Nearly a decade of steady growth in the worldwide server market in 2017 started to recover. Global server market in recent years CAGR of around 6%, steady growth in demand. Since 2017, worldwide server market showed significant recovery trend. Traditional businesses are faced with the challenges of digital transition, need to continue to accelerate the pace of innovative IT technology, it needs more recovery focused on cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and other emerging traffic load. 2018, worldwide server market shipments of 12 million units, revenue of $ 75 billion, equivalent to RMB 5,200 million.

    2009--2018 shipments and annual revenue in the worldwide server

Source: Public data compilation

    2018, China X86 server shipments to 3.3 million units, up 26%; revenues of $ 17 billion, an increase of 55%, nearly five years CAGR of about 19%. The main sectors driving the market growth for the Internet, telecommunications, and financial services industries, the volume growth of more than 20%, and operators of large Internet growth was particularly strong. IDC predicts that by 2023 China X86 server shipments will more than 5.25 million units in the next five years, revenue will reach 9.7% CAGR.

    A large data drive demand

    Cloud computing has led to large-scale Internet companies to build data centers, data center and it is constructed from a large number of server entities. Global server market by the ultra-large-scale data centers, to promote large-scale enterprises and medium-sized data center expenditure growth.

    2018 to IaaS, PaaS and SaaS as the representative of the global public cloud market size reached $ 136.3 billion, growth of 23%. He predicted that the next few years the average market growth rate of about 20%, is expected to 2022 market size will exceed $ 270 billion. 2018, China's overall cloud computing market reached 96.3 billion yuan, the growth rate of 39%, which the public cloud market reached 43.7 billion yuan. Forecasting, public cloud market 2019--2022 years, there will be in the stage of rapid growth, in 2022 the market will reach 173.1 billion yuan, CAGR over 41%; private cloud market will maintain steady growth, to 117.2 billion yuan in 2022, CAGR over 22 %.

    As cloud computing architecture alternative to the traditional architecture, the structure of the data center has undergone great changes, computing resources continue to focus on the data center of the head. Internet and cloud computing oligarchs effect gave birth to large and very large data center needs, many medium-sized enterprises have begun to be distributed in small data centers around the integration into large data centers. According to the survey data show that China's data center in small or medium size, the number of racks 61%, in the construction of large and very large data center to the main chassis number will account for 85% of installed capacity planning.
Accounting for equipment procurement costs in the data center servers, networking equipment, storage devices, security devices, and an optical module / fiber, etc. were 69%, 11%, 6%, 9% and 5%, of a different embodiment is slightly different, but

    Overall, IDC server costs accounting for approximately 60-70% of the cost of the hardware.

    In contrast to the scale of construction IDC

Source: Public data compilation

    In comparison with the scale of IDC

Source: Public data compilation

    IDC proportion of the cost structure

Source: Public data compilation

    According to the survey data show that in 2017, large corporate customers (with more than 1 million servers) contributed more than 50% of revenue for the server market, large corporate customers (have 10-50 million servers) contributed more than 10%, accounting for half of server requirements . According to the survey data show that in 2018, large and large data centers (with more than 100,000 servers), 40% came from the United States, China accounted for only 8%, there is still room for improvement in the long term several times.

    2018 Global distribution of large data centers

Source: Public data compilation

    AI服务器主要指的是采用异构形式的服务器，目前广泛使用的是CPU+GPU。2018年，中国GPU服务器市场规模为13.05亿美金（约合人民币90.05亿元），同比增长131%。仍然是AI基础架构领域的主流，销售额占比达到99%。根据IDC预测，到2023年中国GPU服务器市场规模将达到43.2亿美金（约合人民币298亿元），未来5年整体市场年复合增长率（CAGR）为27%。

    2018-2023年中国GPU服务器市场规模及预测（百万美元）

数据来源：公开资料整理

    8成销售额来自于4卡以上GPU服务器，占比达到80.4%；16卡GPU服务器增长迅猛，销售额从2017年的2,090万美元增长到2018年的2.63亿美元，同比增速高达1,161.7%，在GPU服务器整体份额中的比例从2017年的3.7%快速攀升至2018年的20.4%。多GPU服务器呈现出的高速增长趋势表明，随着数据的爆炸增长与深度神经网络日趋复杂，更高性能AI服务器在线下场景落地，AI算力需求逐步迈入高峰期。

    2017-2018年中国GPU服务器类型分布（百万美元）

数据来源：公开资料整理

    根据调查数据显示，2019年第一季度中国X86服务器市场出货量66.2万台，同比下滑0.7%；市场规模35.90亿美元，同比增长13.5%。2019年第一季度全球服务器出货量260万台，同比下降5.1%，市场规模达到198亿美元，同比增长4.4%。出货量负增长的原因一方面是由于第一季度本身为采购淡季；另一方面是由于互联网公司相较2018年上半年需求有了明显的收缩和延迟。同时由于互联网客户及传统行业客户的配置不断提升，硬盘和内存数量和容量继续增加，X86服务器均价不断增长达到历史新高。尤其在电信、金融和教育等行业，均价明显高于X86服务器市场平均单价。

    2019Q1中国X86服务器市场规模及其增速

数据来源：公开资料整理

    二、格局

    服务器行业市场集中度较高，且国产服务器厂商的市场份额不断增长。服务器行业属于技术密集型和资金密集型行业，进入壁垒较高，全球范围内只有少数厂商掌握相关技术并形成生产规模。目前，国内参与高端计算机行业竞争的企业主要有联想、华为、浪潮信息、新华三和戴尔等企业。由于多年技术积累带来的产品实力的提升，国产服务器厂商的市场份额持续攀升。在技术比较成熟的X86服务器市场，出现了向国产品牌集中的局面，市场价格竞争也不断加剧。

    中国服务器市场：国产品牌为主。与全球市场不同，中国服务器市场由国产品牌主导。2018年中国x86服务器市场中，仅有戴尔一家外国厂商位列前五，其他四家分别为：浪潮、华为、新华三、曙光。此外，ODM直销市场占有率也较低。

    2019Q1中国X86服务器厂商市场占比

数据来源：公开资料整理

    全球服务器市场：戴尔、HPE、浪潮位列前三，ODM厂商崛起。近五年来，品牌厂商戴尔和HPE始终位列全球服务器市场占有率前两名，各自保持在20%左右。浪潮位于第二梯队，占据6.2%的份额。其他三大品牌厂商联想、IBM和思科，分别拥有5%左右市占率。受益于下游科技公司采购方式的改变，自2017Q2起，ODM直销迅速崛起，2019Q1市占率达23%，对品牌厂商形成侵蚀。

    2015-2019年全球服务器厂商市场占有率

数据来源：公开资料整理

    随着云计算等新产业兴起，服务器产业链的下游客户发生了改变，科技巨头成为了主导。凭借自身的资金和技术优势，科技巨头具备自主开发管理软件进行服务器维护的能力，因此更希望直接向ODM厂商采购服务器硬件设备、并自行组装，跳过品牌厂商，以降低数据中心成本。为了规范硬件标准，美国与中国科技巨头与分别联合组建了开放计算联盟OCP(OpenComputingProject)与ODCC(OpenDataCenterCommittee)，OCP成员包括Facebook、微软、谷歌等，ODCC成员包括阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度等。

    Brands have more advantages in software development capabilities, server product performance and stability, and customer response speed; while white-box server vendors in cost control, large-scale manufacturing capacity slightly better. Of course, the above comparison has a premise that is for server cloud services they need.

    Third, industry trends

    Cloud computing, the rise of AI and other new industries, downstream client-server industry chain has changed, has become a leading Internet technology giant. Server market with technology giants CapEx. Highly correlated. According 2015--2018 on the Data, worldwide server shipments growth rate of change remained the same with Amazon, Microsoft and Google capital spending growth, both calculate the correlation coefficient of 80%; China's server shipments growth rate of change in the basic and Ali Tencent and Baidu capital expenditure growth remained consistent, both calculated correlation coefficient of 90%.

    2015-2018, the global technology giant Amazon, Microsoft and Google capital spending CAGR respectively 35%, 29% and 40%; the same period, Chinese technology giant capital spending CAGR of 66%, 46% and 19%, respectively; overall maintained rapid increase.

    2018, Amazon infrastructure investment techniques (mainly for Amazon cloud services AWS) to $ 11 billion, Microsoft investment in property and equipment of $ 14 billion to $ 24 billion overall capital expenditures Google. In contrast, the smaller Chinese technology giant investment scale. 2018, Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu Capital expenditures were 50 billion and 2.3 billion and 900 million yuan.