1. Policy background
Economic policy: No annual economic growth target has been set, focus on “six stability” and “six guarantees”
In 2020, the two sessions did not set specific targets for annual economic growth. This will help guide all parties to focus on the “six stability” and “six guarantees”; priority should be given to securing employment and people’s livelihood, resolutely winning the fight against poverty, and striving to achieve it. The goal and task of building a well-off society in an all-round way.
The two sessions set the tone: stabilizing the real estate market is still an important policy guide
The government work report of the NPC and CPPCC in 2020 mentions again that "housing and housing should not be speculated". Stabilizing the real estate market is still an important policy guide. Topics such as real estate tax and provident fund reform were not mentioned.
2. Land market
Overall performance: The year-on-year decline in the area of land purchased by real estate development companies has gradually picked up
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From January to May 2020, the area of land purchased by real estate development enterprises was 47.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and the decline gradually picked up; the transaction price of land was 242.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%.
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Some cities have given some relaxation in land policies, including the reduction of payment and reserve requirements, which has increased the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land to a certain extent; on the other hand, it is related to the rapid recovery of the transaction market in some cities. While quickly obtaining pre-sale funds, companies will also be more active in the land market.
Land auction market: Duocheng now has tens of billions of high-quality land plots to promote real estate companies' enthusiasm for land acquisition
The launch of high-quality land parcels in some cities has also promoted the enthusiasm of real estate companies to acquire land. In the first half of 2020, the land market will gradually pick up. In February, Shanghai Xuhui District auctioned 31 billion land parcels. In April, Xiamen Siming District had a total price of over 10 billion land parcels. In May, Shenzhen also had 10 billion land parcels.
3. New home market
Market performance: Residential investment by developers rebounded to the same period last year
From January to May 2020, the national real estate development investment was 4,592 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, residential investment was 3,376.5 billion yuan, the same year-on-year. The newly started area of houses was 695.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 50.88 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%.
Market performance: The area of commercial housing for sale fell to 510 million square meters
As of the end of May 2020, the floor space of commercial housing available for sale nationwide was 517.71 million square meters, a decrease of 4.83 million square meters from the end of April. Among them, the area for sale of residential buildings decreased by 4.36 million square meters, the area for sale of office buildings decreased by 210,000 square meters, and the area for sale of commercial buildings decreased by 240,000 square meters.
Market performance: The transaction volume of new housing and commercial housing in first-tier cities rebounded
From January to May of 2020, the transaction volume of commercial residential buildings in the first-tier four cities fell by 26.7% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the transaction volume in February saw a trough, but the transaction volume rebounded significantly after March. The transaction volume of commercial residential buildings in Shanghai exceeded one million in May. Square meters; in terms of transaction prices, the average transaction price of commercial housing in first-tier cities fluctuates to a certain extent. In May, the average transaction price in Shanghai exceeded 60,000 yuan per square meter.
User behavior: The popularity of new home search in first- and second-tier cities in March increased by more than 30% month-on-month
In March 2020, the interest in finding new houses in first- and second-tier cities increased by more than 30% month-on-month, and the month-on-month increase fell back in April-May, but the popularity of visits maintained a growth trend.
4. Second-hand housing market
User behavior: The popularity of second-hand housing visits in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by more than 10% year-on-year
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In the first half of 2020, among the first-tier cities, Shanghai's second-hand housing search enthusiasm is leading, followed by Beijing, and the popularity of second-hand housing visits in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen has both increased by more than 10% year-on-year;
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Among the new first-tier cities, Chongqing, Chengdu, and Shenyang rank in the top three for second-hand housing visits. The popularity of second-hand housing visits in Chengdu, Changsha and Dongguan increased by more than 10% year-on-year.
User behavior: The broker confidence index has basically remained stable after March
The broker confidence index fluctuated in February 2020. The confidence index fell below 100, rose sharply to 108.2 in March, and then remained basically stable.
5. Rental market
Rent: The average rent of key 19 cities is 40.8 yuan/m², down 1.3% month-on-year
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In the first half of 2020, the average rent in key 19 cities was 40.8 yuan/m²·month, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%.
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