2018年美赛E题idea

审题

一、名词解释

• fragile states
  -> the government cannot provide the essentials to its people, in sovereign ways.

二、背景

• Climate Change -> destabilized governments -> fragile states
  • e.g. increased droughts, shrinking glaciers, changing
    animal and plant ranges, and sea level rise
• fragile states 的影响
  • 使国民在面对一些气候灾害时更脆弱,
    e.g. natural disasters, decreasing arable land, unpredictable weather, and
    increasing temperatures
  • 一些developing states会恶化
    e.g. Non-sustainable environmental practices, migration, and resource
    shortages
• 具体国家案例
  -> Syria,Yemen
  • Environmental stress + latent ethnic +political divisions => violent conflict
  • drought + weak governance + social fragmentation => violent conflict

三、任务

• TASK1: MODEL
  要求如下：

  • 目标：determines country's fragility & impact of climate change
  • 结果：
    (1) 结论：state -> fragile? vulnerable? stable?
    (2) 分析： how climate change increases fragility? (in/directly)

• TASK2: CASE ANALYSIS(1)
  从前十中选一个 use your model!
  要求如下：

  • how climate change -> increased fragility?
  • Use your model to show in what way(s) the state may be less fragile
    without these effects.
    有什么方式可以让这个国家免除这些这些影响来让the state less fragile

• TASK3: CASE ANALYSIS(2)
  从非前十中选一个use your model!

  • in what way? when?
    climate change -> push -> more fragile ; Identify definitive indicators
  • how? to define a tipping point, and predict when

• TASK4:INTERCENTION
  use your model!

  • interventions
    -> mitigate the risk of climate change
    -> prevent from fragile state
  • Explain the effect of intervention.
    Predict the cost

• TASK5: MODEL MODIFY
  出发点：

  • smaller "states" / larger "states"?

参考机构及资源

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Fragile State Index
• The World Bank