Since the beginning of this year, the new energy second-hand car market has shown signs of recovery. According to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the first half of this year, the transaction volume of used new energy vehicles reached 156,000, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, which was 24.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of traditional fuel vehicles. According to Guazi’s used car big data, in October this year, new energy used cars had the highest transaction growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 348.5%, which was more than 10 times the growth rate of fuel used car transactions in the same period.
At the same time, the purchase price and sales price of new energy used cars are also rising all the way. According to a report released by the domestic second-hand car trading online service platform "Tiantian Paiche", in September this year, the average online transaction price of new energy second-hand cars was 96,558.14 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 10.2% and a year-on-year increase of 35%. It can be seen that the future development potential of the new energy used car market is huge.
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Second-hand new energy vehicles are popular
The China Automobile Dealers Association found through comparative analysis of the service life of new energy second-hand vehicles in recent years: nearly 63% of new energy vehicles on the market will be sold after four years of use. Taking four years of vehicle age as a sales standard line, based on the sales volume of 1.206 million new energy vehicles in 2019, the estimated transaction volume of new energy used vehicles in the next four years is: 750,000, 860,000, 2.21 million, and 3.42 million. Judging from this estimated data, the transactions in the new energy second-hand car market will increase year by year in the next four years. The new energy second-hand car market is becoming increasingly popular, which is affected by multiple factors.
On the one hand, due to external factors such as the decline of new energy subsidies, difficulties in the delivery of new cars, and the increase in the market share of new energy vehicles, the prices of new energy used cars have picked up. Since March 2022, more than 30 auto brands have raised the prices of new energy vehicles, such as BYD, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Leap, etc. Their price increases range from 1,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan . While car prices are rising, the order delivery cycle is also extending. For example, the delivery cycle of the best-selling models of new car manufacturers such as Xiaopeng, Weilai, and Jikr is more than 3 months. So in this case, it is naturally a good choice to choose a new energy used car with better condition and lower price.
On the other hand, due to internal factors such as the gradual facilitation of used car circulation policies and the improvement of after-sales support for new energy used cars by OEMs, consumers' confidence in buying new energy used cars has been boosted. For example, since the beginning of this year, relevant departments have announced the postponement of new energy purchase tax exemptions, and explicitly supported the large-scale development of second-hand car circulation. Accounting treatment of used cars, invoice issuance, cross-regional circulation of vehicles, transfer registration and other links, in order to better promote the consumption of automobiles and the continued vitality of the second-hand car market.
In addition, some OEMs represented by new forces, based on business considerations, have also achieved a certain degree of layout for officially certified used cars. For example, used cars certified by Weilai can enjoy the same battery rights as new cars that are "rechargeable, replaceable, and upgradeable". "1 year or 30,000 kilometers" exclusive rights and interests for used cars, etc.
In addition, Xiaopeng Motors also launched the X-Certified official certified used car brand during the Guangzhou Auto Show in November last year. Among them, Anxinbuy provides a complete vehicle condition report while the old car is being maintained regularly; Anxinyong provides the same basic services as official certified used cars and new cars. This series of official guarantee services for new energy used cars has greatly enhanced consumers' trust in new energy used cars.
The turning point has not yet come
Although this year's new energy used car market is hotter than ever, the turning point has not yet come, and the overall transaction volume of new energy used cars is still not high. According to statistics from the Ministry of Public Security, as of the end of September, the number of new energy vehicles in the country reached 11.49 million, accounting for 3.65% of the total number of cars. The transaction of second-hand cars is closely related to the number of ownership, and in the new energy used car transaction data, some new cars are exported to overseas markets after being licensed, so the transaction volume between car dealers and individuals is still relatively low.
First, the circulation and trading channels for new energy used cars have not yet been formed, which greatly restricts the circulation of used cars in a wider range. After several iterations of the used car Internet model, it still fails to effectively solve the problems of opaque car conditions and long transaction chains. This has led to a strong demand for users to obtain information on the used car platform, but they are discouraged from purchasing. According to relevant data, from 2019 to 2021, the conversion rate of new energy used cars will only increase by 1.5%.
Second, the current valuation system for new energy used cars is not perfect, resulting in a low preservation rate for new energy used cars. The current evaluation system for new energy used vehicles is developed based on the evaluation system for used fuel vehicles. Due to the large differences between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles in terms of structure and parts, previous evaluation experience is not applicable to new energy vehicles. car. That is to say, the state detection and evaluation of new energy second-hand vehicles is still in the exploratory stage.
The main factors affecting the evaluation of new energy used cars include: new car price, vehicle age, mileage, brand configuration, current vehicle condition, maintenance and quality assurance, transfer of ownership, etc. But in addition to these, the power battery (endurance) is the most critical factor affecting the valuation of new energy used cars, because the price and cost of power batteries account for the main part of the price of bare cars. At this stage, many new energy second-hand car manufacturers and OEMs have vague and inaccurate assessments of three electric vehicles. They only rely on battery life and other external performance capabilities to reverse battery power, and lack mature assessment techniques and tools.
Furthermore, the lack of evaluation standards will further affect the development of new energy used car financing business. The auto finance industry has the characteristics of long business chain, large capital occupation, and long cycle. At present, the auto finance market does not have complete data on the service life of second-hand new energy vehicles, which will lead to increased risks before financial loans, and the safety of funds cannot be guaranteed.
Players from all walks of life are rushing in
In order to solve the problems of opaque new energy used car transactions and unprofessional testing, various players have set foot in the new energy used car track, but their focus on entering the new energy used car field is different.
Firstly, for new energy car companies such as Wei Xiaoli, they have introduced new energy second-hand car value preservation measures, and are committed to solving the pain points of consumers buying second-hand cars such as rapid depreciation and insufficient after-sales service capabilities. In the new energy second-hand car market, the preservation rate of cars has always been a concern and anxiety for consumers. In recent years, new energy car companies have given used cars the same value as new cars through the authoritative official used car certification system and perfect after-sales service, improving consumers' trust in the value retention rate of used cars.
In addition to Weilai and Xiaopeng mentioned above, WM Motor has launched a new retail model of "WM Motor Direct Purchase", which promises users an official value-preserving repurchase rights of up to 40% off for naked cars for two years. One year after Tesla entered the Chinese market, it launched an official second-hand car service: Officially certified Tesla second-hand cars will continue to enjoy the 8-year battery and drive unit warranty of the new car, and the 4-year or 80,000-kilometer warranty. For the remaining warranty, you can also enjoy an additional 1-year or 20,000-kilometer used car warranty.
Second, unlike new energy car companies that focus on extending user brand value, for used car trading platforms such as Guazi used car and Uxin used car, they pay more attention to the transparency of transaction channels. These second-hand car e-commerce platforms use the "online + offline" model to conquer cities and territories in the new energy second-hand car market. Specifically, while establishing an online platform to publicize second-hand vehicle information, they also established offline stores to facilitate consumers to view and inspect vehicles offline. Through various efforts to eliminate "information gaps", they are committed to making transaction channels more transparent.
Thirdly, for formalized and branded car dealers, they provide consumers with a cost-effective car buying experience by virtue of the advantages of well-known domestic OEMs in brand marketing and after-sales guarantee. For example, Yongda Used Cars, relying on the marketing advantages of extensive offline entity authorized outlets all over the country, provides consumers with professional used car certification, transaction and quality assurance services, and actively promotes the export of new energy used cars and the repurchase business of manufacturers' vehicles.
According to Yongda Auto's 2022 semi-annual financial report, Yongda Auto has obtained nearly 70 independent new energy outlet authorizations, covering various store types such as supermarket showrooms, independent after-sales services, delivery service centers, and comprehensive 4S stores. The latest licenses acquired by Yongda Automobile include popular independent new energy brands such as AITO, Xiaopeng, BYD, smart, Lotus, Euler, Zhiji, and Lantu.
Can the heat last?
The recovery of the new energy second-hand car market is true, and the price increase is also true, but this does not mean that new energy second-hand cars have been fully recognized by consumers, and it is unclear whether its popularity will last.
First, the problem of the rapid depreciation of new energy used cars cannot be resolved in the short term. Both car dealers and consumers are cautious about this. Compared with fuel vehicles, the overall value retention rate of new energy used vehicles is still low. According to statistics from the China Automobile Dealers Association, the average 1-year value preservation rate of traditional fuel-fueled used cars remains at 85.6%, and the 3-year value retention rate is 72.6%. In comparison, the one-year average value preservation rate of pure electric vehicles is 71.5%, and the three-year period is only 51%. That is to say, if you buy a car for 200,000 yuan and sell it three years later, the average fuel car can be sold for 145,000 yuan, while the average electric car can only be sold for 102,000 yuan.
In addition, the price of power batteries is greatly affected by raw materials, and the price cannot be kept stable for a long time. For example, in October this year, Tesla suddenly announced a substantial price cut on the Model 3 and Model Y sold in mainland China, ranging from 14,000 yuan to 37,000 yuan. Among them, the Model Y long-endurance version has a drop of nearly 10%. Therefore, the price of new energy vehicles will either increase several times a year, or suddenly drop sharply. This is too risky for car dealers to accept the car.
Second, the current new energy second-hand car market recognizes popular models of big brands, and it is difficult for niche brands to survive. According to the report on the value retention rate of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the value retention rate of mainstream pure electric vehicles is 78.12% for the NIO ES6, 76.06% for the BYD Han EV, and 76.06% for the Tesla Model 3. 73.35%, Xiaopeng P7 is 72.59%, Ideal ONE is 71.10%, and Weilai ES8 is 62.98%. It is not difficult to see that different new energy vehicle products have different value retention rates, and big brands with high value retention rates will always be the first choice for used car dealers.
Third, most of the consumer groups facing the new energy second-hand car market are more sensitive to prices and focus on cost performance, which leads to the fact that the price of new energy second-hand cars will not be too high. According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, in February 2022, the transaction price of about 70% of the new energy second-hand vehicles in the country will be less than 80,000 yuan, of which 30% will be less than 30,000 yuan. The depreciation of vehicle technology due to battery technology and excessive iteration speed, as well as the expected depreciation caused by unstable use of vehicle functions, will have a certain negative impact on the new energy used car market.
Obviously, the increase in demand for second-hand new energy vehicles and the increase in transaction prices are only temporary phenomena caused by the increase in new car prices. It will indeed lead to an increase in the circulation of second-hand new energy vehicles in a short period of time. It needs to be further verified by the market.