Among them, Chinese coal consumption since 2014, a downward trend in consumption in 2016 was 18.9 million tons of oil equivalent, down 1.6%.
Our coal as its main energy pattern is difficult to change. China's coal reserves and rich, with strong resources available, the use of the economy is good, has clean, supportability, and other characteristics, can meet 74% of electricity, more than 800 million tons of crude steel, 2.4 billion tons of cement, The development of modern coal chemical industry needs 70 million tons of synthetic ammonia and coal oil, olefins, glycols, methanol and so on. "Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020 years)," proposed that by 2020, the domestic primary energy consumption control at around 4.8 billion tons of standard coal, the proportion of coal consumption control in less than 62%, is still the country's main source of energy.
World energy mix
Source: Public data compilation
China's energy structure
Source: Public data compilation
China's abundant coal reserves, foreign trade situation is a fundamental change
China's coal reserves are abundant resources, predicted geological reserves of over 4.5 trillion tons, is the world's first coal-producing countries, 2016 proved reserves of 1.6 billion tons, accounting for 21.4% of total global reach. The current level of industrial development of China's economy to the economy in coal conversion stage oil and petroleum products in the national economy, although the proportion of higher and higher, but coal resources still occupies an important position in China's energy structure.
China's proven coal reserves (100 million tons) and the proportion of total global total
Source: Public data compilation
2011-2013, China's coal consumption rising trend; 2014-2016 years, the continuous decline in coal consumption. The first three quarters, the national coal market supply and demand balance, coal price fluctuations within a reasonable space, above-scale enterprises coal production 2.592 billion tons, an increase of 140 million tons, an increase of 5.7%; the national coal consumption was about 2.94 billion tons, an increase 126 million tons, an increase of 4.5%. Predict the first 10 months of the country, coal consumption is about 32 million tons, an increase of about 4.5%.
Domestic coal production and coal consumption goods (million tons)
Source: Public data compilation
近年来，由于广东、广西、浙江等南部地区经济快速发展，加大对能源需求，国内动力煤需求直线上升。而我国煤炭资源分布偏西偏北，煤炭需经长途运输才能达到终端消费地，运力紧张问题使得许多企业更偏向于进口国外煤炭。因此，出于增加供给和保护国内资源等方面考虑，国家不断通过宏观调控手段鼓励煤炭进口，如降低部分煤产品进口关税，调控效果较为显著。出口方面，为抑制资源性产品出口，我国数次调整相关产品进出口政策，下调、取消了煤炭出口退税，加征出口关税，使得近年来煤炭出口规模呈不断下降趋势。
“一进一出”悄然变化，我国煤炭对外贸易形势发生了根本性转变。据统计，1～9月份累计进口煤炭2.05亿吨，同比增长13.7%，其中9月份进口2708万吨，增长10.8%。
中国煤炭进口量（万吨）
数据来源：公开资料整理
“去产能”稳步推进，供需走低趋势明显
2016年初，去产能打响了供给侧改革的第一枪，国务院及发改委等相关部委陆续出台相应的去产能政策，政策出台密集且力度大，取得了立竿见影的效果。2016年2月，国务院出台《关于煤炭行业化解过剩产能实现脱困发展的意见》，从2016年开始，用3～5年的时间，煤炭行业再退出产能年的时间，煤炭行业再退出产能5亿吨左右、减量重组5亿吨左右。2016年，煤炭月度产量同比均呈下降状态，6月份同比最大降幅达到16.6%，产量收缩效果明显。2016年完成2.9亿吨去产能任务基础上，今年已提前完成了1.5亿吨的去产能任务。
我国富煤缺油少气的能源现状，决定了能源结构的优化不可能等同于“去煤炭化”。2016年，全国能源消费总量43.6亿吨标准煤，其中石油表观消费占18.1%，天然气消费6.2%，煤炭消费为62.4%，而世界煤炭消费量平均占比仅为29.2%。
煤炭在中国能源生产总量和消费总量中的占比
数据来源：公开资料整理
Supply-side reforms that dramatically improves the price of coal, in the capacity to influence and enhance environmental protection efforts of superposition, the future supply of coal will gradually decrease; on the other hand, with the domestic and international economic recovery, domestic demand for coal will have the increase, to provide support for coal prices remain high.
Northwest thermal coal price (yuan / ton)
Source: Public data compilation
China's coal industry supply scale forecast (million tons)
Source: Public data compilation
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