Hundreds of billions of leaders start price shopping, four important news will affect the trend of these sectors
Original 2021-12-03 09:00 Hai Hancai said
1. Photovoltaic central ring price cuts, the expected negatives are fulfilled. Today, the photovoltaic sector will have an inertial downturn. Energy storage and downstream components are wrongly killed by emotions. Stabilization can be intervened.
On December 2, Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. lowered the price of silicon wafers. Compared with the previous price of silicon wafers in November, G1 silicon wafers decreased by 0.52 yuan/piece, and the quotation was 5.15 yuan/piece, a decrease of 9.1%; M6 silicon wafers decreased by 0.72 yuan/piece. The quotation is 5.05 yuan/piece, a drop of 12.48%; the price of G12 silicon wafers (170 μm) is down 0.55 yuan/piece, and the price is 8.55 yuan/piece, a drop of 6.04%. mm, the price is 9.22 yuan/piece.
Zhonghuan Semiconductor Monocrystalline Wafer Price Announcement
P-type monocrystalline silicon wafer price announcement
Before Zhonghuan’s silicon wafer price cut, on November 30, LONGi released the latest price of silicon wafers, which dropped by 0.41 to 0.67 yuan per piece across the board. Through comparison, it is found that, taking silicon wafers with a thickness of 165 microns as an example, the price of Zhonghuan’s silicon wafers G1 and M10 is slightly lower than that of Longi’s silicon wafers, while the price of M6 silicon wafers is quite different, and Zhonghuan is 0.32 yuan/piece lower than Longi’s.
A number of first-tier companies and integrated companies have overseas warehouses, and there are not a few components that come to Hong Kong to negotiate prices. The price of silicon materials and silicon wafers has become a key factor in negotiation, so the game balance point may be advanced. From the perspective of the demand side, there are about 10-30GW of inventory on the downstream module side. Recently, the terminal demand continues to be sluggish. It is difficult for centralized photovoltaic power plants to accept the current quotations for components, and the demand for distributed photovoltaic power plants alone is insufficient. With the decrease in both supply and demand, the price of silicon wafers is expected to fall further.
According to statistics, domestic production of monocrystalline silicon wafers in November was 18.4GW, an increase of 11% year-on-year. It is expected that production in December may drop slightly, and the release of new production capacity will make up for the gap in the reduction in operating rates. The annual output is estimated to be 200GW. The current inventory of silicon wafers needs to be cleared, and the subsequent price reduction of silicon materials may be transmitted to the silicon wafer end. Therefore, it is expected that the price of silicon wafers will fluctuate and go down in December.
2. The fertilizer sector is expected to usher in a rebound today
The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice requiring that the economic operation departments of major coal-producing provinces should urge coal enterprises in the region to honor the medium and long-term contracts signed with fertilizer production enterprises in a timely and full amount, and help other provinces coordinate and implement supplementary coal sources for fertilizer coal contracts. Coal enterprises should increase the supply of coal for fertilizer production, strictly fulfill the signed contracts, and actively re-sign the coal contract for fertilizer production. The scope of the key chemical fertilizer production enterprises involved in the notice covers about 70% of the production capacity of urea and ammonium phosphate, and about 90% of the production capacity of potassium fertilizer, which can effectively guarantee the production and supply of spring plowing chemical fertilizer next year.
1. Comprehensive fertilizer:
1) Liuguo Chemical: urea production capacity: 300,000 tons/year; monoammonium phosphate production capacity: 300,000 tons/year, diammonium phosphate production capacity: 640,000 tons/year; compound fertilizer production capacity: 1.5 million tons/year.
2) Hubei Yihua: DAP production capacity of 1.3 million tons (phosphate fertilizer) + urea production capacity of 1.8 million tons (equity production capacity of 1.21 million tons).
3) Sierte: It has a compound fertilizer production capacity of 1.8 million tons and a monoammonium phosphate (phosphate fertilizer) production capacity of 850,000 tons.
2. Potassium fertilizer:
1) Salt Lake: China's largest potash fertilizer company. As of 2020, my country's total potash fertilizer production capacity is about 13.925 million tons, and Salt Lake alone accounts for 5 million tons. With the gradual improvement of the production process, the production cost of potash fertilizer per ton of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. continues to move downward in the global cost curve.
2) Zangge Holdings: The second largest potash fertilizer manufacturer in China.
3) Potassium International: The company plans to form a potash fertilizer production capacity of at least 3 million tons within 3-5 years. The 1 million-ton project currently being expanded is in the commissioning stage and is expected to reach production by the end of the year; the company will start the second million-ton potash fertilizer production capacity as soon as possible. building. In addition, the company is promoting the acquisition of the 179.8 square kilometers of Pengxia-Nongbo potash mine assets in Khammuang Province, Laos.
4) Oriental Tower: On July 20, it was stated on the investor interaction platform that the current potassium chloride production capacity of Kaiyuan Laos subsidiary is 500,000 tons/year; at the same time, the first phase of the expansion project of Kaiyuan 1.5 million tons of potassium chloride in Laos (500,000 tons) is continuing to advance. After the project is put into production, the production capacity of Kaiyuan potassium chloride in Laos will be increased to 1 million tons/year.
3. Phosphate fertilizer: mainly monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate
1) Yuntianhua: Yuntianhua has phosphate rock reserves of 1.3 billion tons+ (of which about 700 million tons of equity resources), phosphate rock production capacity of 14.5 million tons, and phosphate rock gross profit of 50.87%. The company currently has a production capacity of 700,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate and 4.45 million tons of diammonium phosphate, and the production capacity of ammonium phosphate ranks first in the country.
The company is now one of the largest phosphate rock mining and dressing enterprises in my country. It has the production capacity of wet-purified phosphoric acid and industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate. The company is expected to further expand the production capacity of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate through capacity replacement in the future and fully benefit from phosphate rock Scarcity of resources, and growing demand for phosphoric acid and phosphate products for batteries.
In addition, the company also jointly invested and established a joint venture company Yunnan Fluorophos Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 300 million yuan. The company contributed 147 million yuan in cash and held 49% of the shares. Relying on the resource advantages of fluorine and silicon by-product of phosphate fertilizer, the joint venture company plans to build related projects in Caopu Industrial Park, Anning, Yunnan. The first phase of construction will be 2×15,000 tons/year of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (intermediate product) and co-production of 15,000 tons/year High-quality white carbon black, 5,000 tons/year of lithium hexafluorophosphate, 20,000 tons/year of electronic grade hydrofluoric acid production equipment and supporting facilities are planned to be completed in 2022.
2) Xingfa Group: Xingfa Group is one of the enterprises with the most complete categories and varieties of fine phosphorus products in China.
In terms of raw materials, the company wholly owns 429 million tons of mining rights, holds 70% of the proven reserves of 289 million tons, holds 50% of the proven reserves of 188 million tons, and holds 26% of the proven reserves of 315 million tons. The total controlled phosphate rock resources are 1.221 billion tons. million tons, and 807 million tons of equity resources. Xingfa Group has a phosphate rock production capacity of 5 million tons per year, 2 million tons per year under construction, and a gross profit of phosphate rock of 43.35%.
Xingfa Group has a production capacity of 600,000 tons of ammonium phosphate, including 200,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate and 400,000 tons of diammonium phosphate, and is building a 3 million tons per year low-grade collophosphine beneficiation and deep processing project and a 400,000 tons per year synthetic ammonia device. After completion, the production capacity of ammonium phosphate will increase to 1 million tons per year. The production capacity of sodium hexametaphosphate of Xingfa Group ranks first in the world, and the production capacity of sodium tripolyphosphate ranks first in China. Taisheng Company, a subsidiary of the company, has an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of glyphosate and a supporting production capacity of 100,000 tons of glycine per year.
In addition, in terms of organic silicon, Hubei Xingrui, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xingfa Group, currently has a production capacity of 320,000 tons of organic silicon monomer per year.
Xingfa Group is also involved in electronic chemicals. The company's production capacity ranks among the top in the industry. The holding subsidiary Xingfu Electronics has built an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of electronic grade phosphoric acid, 10,000 tons of electronic grade sulfuric acid, and 30,000 tons of electronic grade mixed liquid. .
3) Hubei Yihua: Hubei Yihua stated on the interactive platform that the company's diammonium phosphate production capacity is 1.3 million tons. The annual output of phosphogypsum is 2.7-3 million tons. The current comprehensive utilization rate is about 30%, and it is expected to reach 60-70% in the next three years. In addition, Hubei Yihua has a production capacity of 3.31 million tons of urea, 1.14 million tons of PVC, and 2.58 million tons of caustic soda.
4) Xinyangfeng: The company currently has a production capacity of 1.8 million tons of monoammonium phosphate (non-industrial grade), and the total production capacity of ammonium phosphate ranks among the top in the country.
The major shareholder of the company has mastered abundant phosphate resources and promised to inject them into the listed company when the time is ripe. According to the EIA report, the company has an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate. The company is expected to further expand the production scale of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate through capacity replacement in the future, and fully benefit from the growth in demand for phosphoric acid and phosphate products for batteries.
5) Zhongyida: The company plans to issue shares to purchase 100% equity of Wengfu Group held by China Cinda and others. Wengfu Group has 360 million tons of phosphate rock reserves, with annual mining and dressing of 7.5 million tons of phosphate rock, 2 million The production capacity is 1 ton of phosphoric acid, 3 million tons of sulfuric acid, 4.5 million tons of phosphorus compound fertilizer, 1 million tons of industrial grade and food grade phosphoric acid, 150,000 tons of sodium phosphate salt, 200 tons of iodine, and 80,000 tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride.
The company is the standard drafting unit of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate for batteries. Wengfu Group has iron phosphate production capacity and plans to establish a joint venture company with Guoxuan Hi-Tech to engage in the production of related products. In the future, it will directly benefit from the growth in demand for phosphoric acid and phosphate products used in batteries.
6) Sirte: Ping'an Phosphate Mine in Kaiyang County, a holding subsidiary of Guizhou Zhengli (holding 55%), has 15.72 million tons of phosphate rock reserves with an average grade of 32.65%.
Guizhou Lufa, a wholly-owned subsidiary, owns two phosphate mines. Among them, Mingniwan Mine has a total resource reserve of 9.5963 million tons, while Yongwen Phosphate Mine has a total resource reserve of 104.3 million tons, with an average grade (P2O5) of 30.96%.
At present, the production capacity of phosphate rock is 1.2 million tons/year, and Yongwen Phosphate Mine is under construction at 3 million tons/year and is expected to reach production next year. By then, it will have a cumulative production capacity of 4.2 million tons/year.
In terms of production capacity, Sierte has: 1.8 million tons of compound fertilizer production capacity, 850,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate production capacity, 500,000 tons of iron powder production capacity, and 40,000 tons of potassium sulfate production capacity.
4. Urea:
1) Yangmei Chemical: It has the capacity of producing 5.2 million tons of urea per year (coal head urea).
2) Yuntianhua has a urea production capacity of 2 million tons per year (gas urea).
3) Hualu Hengsheng: It is one of the leading coal-head urea enterprises in my country. The company has a urea production capacity of 1.8 million tons per year (coal-head urea).
4) China Coal Energy: has a urea production capacity of 1.75 million tons per year (coal head urea).
5) Yuanxing Energy: On June 13, it stated on the investor interaction platform, dear investors, the company’s soda ash production capacity is 1.8 million tons per year, baking soda production capacity is 1.1 million tons per year, and coal production capacity is 4.5 million tons per year. Urea production capacity is 1.54 million tons/year, and methanol is 1 million tons/year (coal-head urea).
6) Lutianhua: On September 10, it stated on the investor interaction platform that the company has a urea production capacity of 1.5 million tons per year (gas head urea).
7) Hubei Yihua: It was stated on the interactive platform in the early stage that the company's current urea production capacity is 1.8 million tons, and its equity production capacity is 1.21 million tons, all of which belong to gas head urea.
8) Lanhua Kechuang: It has a urea production capacity of 1.2 million tons per year (coal-head urea).
9) Huajin Co., Ltd.: The company currently has a production capacity of 1.17 million tons of urea.
10) Sichuan Meifeng: The annual production capacity of urea is 630,000 tons.
11) Shengjitang: The company's chemical product production capacity is 520,000 tons of urea, 300,000 tons of methanol and 100,000 tons of compound fertilizer per year.
12) Liuguo Chemical Industry: urea production capacity: 300,000 tons/year
3. Waiting for the direction of hydrogen energy fuel cells to step back is an opportunity to intervene
Hydrogen energy is an important supplement to electricity. Zhu Yue of CITIC Construction Investment predicts that the scale of hydrogen utilization is expected to increase by more than three times, approaching 100 million tons per year, and will become one of the important carriers of the energy revolution; it is estimated that by 2025, hydrogen energy Progress has been made in the promotion and application of fuel cell vehicles, with a stock of 50,000 to 100,000 vehicles. By 2030, the large-scale application of hydrogen energy and fuel cells will be realized, and 2030-35 will be the key node to fully meet the requirements of industrialization; the utilization of hydrogen is expected The scale is expected to increase by more than 3 times, close to 100 million tons per year. If the reduction of energy intensity is limited, the scale of hydrogen may be even higher.
Focus:
Considering the high demand and direct promotion effect of industrial development policies on technological progress, the main companies in the industrial chain include: Meijin Energy, Binhua, Vision, SinoHytec, Sinoma Technology, Houpu, etc.
Some car companies and equipment companies have invested in research and development and technical reserves of hydrogen fuel cells, including: Weichai Power, Great Wall Motors, SAIC Motor, Moon Environment, etc.
4. Lithium salt continues to rise in price, pay attention to lithium carbonate-related leaders
Focus on: Shenghe Resources, Rongjie Shares
Jiangte Motor: Lepidolite Logic
Shengxin Lithium Energy: Lithium ore reserves are sufficient, and recently went to Ukraine to look for ore sources.
China Mining Resources: Started from international prospecting, with a production capacity of 37,000 tons of lithium salt, the current market value is only 20 billion, and the company has a stable supply of lithium ore.
Salt Lake: Tibet City Investment (key), Mount Everest in Tibet (key), Keda Manufacturing, Zijin Mining
1. Lithium batteries | Lithium salt prices have gradually become clear in a new round of rising prices. Shrinking supply + rising production schedules + low inventory have become the biggest catalysts for price increases. These companies all hold huge lithium ore reserves
The data shows that on the 12th and 2nd, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3,000 yuan/ton, the highest quotation was 208,000 yuan/ton, and the average price reached 205,500 yuan/ton. Since the round of rise, the increase has reached 6.75%. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 20,000 yuan/ton, the highest quotation was 215,000 yuan/ton, and the average price reached 212,500 yuan/ton. 7.59%.
Comments: Huaan Securities Chen Xiao pointed out that due to the entry of winter, the output of salt lakes on the supply side has shrunk to a certain extent, and there is almost no increase in supply. However, the production schedule of lithium batteries on the demand side is increasing month by month, and battery factories and midstream material factories are gradually stocking up before the year, and regional power restrictions are gradually easing demand and further releasing. With the continuous rise of lithium prices and the determination of the nature of storage since the beginning of this year, the inventories of lithium salts of traders and material factories are gradually depleted, and the inventories of all parties in the industry are at a low level. Under the intensified contradiction between supply and demand, spot prices continue to rise, and contract prices among major manufacturers also rise month by month. Lithium prices are still supported and rising by the relationship between supply and demand.
In terms of the company, Rongda Lithium Industry, a subsidiary of Rongjie Co., Ltd., holds the No. 134 vein mining license of Kangding Methyl Card Spodumene Mine, with a mine reserve of 28.99 million tons. Changhe Huali is mainly engaged in the research and development and production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. The company is building a 2.5 million tons/year lithium ore selection project; Jiangte Electric has 3 mining rights and 4 exploration rights for lithium porcelain stone mines. The total reserves of lithium porcelain stone mines are more than 100 million tons. annual production capacity of lithium carbonate, 10,000 tons/year of lithium hydroxide and 5,000 years/year of lithium carbonate production lines are being built; the lithium-tantalum ore reserves in the TANCO mining area under China Mining Resources are 2.08 million tons, and the shareholding company PSC's Zimbabwe's Arcadia lithium mine has resources of 37.4 million tons, and is building a new production line of 15,000 tons/year of lithium hydroxide and 10,000 tons/year of lithium carbonate.
2. Rare earth | Rare earth consumption has exploded, and tight supply and demand have prompted revaluation. This company has mines all over the world and has the largest rare earth mine overseas
Last week, the price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 8.72% to 848,000 yuan/ton. The supply of rare earth magnetic materials was tight, and the price showed an upward trend. Suppliers tend to hold goods and are reluctant to sell, intending to continue to raise prices, and prices are on an upward channel. The tense supply and demand situation in the rare earth field is difficult to ease in the short term. It is expected that the price of light rare earth will stabilize at a high level, and the price of medium and heavy rare earth will still have some driving force.
Comments: Guosen Securities Liu Mengluan pointed out that black rare earths are cleared, and rare earth mining and smelting are strictly controlled in accordance with quotas. The development of the new energy industry has accelerated the demand for magnetic materials, and the consumption of rare earths has exploded. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and other industries, the demand for magnetic materials has exploded, and the rare earth industry has ushered in fundamental changes. It is expected that in the next five years, there will be a long-term gap between the supply and demand of praseodymium and neodymium oxide. Driven by fundamentals, the value of rare earths will usher in a revaluation.
In terms of the company, the rare earth business of Shenghe Resources has formed a relatively complete industrial chain from mining, smelting and separation to deep processing. The annual output of the Pass Mine has exceeded 30,000 tons of REO, and has become the largest rare earth mine outside of China; Minmetals Rare Earth is mainly engaged in the production and operation of rare earth oxides and other products, and two exploration rights are in progress. The company The controlling shareholder is planning a strategic reorganization of related rare earth assets; Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals controls 3 rare earth mining companies, 4 rare earth separation plants, and 1 rare earth metal processing plant, with a separation capacity of 14,000 tons/year of medium and heavy rare earths. The only legal rare earth miner in the province.