Reprinted from billion euros net:
March 31, 2019, hosted by the Shenzhen Municipal People's Government, China Association figures "2019 China (Shenzhen) Leadership Summit" held in Shenzhen Wuzhou Guest House, billion euros as support media invited.
Around 10:11, Tsinghua University, president of the National Institute of Finance, Mr. Zhu delivered a keynote speech, "the world's three breaking changes and artificial intelligence industrial economic development." The following is a speech Mr. Zhu finishing point, the full text of the speech is attached:
Thank you for inviting meeting and the enthusiasm of chairman Wu Ying introduced. Glad to be back again this podium, two years ago I spoke here in his capacity as a pseudo-artificial intelligence expert "future of artificial intelligence to subvert the world." Today I would like to return to duty economists, speaking about "breaking three world economy and changes in the industrial development of artificial intelligence."
Crisis in decades, the world economy has undergone profound structural changes. Aging population, climate change, the light of the economic structure (that is, people's consumption structure and consumption tends Service). From an economist's point of view, we called exogenous variables, we only accept and adapt to these not the people's will change. These three changes to the AI also provides a magnificent development stage, because the artificial intelligence can help solve these three problems, and find the blue ocean in the future development of the process, this is a topic I want to talk about today.
Aging population
According to the research, the world population of 7.5 billion this year, is still continuously growing. Supply of developed and emerging countries in labor economy reached a peak in 2008, then gradually decline to around 2040, will drop to zero until the negative. At the same time, rising labor supply in Africa. A large global supply of labor market, employment, immigration will later become a big problem. The biggest problem is the aging of the global population in 2050 than today, a net increase of 2.3 billion, a net increase of population mainly in the 60-70 age bracket, with little growth in 40-50 age bracket, so the whole society the aging trend is obvious.
Serious phenomenon of aging in developed countries is already obvious to all, Japan is one of the most typical of aging countries. Compared to 2050 and today, almost all of Japan's net increase of population above 80 years of age, aging changes the structure of demand, supply structure and government policy. Japan's overall industrial structure during the 1990s to 2016 has fundamentally changed the whole construction, manufacturing, services, financial services are shrinking, communications, technology and health services industry on the rise, not all government spending change, only a sharp rise in health care spending, this is an inevitable trend of the aging process.
In the aging process, the sharp decline in real estate-construction and real estate sales in Japan, after also rising after a sharp decline in land prices. We say that Japan's real estate bubble affected the economy, this is right, but the foam is the trigger point, if a bubble, then it will fall to rebound, rebound is because there is no reason why this bubble caused a fear of aging, real estate never recovered . Aging is an irreversible process, and today we have complete and accurate information on aging, because this is born the concept of age extend over, the error is extremely little, the economic structure of society as a whole, demand structure, behavior of the structure will occur deep changes, and today is already happening. So this is one of the largest exogenous variables.
2050 China today compared to a net increase of population in the 60-80 age bracket, fell the most powerful Chinese young adults and most experienced middle-level cadres 20-40 age group. Beijing will be the most serious phenomenon of aging city, followed by Guangdong Province, in 2035 compared to today, the labor force aged 30-45 will be reduced by more than 50 million, will increase the population concentrated in the 60-70 age group . I think all of us will see in 2035, I do not know if I can see. Many people here can see even in 2050, you probably will be a 70-year-old man and 80-year-old age group at that time, and therefore will be very serious phenomenon of aging, which will have a significant impact on the Chinese economy. Therefore, the future of China's aging problem should not be underestimated.
climate change
Today, climate change became humanity's greatest challenge. If human beings to 2060 can not govern climate, most of the regions of the world will enter a hot, dry environment, able to adapt to human habitation only in Siberia, northern Canada as well as small parts of Africa Russia. Very important reason is climate change, a recent sharp rise in carbon emissions millennium, due to the impact of human activities, especially the sharp rise in oil and energy consumption.
GDP per capita emissions of China's energy consumption, China is 1.01%, Japan 0.19%, the world average is 0.42%, so China is much higher than the world average level, in order to improve the climate change, the most important means of reducing energy consumption and improve energy efficiency. After 2020, China's investment environment will be based on the world-leading position, even more than the United States. Chinese in urban environmental protection, industrial pollution control, the entire investment in renewable energy are rising sharply.
Due to the rapid development of global technology, renewable energy prices fell sharply, today's global electric vehicle and hybrid vehicle production accounted for only 1.12% of the proportion of total global car, China objective is that by 2030 this proportion should upgrade to 40%, which would is an epoch-spanning the entire automotive industry will be disruptive reorganization, the entire panel, conduction, cars, the chassis will change, will form the integrity of the industry chain, and will change the investment and future economic structure and consumption structure .
Light of the economic structure
Since the financial crisis, global economic growth there is a rebound after rebound has been slow growth in the past 10 years, global economic growth is lower than the level before the economic crisis, the next two or three years the economy will continue to slowly decline, which is the global economy a big trend. In this big trend, the serious shortage of investment, the level of investment in European and American countries fell by 25 percentage points of GDP, lack of investment because the industry sustained lightweight. European countries and Japan, the services sector accounted weights are high, people demand for material goods and services preferences changing. Spring Festival this year we consume entertainment, tourism and other than the consumption of pork and alcohol consumption on health far exceeds consumer demand for refrigerators, color TV, so the trend of consumption in the service sector, towards light industrialization in lightweight.
Comparison with manufacturing labor productivity of the service sector labor productivity, we find that labor productivity in the manufacturing sector is still higher than the service sector labor productivity by 20%. If this condition is very troublesome to maintain, then, because of the declining share of manufacturing, high labor industry in decline, services rise, the service sector labor productivity did not go up, economic growth is bound to slow down. China's market-oriented services, including electricity providers, video games and so on labor productivity is very high, and almost the world almost the same level. But China's non-market services, education and health, labor productivity is far below the level of development of the country and the world the same stage of China.
Industrial development of artificial intelligence
If we integrate the three major changes today to help solve the three most important changes and the most powerful tools of artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence is subverting the future. It's all in innovative products and services, changes in manufacturing, services, military, defense, and material wealth of production and distribution, even humanity itself. We put the latest in the world of artificial intelligence application classification: machine vision, speech and sound perception, natural language processing, search, information processing, knowledge extraction, predictive analysis, planning and exploration agency, etc., which is in the application of artificial intelligence the most common areas of technology, and can also make a significant impact in three major changes in the economic structure I have just mentioned in.
Special aspects of artificial intelligence to produce a significant impact on manufacturing automation robots, Chinese industrial robots per million workers have a density far below the world, lower than South Korea and Singapore and other countries. Pony talked about the search, which is automation, research and development, operations, sales, middle management is now very common in industrial operations which target customers how to optimize throughput, predictive planning, which are artificial in reality intelligent universal application, so the artificial intelligence to help companies automate, windows automation, preventive maintenance, device drivers, and so the whole process simulation visual inspection already a mature technology.
AI get through the manufacturing three dimensions, the first dimension in the manufacturing level, it is from the IT, the cloud layer manufacturing entity until all open, to the level of the production line, it's never happened before in. I saw yesterday Haier's CTO, he worked at Microsoft, Haier has done very well to get through the vertical plane, greatly improving the management and control of the entire process.
Precision agriculture is becoming increasingly common, small-scale experiments have begun to do, scale promotion will not last long. Beijing's pollution has been greatly improved, we may not know about it later and artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence by remote control able to focus on each objective observation of a one square kilometer area, greatly improving the accuracy and automated comparison of cloud computing and computing, cloud informed immediately of any problems. Previously observed only by designated people, it is now completely remote sensing, cloud and machine, so more and more Beijing blue sky.
Medical wisdom from remote to assist, programs, research and development, operations, marketing, with the retina to analyze cases of cerebrovascular disease has matured, combined with human breast cancer for women, able error rate dropped to 0.5 percent, which is a leap progress. Therefore, thanks to artificial intelligence applications in the medical industry, the medical industry is very rapid development, the development of the next five years will rise exponentially.
All the contents sum up, a decade of crisis, the world economy has undergone profound structural change, population aging, climate change, the economic structure of the three light exogenous variables are changing the world, to artificial intelligence provides a magnificent stage . To meet the challenges of artificial intelligence to help these industries to solve its problems, and get their own development in this process, changes in these industries, and thus change the course of history. I think AI is a case we see today, it is the ability to fundamentally change the best tools and channels elderly Japanese recession, so the two together, the future is a very bright and challenging future. thank you all!
