New retail refers to a new retail model that uses advanced technology such as artificial intelligence and big data to perfectly integrate online services and offline experiences. E-commerce and offline entities are no longer a competitive relationship, but a win-win relationship. Retail is no longer a simple sales diversion, but a consumer experience that integrates corporate culture and brand value. The ultimate form of retail is the gradual disappearance of the existing e-commerce platform, replaced by an ecosystem of companies owning their own online property trading platform + offline personalized experience stores + new logistics.
Panorama of the new retail industry
Before entering the new retail stage, the retail industry was in the online retail stage. Based on the Internet, many large-scale e-commerce platforms have developed rapidly. New retail has applied new technologies such as big data and cloud computing, deeply integrated online services and offline experience, and is a new retail model. The emergence of new retail has brought a certain impact on the traditional retail industry and the e-commerce industry.
New retail has the characteristics of "online + offline + logistics". Its industrial chain includes omni-channel retail platforms, warehousing and logistics, major new retail formats, mobile payments, and service providers. The main formats include fresh food supermarkets and social e-commerce.
Fresh food e-commerce penetration rate continues to rise, the market size is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan
Among the main forms of new retail, fresh food e-commerce is one of the main forms. In the industry panorama of fresh food e-commerce, there are mainly fresh food suppliers such as Shengnong Group, Vegetable Net, etc. Fresh food e-commerce platforms such as Meicai, Songxiaocai, Dingdong Maicai, Daily Youxian, JD Fresh, etc. , Warehousing logistics such as SF Express, Anxianda and JD Logistics.
In 2019, the market transaction size of China's fresh food e-commerce industry reached 279.62 billion yuan, an increase of 36.7% over the previous year. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, with the support of the "non-contact economy", consumers' demand for fresh produce will increase significantly, and the scale of fresh food e-commerce market transactions will increase significantly. It is expected that by 2023, fresh food e-commerce The scale of market transactions will exceed 800 billion yuan.
The head effect of fresh food e-commerce is obvious
The fresh food e-commerce market is highly concentrated. In 2019, the top 5 companies in the fresh food e-commerce industry accounted for 57.2%. Compared with 2018, the TOP5 share of the industry has declined in 2019. The reason is that there are many players in the fresh food e-commerce market. In addition to the integrated fresh food e-commerce platform, the scale of players in many new business models has grown rapidly. Some "star fresh food e-commerce companies" have emerged, and these companies have divided up a portion of the market share.
In October 2020, the fresh food e-commerce industry "Lao Paoer" Yiguo Fresh announced bankruptcy and reorganization. At present, my country's fresh food e-commerce has passed the stage of low-price subsidies. With the industry reshuffle and the "no contact with the epidemic" With the rise of "economy", the industry will still show a situation of "the strong will always be strong". Preliminary forecasts estimate that the industry CR5 of my country's fresh food e-commerce will reach 65% in 2020.
From the analysis of the typical model of fresh food e-commerce, in 2019, the growth rate of the fresh food e-commerce transaction scale of the pre-warehouse model and the platform-to-home model both exceeded 40.0%, which was higher than the average growth rate of fresh food e-commerce; while the community group model of fresh food E-commerce's low comprehensive cost and flow bonus have attracted the favor of many capitals and players. Since the second half of 2018, it has experienced explosive growth. In 2019, the transaction volume was 47.47 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 534.8%.
Smart warehousing and logistics continue to grow, instant delivery can exceed 300 orders
As an indispensable warehousing logistics in new retail, it assumes an end-to-end and end-to-point role. my country’s warehousing and logistics industry is becoming more intelligent. In the panorama of smart warehousing logistics, it is divided into application layer, technical layer and basic layer.
According to the statistics of China Federation of Things, the total social logistics of the country in 2020 is 300.1 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 3.5% at comparable prices. In quarterly terms, the growth rates in the first quarter, the first half and the first three quarters were -7.3%, -0.5%, and 2.0% respectively. The growth of logistics scale continued to recover, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter accelerated further.
In terms of composition, the total logistics of industrial products was 269.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% at comparable prices; the total logistics of agricultural products was 4.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0%; the total logistics of units and residents was 9.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; The total logistics of imported goods was 14.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9%; the total logistics of renewable resources was 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.9%.
Since the official statistics did not divide logistics into retail logistics, considering that the core of new retail lies in the reconstruction of the "people and goods market", for consumer terminal logistics, it is mainly the real-time logistics industry, so the perspective of the real-time logistics industry is forward-looking to radiate the retail industry Logistics.
From the perspective of the scale of market orders, the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020 has had a significant impact on the instant logistics industry. The expected growth rate in 2020 is significantly lower than that in 2019. However, at present, the overall development prospects of the instant logistics industry are promising. It is expected that there will be a significant recovery in 2021.
From the perspective of the overall real-time logistics industry in the past two years, the number of entrants has continued to increase. For example, the instant logistics brand of SF Express under SF Express is independent; Didi launches "Didi Run Errand" to enter the real-time logistics market. Market activity has increased significantly, and competition is significant, which is conducive to the healthy development of the overall immediate logistics industry.
Third-party payment duopoly new entrants have few opportunities
Third-party payment is an intermediary between merchants and customers for payment processing and settlement. The profit model is to charge customers a service fee in proportion to the transaction volume. According to the Regulations for the Administration of Payment Services for Non-Financial Institutions formulated by the People's Bank of China in 2010, third-party payment services can be roughly divided into the following three categories: online payment, issuance and acceptance of prepaid cards, and bank card acquiring. Among them, online payment includes Internet payment, mobile payment, fixed telephone payment and digital TV payment.
In the third quarter of 2020, the scale of China's third-party mobile payment transactions increased to 65 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate was higher than the growth level of the previous four quarters. The main reasons for the increase in transaction size during the quarter were:
(1) Both online and offline businesses have seen significant year-on-year increases;
(2) The impact of the epidemic has further reduced, and the superimposed summer and double festivals are coming, and the scale of QR code payment transactions has increased significantly;
(3) The continuous penetration of online financial services in the cultivation of users' minds has made the financial sector gradually become a strong driving force for the growth of the mobile payment market.
In the second quarter of 2020, Alipay, Tenpay and UnionPay Commerce ranked the top three with 49.16%, 33.74% and 6.93% of the market share in my country's third-party payment integrated transaction market.
With the rapid development of the mobile Internet, and the online traffic scene has become a monopoly and reached a period of saturation, the offline scene has become a gold mine for third-party payment giants to tap.
At present, my country's third-party payment C-end market competition pattern has basically taken shape. Institutions such as Tenpay (WeChat Pay) and Alipay have relied on QR code payment to seize the offline market. According to the data released by Analysys, in the second quarter of 2020, Alipay and Tenpay ranked the top two with 55.39% and 38.47% market share respectively.
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New retail under the "non-contact economy" rides the wind and waves
With the huge market size of the retail industry and current consumption upgrades, the sluggish traditional retail industry, and the slowdown in online shopping retail growth, major e-commerce giants and traditional retail brand companies have explored new retail, and they have also attracted a large amount of investment funds. Entering the market, 2018 was the climax of the development of new retail. There were 92 investment events throughout the year, with an investment amount of 15.4 billion yuan.
Affected by the new crown epidemic, the "contactless economy" has emerged. In 2020, new retail will still have 121.6 investment events under the influence of the capital winter, with an investment amount of 4.5 billion yuan. On the whole, new retail will become the darling of capital in 2020.
Note: The time is as of the end of February 2021.
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