The container shipping market in the first half of 2022 is different from the booming market in the same period last year. It shows a trend of "both volume and price drop". Freight demand is lower than expected, and the supply of space and empty containers is sufficient.
1. The performance of the container shipping market in the first half of 2022
- Trade demand falls short of expectations
Affected by global economic inflation, high inventory at destinations, return of domestic orders, and rising prices of raw materials, the demand for seaborne trade in the first half of the year did not meet expectations. Financial reports released by a number of liner companies showed a year-on-year decrease in cargo volume. Among them, the cargo volume of Maersk (MSK) decreased by 7% year-on-year in the first quarter; the cargo volume of CMA CMA (CMA) decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first quarter; Cargo volume fell by 7.7% and 4.2% year-on-year respectively; Orient Overseas (OOCL)'s cargo volume in the first half of the year fell by 7.4% year-on-year, of which the cargo volume on the trans-Pacific route fell by 13.8% year-on-year.
Consumer markets in major destinations are experiencing high inflation and declining purchasing power. The CPI in the euro zone and the United States has continued to rise since December 2020 and June 2020, respectively. Among them, the CPI in the euro area increased by 8.6% year-on-year in June, setting a record high; the CPI in the United States increased by 9.1% year-on-year in June, the highest increase since November 1981. At the same time, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that in June 2022 and from January to June 2022, except for recreation and hospitality services (affected by the unblocking of the epidemic), among the 13 industries in the United States, the average hourly wages of the remaining 12 industries increased year-on-year Both were far lower than the CPI growth rate in the same period. In June 2022, the average hourly earnings of U.S. workers, adjusted for inflation, will fall by 1%, continuing the downward trend for 15 consecutive months. Shrinking "wallets" have led to a continuous decline in consumer purchasing power.
Figure 1 Year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages of workers in major industries in the United States
The inventory rate of large retailers is high, and the enthusiasm for inventory replenishment in major destination consumer markets has declined. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retailers' inventory-to-sales ratio hit 1.2 in May, the highest level since February 2021. The data released by many large retailers in the first quarter of 2022 shows that many retailers are facing high inventory and slowing sales, and the year-on-year growth rate of inventory is much higher than the sales growth rate. At the same time, Target, the second largest department store in the United States, has stated that it will reduce the prices of kitchen appliances and electronic products, which lead to high inventory, and cancel some purchase orders; South Korea’s Samsung Electronics has asked TVs, household appliances, Suppliers of smartphones have delayed shipments of semiconductors, electronic components and end-product packaging.
Table 1 Inventory Growth and Sales Growth of Some Large Retailers in the First Quarter
| retailer |
Inventory year-on-year |
sales year-on-year |
| Walmart |
32.0% |
4.0% |
| Amazon |
46.7% |
7.6% |
| Home Depot |
31.9% |
3.8% |
| Opener (Costco) |
26.1% |
16.3% |
| Walgreens |
4.8% |
14.7% |
| Target |
43.1% |
4.0% |
| Lowe's |
10.1% |
-3.1% |
| Best Buy |
9.4% |
-8.0% |
| Dollar General |
19.4% |
4.2% |
Data source: Compiled and summarized by Ningbo Aviation Exchange
The manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia, South Asia and other countries has resumed, and some domestic foreign trade orders have returned. Overseas has basically entered a state of "coexistence" with the new crown epidemic, and the production and manufacturing industries in Southeast Asia, South Asia and othermanufacturingcountries and European and American consumer countries have basicallyreturnedto normal. In the textile and clothing, home building materials, consumer electronics and other industries, orders that originally flowed into China from overseas due to the impact of the epidemic have returned; moreChinese companieshave also chosen to invest and build factories overseas in order to avoid trade barriers and reduce labor costs. Labor-intensive product lines were migrated to Southeast Asia, South Asia and other countries. From January to May this year, Chinese textiles and clothing accounted for 23.5% of the U.S. market, down 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year and 4.3 percentage points from 2021. Textiles and clothing from major importing countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Indonesia are imported in the United States. The market share has increased to varying degrees. Among them,Vietnamesetextiles and clothing accounted for 14.9% of the US market, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year and an increase of 1.4 percentage points from 2021.
Figure 2 Proportion of major importing countries of US textiles and clothing
The rise in raw materials and the epidemic have led to shutdowns and production cuts, and domestic companies have reduced production. Raw materials such as international energy and metal prices have risen at high levels, driving up prices in related domestic industries. Among them,the price of iron frames, sponges, plastics and other raw materials commonly used in furniture has increased by more than 100% in just one or two years, and the price of packaging materials has increased by about 20%. Dropped and some orders were cancelled. In addition, Shenzhen, Jiangsu, Shanghai and other major domestic manufacturing and shipping industries have been affected by sudden outbreaks, and enterprises have reduced production or stopped operations. At the same time, in the face of the unknown impact of the uncertainty of the epidemic cycle on raw material prices, logistics and transportation, and overseas demand, companies are cautious about production capacity.
(2) Port congestion is widespread
As of June 2022, the global container transport capacity will reach 25.78 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, which is basically the same as the growth rate of transport capacity in the same period of 2021, and continues to maintain a slight growth trend. At the same time, judging from the anchoring time of ships in major ports on routes in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia: the anchoring time of some ports has been shortened, but global port congestion is still common. Among them, the Port of Los Angeles on the US-West route was affected by the decline in cargo volume (imported heavy containers fell by 2.7% year-on-year from January to May 2022), the anchoring time was significantly shortened, and the congestion improved; while the Port of New York on the US-East route (January-5 The monthly import of heavy containers increased by 11.5% year-on-year) to undertake a large number of goods transferred from the West of the United States, and the congestion has intensified this year.
Although port congestion restricts the release of some container capacity, the supply of space on most routes is sufficient due to the reduction in demand. During this period, in order to maintain the freight rate of the route at a relatively high level, the liner companies have adopted large-scale suspension measures on routes such as Europe, East America, West America, Middle East, Red Sea, India and Pakistan. Among them, the suspended capacity of the Middle East and Red Sea routes once reached 40% and 60% respectively, but the shipping space can only maintain a short-term tense situation.
Table 2 Anchorage time of some ports around the world
| port |
2021 (hours) |
2022 (hours) |
YoY |
|||
| June |
Average from January to June |
June |
Average from January to June |
June |
Average from January to June |
|
| Los Angeles (USA) |
90 |
105 |
25 |
48 |
-72.2% |
-54.0% |
| New York (USA) |
36 |
38 |
139 |
109 |
286.1% |
188.1% |
| Felixstowe (UK) |
26 |
33 |
14 |
32 |
-46.2% |
-3.0% |
| Hamburg (Germany) |
50 |
33 |
87 |
76 |
74.0% |
128.1% |
| Rotterdam (Netherlands) |
46 |
43 |
35 |
45 |
-23.9% |
5.1% |
| Piraeus (Greece) |
24 |
27 |
50 |
38 |
108.3% |
39.8% |
| Laem Chabang (Thailand) |
22 |
20 |
31 |
43 |
40.9% |
113.1% |
| Klang (Malaysia) |
4 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
75.0% |
3.9% |
| Ho Chi Minh Port (Vietnam) |
62 |
42 |
15 |
18 |
-75.8% |
-56.2% |
| Singapore (Singapore) |
92 |
49 |
23 |
62 |
-75.0% |
26.2% |
Data source: Ganggang Bao
(3) The freight rate of the route fell as a whole
The off-season of the container shipping market is extended. Under the influence of insufficient demand, different from the market freight rate continued to rise after the end of March last year, the overall freight rate from the end of April to the first ten days of June this year entered a downward range again after a slight increase. However, due to the still widespread port congestion, the month-on-month decline remained below 5%. Ningbo Export Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) data shows: In the first half of 2022 , the average NCFI composite index was 3,708.5 points, down 6.1% from the second half of 2021 and up 46.3% from the same period in 2021 . As of July 1, 2022, the NCFI Composite Index has experienced a year-on-year decline, and the year-on-year decline has expanded week by week .
Figure 3 Trend Chart of Ningbo Export Container Freight Index from January 2019 to July 2022
Figure 4 The trend chart of the Ningbo export container freight index in 2021 and 2022
In the first half of 2022, the freight rates of major international routes will increase to varying degrees compared with the same period in 2021, but most of them will drop significantly compared with the second half of 2021. Among them, the average market price of a 40-foot standard container on the European route in the first half of 2022 rose by 28.5% year-on-year, but fell by 15.6% compared with the second half of 2021. The market freight rate at the end of June fell by 29.4% compared with the end of December 2021; After the end of April, there will be no more price-increased bookings for the purpose of safe storage, and the supply of space is sufficient. As of the end of June 2022, the market freight rates for 40-foot TEUs on the US-East and US-West routes have dropped by 49.1% and 59.5% respectively compared with the prices of increased bookings at the end of December 2021 ; Compared with the second half of 2021, the average market price in the first half of the year has increased by 24.6% and 13.3% respectively . It is one of the few routes in the first half of 2022 whose freight rate has increased compared with the second half of 2021. At the end of December, they fell by 39.7% and 43.4% respectively .
Table 3: 2019-2022 Freight Rate Levels of Major Routes
| route |
Annual average freight rate (USD/FEU) |
|||
| January-June 2019 |
January-June 2021 |
July-December 2021 |
January-June 2022 |
|
| Europe |
1490 |
9369 |
14278 |
12043 |
| Didong |
1678 |
9576 |
13721 |
13317 |
| Desi |
1566 |
9674 |
13969 |
13269 |
| East of the United States |
2732 |
5400 |
8382 |
10149 |
| US East ( increased price ) |
/ |
8892 |
16866 |
13832 (as of April 22) |
| west west |
1643 |
4236 |
6918 |
8178 |
| US West ( additional price ) |
/ |
6649 |
12744 |
11334 (as of April 22) |
| South America East |
1566 |
8631 |
12885 |
8817 |
| South America West |
1627 |
8755 |
13784 |
9775 |
| middle East |
1291 |
4443 |
7288 |
5931 |
| Red Sea |
1861 |
5992 |
9896 |
8258 |
| Taiyue |
448 |
1373 |
1647 |
2053 |
| Singapore and Malaysia |
327 |
1781 |
2066 |
2340 |
数据来源：宁波航运交易所
二、2022年下半年集装箱航运市场展望
欧美等主要消费地经济通胀形势严峻，零售商的高库存和市场的低消费热情可能导致下半年航运市场运输需求的旺季不旺。而海外本就拥堵的港口可能因为下半年以来频发的罢工问题出现恶化情况，或会成为部分航线运价维持高位或临时大幅上涨的较大支撑因素。同时，班轮公司经营策略、国际海事组织碳减排要求、跨国公司的供应链布局、突发性恶劣天气等仍将给航运市场带来较多不确定性。
- 海运需求方面
下半年一般是航运市场的传统旺季，往年目的地采购商会为返校季、黑五、圣诞节等加紧备货，但一方面目前海外大型零售商高企的库存已对其带来成本压力，供应链中断风险大大降低，使零售商减少无货可售的担忧；另一方面，疫情影响减弱和经济通胀抬头，使消费者减少了对笔记本电脑、家具等普通商品的消费需求。国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测2022年全球GDP增速预计为3.6%，增速较2021年下降2.5个百分点较1月份预测值下调0.8个百分点，反映出对未来经济走势信心不足。同时，欧元区、美国两大市场消费者信心指数持续下跌。7月，欧元区消费者信心指数为-27.0点，是2009年6月以来的最低点；美国消费者信心指数为51.1点，较6月略有上涨，但仍处于历史较低水平。下半年海运需求存在较大上涨阻力，马士基（MSK）预计其今年集装箱货运量处于下滑1%-增长1%的区间内，而此前的预期是增长2%-4%。
图5 主要目的地市场消费者信心指数趋势图
（二）运力供给方面
从集装箱市场整体运力来看，至2022年年底，预计集装箱航线运力将达到2603.9万TEU，同比增长4.3%，基本与2020年（4.5%）、2021年（4.5%）维持同一水平。相较于2021年，2022年主要新增装载量在15200TEU以上的船舶，船舶运力预计环比增长14.1%，这些船舶大概率将主要部署于欧地、北美航线。同时，由于班轮公司在2020年-2021年签订大量新船订单，预计2023年船舶运力将环比增长8.1%，较2021年增长12.7%。
表4：2020年-2023年船舶运力情况
| 船舶大小（TEU) |
2020年 |
2021年 |
2022年 |
2023年 |
||||
| 船舶数量（艘） |
装载量（万TEU） |
船舶数量（艘） |
装载量（万TEU） |
船舶数量（艘） |
装载量（万TEU） |
船舶数量（艘） |
装载量（万TEU） |
|
| >15200 |
174 |
341.8 |
204 |
399.9 |
235 |
456.3 |
293 |
570.9 |
| 10000-15199 |
435 |
548.4 |
459 |
578.4 |
482 |
607.0 |
517 |
656.1 |
| 5100-9999 |
915 |
695.4 |
916 |
696.3 |
917 |
696.9 |
952 |
720.7 |
| 2000-5099 |
1593 |
554.1 |
1642 |
566.6 |
1690 |
580.1 |
1785 |
608.6 |
| 100-1999 |
2255 |
249.9 |
2299 |
255.9 |
2392 |
270.6 |
2492 |
285.9 |
| 环比增速 |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.3% |
8.1% |
||||
数据来源：Alphaliner
从运力周转效率来看，港口拥堵仍是导致运力周转效率低位运行的原因，且由于近期欧美等国频发罢工，供应链面临较大不确定性。上半年，欧洲汉堡、不来梅港和威廉港、安特卫普-布鲁日港等主要集装箱枢纽港，韩国釜山港、仁川港都因工人罢工问题受到不同程度的影响，港口作业效率降低甚至码头停运，疏港能力大大降低，港口拥堵加剧。近期，为抗议“AB5”法案，美西奥克兰港装卸集装箱的卡车司机进行罢工活动，奥克兰国际集装箱码头管理层7月20日已关闭了其在美西奥克兰港的运营，且美国西海岸港口超过22000名码头工人和代表115000名铁路工人的新劳动合同谈判未能达成新协议。同时德国港口运营商协会 (ZDS) 和德国最大的服务行业工会（Verdi）之间的第六轮谈判已宣告失败。谈判未果加剧全球供应链风险。
（三）其他影响因素
1、班轮公司经营策略
由于市场舱位供给较货运需求充足，已出现即期市场运价低于长协运价的情况。截至目前，欧洲、美东、美西航线即期市场的运价已分别跌至9698USD/FEU、9332USD/FEU、6559USD/FEU。其中，美西航线即期市场运价已低于年初部分托运人与班轮公司签订的长协运价，欧洲、美东航线即期市场运价也十分接近年初签订的长协运价。为抑制运价下跌速度，保障收益，班轮公司已采取并或将长期使用调整运力的手段。船期数据显示：2022年6-7月，班轮公司在亚洲-美西、亚洲-美东、亚洲-北欧、亚洲-地中海分别停航114个航次、36个航次、24个航次、22个航次，停航总数约为去年同期的2.8倍。
表5：主要航线停航航次数量
| 2022年6-7月停航航次 |
2021年6-7月停航航次 |
同比 |
|
| 美西 |
114 |
32 |
256.3% |
| 美东 |
36 |
16 |
125.0% |
| 北欧 |
24 |
14 |
71.4% |
| 地中海 |
22 |
7 |
214.3% |
| 合计 |
196 |
69 |
184.1% |
数据来源：容易船期
2、国际海事组织碳减排要求
航运公司的碳排放量约占全球总量的2.5%，之前国际海事组织(IMO)提出到2050年将碳排放量在2008年的基础上减半，而目前则承诺至2050年实现碳零排放。波塞冬原则(以花旗银行等牵头的11家大型航运银行于2019年发起的一项名为“波塞冬原则”的全球倡议)组织也宣布将其碳减排目标修正为2050年前实现净零排放。虽然老旧的船舶可以加装降低碳排放的设备已达到减排效果，但最快的有效解决办法是降低船舶航行速度。丹麦船舶融资公司数据显示：航行速度下降10%会减少近30%的燃料消耗。为实现碳零排放目标，船舶或被要求改装或被要求降低船速，这一方面可能导致更长的航程时间，导致运力周转效率下降；一方面将增加船舶的运营成本，而成本则将转嫁于托运人。
3、跨国公司的供应链布局
疫情、俄乌冲突等突发因素，导致跨国公司对供应链安全性更为重视，倾向于从效率至上的单一供应链向多元化、N+1供应链体系转变。美国、欧盟、日本都在2021年公布了供应链多元化计划，许多过往以中国为主要供应方的跨国企业，也开始在“中国+1”思路指导下，规划在临近的东南亚国家部署部分产能。
4、突发性恶劣天气影响
下半年是亚洲的季风和台风季节。其中，太平洋台风季节一般在7-11月。2020年9月的台风“美莎克”、“海神”，2021年10月的台风“圆规”等都对集装箱班轮的海上运输和船舶靠泊装卸等造成影响，加剧港口拥堵、班轮延误。同时，泰国、越南等东南亚国家5月-10月为雨季，高温暴雨频发，将对其进口需求和出口产能造成消极影响。