PMP Study Key Notes (Project Risk Management)

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The Connotation of Risk Management	An indeterminate event or condition. Three elements of risk: event, probability, impact (negative and positive opportunities) known - known (problem), project management plan Known-unknown type of risk, countermeasures are contingency reserves Unknown - Unknown type of risk, response is management reserve After risk response: (1) residual risk (residual risk); (2) secondary risk (secondary risk) Risk exposure: Risks that are not under control (not dealt with within the risk threshold, it is currently safe) The goal of risk management: to increase the probability of positive risks and reduce the probability of negative risks Planning Risk Management: Defining and Implementing Risk Management Activities Identify risks: Lead the team to identify and identify the sources of risks Qualitative Risk Analysis: Prioritizing Risks Quantitative risk analysis: (for high priority risks) probability and impact analysis (optional step) Planning Risk Responses: Output of the above to the Risk Register Implement Risk Response: Execute the agreed risk response plan Supervise risks: track and identify risks, and identify new risks
Planning Risk Management	A process that defines how project risk management activities will be implemented I: Project charter, project management plan, project documents (stakeholder register) TT: expert judgment, data analysis O: Risk Management Plan Risk management plan: guidelines and directions on how to arrange and implement risk management activities. Risk preference of related parties, definition of risk probability and impact, risk probability and impact matrix, etc. Risk category: RBS risk breakdown structure, all possible sources Risk preference of related parties: risk pursuit, risk neutrality, risk aversion Probability and Impact Definitions: Scales - Probability, Time, Cost, Quality Probability and Impact Matrix: Priority, Sub-importance, Non-importance (Observation)
identify risks	document risk I： TT: Data collection (brainstorming and nominal groups, interviews, checklists as reminders, Delphi techniques - anonymous status experts answering questionnaires consistently over multiple rounds), data analysis (root cause analysis 5 whys, what-ifs and constraints analysis, SWOT Analyzing strategy related to broaden the scope of identifying risks), reminder list (you can use the risk category at the bottom of RBS as a reminder list, PESTLE, TECOP, VUCA) O：风险登记册（文本已识别风险的清单、潜在风险责任人、应对清单、所有与风险相关的内容持续更新进来）、风险报告（渐进式编制，整体项目风险的来源、关于已识别单个项目风险的概述信息）
定性风险分析	根据风险发生的概率和影响对风险进行优先级排序。 风险数据质量评估，风险数据是开展定性风险分析的基础。 概率和影响评估和概率和影响矩阵。 气泡图：展现3个维度数据。
定量风险分析	量化整体项目的风险敞口，提供额外的定量风险信息。（非必须步骤） 数据分析（ 模拟、敏感性分析、决策树分析、影响图） 模拟：使用模型来模拟单个项目风险和其他不确定性来源的综合影响，通常采用蒙特卡洛分析。 敏感性分析：确定哪些单个项目风险或其他项目结果具有最大的潜在影响。（龙卷风图） 决策树分析：通过计算每条分支的预期货币价值，选出最佳方案。
规划风险应对	制定应对整体项目风险和单个项目风险的适当方法，包括分配资源和活动添加。 威胁应对策略：上报（范围外，权限外）、规避（消除威胁）、转移（第三方）、减轻（概率或影响降低）、接受（被动或主动接受） 机会应对策略：上报（范围外，权限外）、开拓（确保机会实现）、分享（第三方）、提高（概率和影响提高）、接受（乐以利用，不主动追求） 应急应对策略： 应急计划（事先制定的风险应对计划）A计划 弹回计划（备用应对计划）B计划 权变措施（未经识别和分析的风险，需要采取紧急措施） 兜底计划：C计划
实施风险应对	之上是规划过程组，当前是执行过程组。 执行商定的风险应对计划的过程。执行是困难的，风险责任人执行应对。 更新风险登记册。
监督风险	在整个项目期间，监督商定的风险应对计划的实施、跟踪已识别风险、识别和分析新风险，以及评估风险管理有效性的过程。 发现新出现、正变化和已过时的单个项目风险。 确定项目假设条件是否仍然成立、是否出现新的单个项目风险。 储备分析：应急储备-已知未知风险；管理储备-未知未知风险（分配和动态调整） 审计：评估风险管理过程的有效性（项目经理团队内部审计，项目经理负责）