Lecture 1: The Future of Information Technology Development - Some Understandings and Reflections
1. Judgment on the development trend of information technology
1. Information Technology: From Industry Multiplier to Industry Disruptor
Information technology is ubiquitous, and more and more traditional industries are beginning to produce subversive innovations
Retail, wholesale, manufacturing, robotics, automotive, energy, advertising, journalism, communications, logistics, hospitality and tourism...
2. A new generation of information technology has become a consensus
The new generation of information technology generally refers to the new platform, new model and new thinking formed on the Internet and its extended network under the trend of networking, ubiquity and intelligence.
a. It has greatly promoted the penetration of information technology into human society and the natural world (human-machine-material fusion)
b. Opened the main development line of application innovation and application-oriented technological innovation (innovation-driven development)
New thinking: Computational thinking, Internet thinking and big data have brought a new way of thinking to the development of information technology and industries
New model: The new platform makes cloud computing, mobile computing, embedded computing and other new computing and application models popularized
New platform: Internet and its extension mobile Internet and Internet innovation platform
3. The development law of information technology
The development of information technology has always revolved around the three goals of capability, application and cost
Ability: The pursuit of high ability (such as function, performance, intelligence, ease of use, complexity control, etc.) is the objective demand of information technology, and it is also the subjective desire of human beings to pursue the limits of science and technology
Application: The main reason for the rapid development of information technology and industry lies in the breadth, depth and urgent procedures of application
Cost: The realization of information technology and applications requires a lot of manpower, time, capital, materials, energy consumption and other costs
4. Information technology development stage
The main line of information technology development is alternately dominated by capabilities and applications
From 1995 to 2040 (IT2.0), application and cost-oriented technology and integrated innovation have become the main line of information technology development. New is the main line of development of information technology. In 1995, Internet applications began to boom.
After 2040 (IT3.0), technological innovation oriented to capability and cost will become the main line of information technology development again. The three intertwined revolutions mentioned in the book "The Singularity is Near" are genetic technology (intersection of information and biology), nanotechnology (intersection of information and the physical world), and machine intelligence (strong artificial intelligence)
5. Judgment on the status and trend of information technology from 2015 to 2025
information security
Application layer: cloud computing, mobile Internet, social network, Internet of Things, big data, smart city, etc.
Platform layer: application support
System Layer: Communication and Computing
Base Layer: Theory and Devices
Principle Layer: Mathematics and Physics
Ubiquitous intelligence in applications and services, cross-integration of systems and platforms, breakthroughs in foundations and principles, information security situation is becoming more and more serious, industrial development pays attention to ecosystems
6. Ubiquitous intelligence in applications and services
The trend of networking, ubiquitous and intelligent information technology contains the vision of harmonious development of human-machine-material, applications and services have become ubiquitous and increasingly intelligent
a. Information system
The mobile Internet makes the integration of users and information technology ubiquitous all the time
Cloud computing makes information technology as easy to obtain and use as water and electricity, and the cost is getting lower and lower
Big data is a "natural phenomenon" for the further development of information technology and its applications. The fusion of data contains knowledge and wisdom.
b. Human society
Social network is the fusion of information technology and human society
c. Physical system
The Internet of Things makes information technology and the physical world begin to merge
Human-computer interaction is extended to human-computer-object interaction.
7. Cross-integration of system and platform
1) Communication and computing systems continue to improve the capability limit
a. Broadband communication uses core devices and optical network innovation to continuously improve transmission rate, capacity and distance (transmission capacity increases by 1,000 times in 10 years)
b. Wireless communication continues to develop and optimize the utilization of spectrum resources (communication rate increases by 10 times per generation)
c. High-performance computing has steadily moved from petaflops to tens of petaflops through architectural innovations (performance increased by 1,000 times in 10 years)
d. The CPU strives to continue Moore's Law through multi-core, new materials and new processes (performance increases by 1 times every 18 months)
e. Storage to meet the continuous growth of data volume through media optimization and innovation (the storage capacity of tape and hard disk is doubled every 12-18 months)
f. Software to control the continuous growth of scale and complexity through software engineering and system software (mainstream software code volume increases 10 times in 10 years)
2) System and platform
a. Communication computing: The hardware of the communication node is composed of a general routing + computing structure, which reduces the cost of communication design, manufacture and update
b. Computational networking: It has become mainstream to complete computing tasks collaboratively by multiple computers connected through a network.
c. Software defines everything: separate hardware functions and management, and implement hardware management through software to flexibly meet application requirements
d. The rapid development of the Internet and the mutual penetration of other network communication technologies tend to eventually merge into a unified network architecture
8. Foundations and principles breed change
a. Integrated circuits have entered the "post-Moore" era, and the feature size of transistors has approached the physical limit
b. "Beyond Moore" opens up new ideas for the development of integrated circuits, using advanced packaging technology to integrate them into high value-added integrated circuit products
c. New devices and new materials emerge in an endless stream, silicon-based light, carbon-based
d. Emerging cross-domain computing theory breeds change
- The technical reserves of quantum communication and computing are far from complete
- Biological and molecular calculations are difficult from theory to practice
-Brain-like computing is advancing rapidly, and there is dawn
9. The information security situation is becoming more and more severe
The connotation of information security has gradually expanded with the development of information technology from stand-alone to network to human-machine-material integration, and the threats faced are becoming more and more serious.
Computer virus attack and defense with the help of the Internet -> cyberspace security monitoring through various networks and other means -> Cyberspace security monitoring based on human-machine-material fusion
There are essential differences in the extension and connotation of the three concepts
10. Industrial development focuses on ecosystems
Ecosystem has become the main form of information industry development and competition, and open source is the main mode of information industry ecosystem construction
-Open source and crowdsourcing have brought about the rise of a new generation of software and hardware ecosystems, involving individuals and organizations all over the world, heterogeneous and diverse development and operation tools and environments, and application systems with complex and changeable functions, becoming a new generation of information technology capacity building mainstream model.
11. Development of Information Technology Strategy of Developed Countries and BRICS Countries
United States: Internet, social computing (e.g. crowdsourcing), perception and interaction (new sensing, etc.), big data, innovation in software development, high performance computing, scalable systems, cybersecurity, and trusted computing
EU: next-generation computing systems, infrastructure for the Future Internet, digital content management for ICT, human-computer interaction, etc.
Japan and South Korea: next-generation supercomputers (100P in 2015, E-class capability in 2020), pervasive networks, next-generation communication networks, information security technology, home and public robotics, smart cities
Russia:
- Make big data processing, computer training, human-computer interaction, robotics, quantum and optical technology, information security as long-term priority R&D projects for the next 10-15 years
- In the short term, breakthroughs will be made in the technical fields of audio and video search, data array processing, new data storage (including new storage media), supercomputing, information security (biometric identification, threat control), cloud computing, human-computer interface, navigation, and testing. .
12. Current needs and challenges of information technology development
From 2015 to 2025, it is necessary to solve how to realize new applications and low costs through new thinking, new models and new platforms on top of classical theories and devices, while exploring fundamental breakthroughs in basic theories and devices, and entering the 3.0 era as soon as possible
2. my country's development needs and problems
1. National needs
my country regards the application of information technology as a new engine for promoting growth. General Secretary Xi pointed out that "the world has entered a new economic development period dominated by the information industry", and emerging industries based on the integration of information network technology will lead the new normal with the new economy.
Internet+ Action Plan, National Big Data Strategy, Network Power Strategy, Made in China 2025
2. The "foot" and "deficiency" of my country's information technology
a. my country has become a big country in information industry and application
In 2015, China's IT spending reached 2.24 trillion yuan, which is expected to increase by 5.3% over the previous year, accounting for nearly 10% of the world's total, second only to the United States
As of November 2015, the number of mobile Internet users in my country has exceeded 905 million, and the number of Internet broadband access users has exceeded 210 million, ranking first in the world
b. Internet application innovation ability and level world advanced level
Alibaba, the world's largest e-commerce service provider, completed the world's largest IPO financing
Tencent QQ and WeChat are the largest PC and mobile instant messaging applications in my country, and both are among the top ten in the world
c. The technical integration and system production capacity for special purpose and low-end products has reached the world's advanced level
Tianhe remains the world's No. 1 high-performance computer, but lacks application and service capabilities
Huawei becomes the world's No. 1 communication equipment supplier, but high-end equipment lags far behind
my country's mobile phone production ranks first in the world, Huawei and Xiaomi are second only to Samsung and Apple in mobile phone sales, but they are completely dependent on Google's Android ecosystem
d. "Hollowing" and "low-end" are still the core issues of my country's information technology development
CPU, operating system, database management system and other basic software and hardware have been missing for a long time
High-end devices, high-end ICT equipment, high-performance applications cannot be produced or the production capacity is seriously insufficient
e. The lack of independent innovation capability makes it difficult for my country's information industry to develop innovation-driven development
Cloud computing, mobile Internet, social network, Internet of Things, big data, smart city, etc. all follow and copy the United States
The deployment of basic cutting-edge technologies has been weak for a long time, and the existing technology evaluation system is not conducive to independent innovation
f. The lack of independent research and development and industrialization capabilities makes it difficult to guarantee my country's network security
The domestic ICT system has long dealt with the embarrassing situation of "immature and immature"
The core of ICT industry competition has changed from the industry chain to the ecosystem. my country has no experience and capabilities in the ecosystem, the combination of production, education and research has not been smooth, and relevant laws and regulations have been lacking for a long time.
3. Big data opens the third wave of informatization
Informatization 1.0: The digitalization stage characterized by stand-alone applications in 1995
Informatization 2.0: The Networking Stage Characterized by Networked Applications in 2015
Informatization 3.0: The intelligent stage characterized by deep data mining and integrated application in 2015
Global data total statistics (Data source: IDC)
In 2003, 5 million TB, in 2009, about 800 million TB, in 2012, about 2.7 billion TB, in 2020, it is estimated to be 44 billion TB
4. Success stories of big data applications continue to emerge
a. Internet data
Google uses the natural language big data of the Web to complete the translation of more than 70 languages
Google uses web search records to predict flu trends
b. Scientific experiment data
The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center studies the laws of global climate change behind extreme weather by participating in the analysis of large-scale spatiotemporal data sets
c. IoT data
California's grid system comprehensively analyzes data from smart systems including weather, sensors, and automated metering devices
d. Organize business data
Analyze financial data, DNA samples, language data, video clips, maps and other data held by U.S. government intelligence agencies and financial institutions
5. Characteristics of current big data applications
a. From the perspective of application level: there are more descriptive and predictive applications, and less instructive applications
b. From the perspective of data sources: there are many applications based on a single data source, many applications based on existing data sets, few applications based on multi-source polymorphic data, and few applications based on active data collection
c. From the point of view of analysis model: there are more applications of "model-oriented" category, and less application of "demand-oriented" category
6. The era of data-driven intelligence is coming
From the perspective of implementing artificial intelligence
Initial: Hard-coded intelligence. With advanced programming, hardcoding human "predictions" into the program
Long-term development: rule-based intelligence. Fact base + rule base + logical reasoning Typical results: expert system
Current Trend: Data-Driven Intelligence. Use machine learning, statistical analysis and other methods to discover laws and knowledge from data Typical results: Google Translate
7. 60 years of artificial intelligence
a. In 1956, Dartmouth College, the concept of AI was born, and there have been two research avenues for a long time
b. Logic-based knowledge representation and reasoning/knowledge base—simulating human logical thinking
The mainstream approach of artificial intelligence in the 1960s and 1990s, expressing knowledge with logic and solving logical abstract problems through reasoning
Main challenge: Overcome the limitations of classical first-order predicate logic (cannot express incomplete knowledge, cannot express cognitive negation rules such as), and improve its ability to express knowledge and logical reasoning
Research on nonmonotonic reasoning in the 1970s-mid 1980s
Research on Knowledge Representation and Reasoning of Answer Set Programs Beginning in the Late 1980s
As well as the research started in the 1990s that tried to use answer set logic to represent rules with cognitive negation
c. Statistics-based machine learning—simulating human experience thinking
Started in the 1970s, starting with the use of probability statistics for language recognition
8. Discrimination and Analysis of Several Concepts
a. Several current formulations of intelligence
-Artificial intelligence, machine intelligence
-Data intelligence, computational intelligence
In essence, they are all transforming "intelligent problems" into computational problems (logical reasoning or data processing)
b. Can computers really have "human intelligence"?
Human-like intelligence vs brain-like intelligence
c. The three levels of human-like intelligence
Software + Knowledge Base
Software + self-evolving knowledge base
Self-evolving software + self-evolving knowledge base
Lecture 2: Blockchain
1. Definition
Blockchain is an innovative application model of computer technologies such as distributed data storage, point-to-point transmission, consensus mechanism, and encryption algorithm in the Internet era.
Blockchain has the characteristics of distributed, trustless, time-stamped, asymmetric encryption and smart contracts.
The blockchain deployment mode is divided into public chain, alliance chain and proprietary chain.
2. The evolution route of blockchain applications
2008, Coinage, Blockchain1.0: Decentralized Bitcoin (Bit Coin), Cryptocurrency Digital Currency and Payment System
In 2012, coinage, Blockchain2.0: Decentralization of the smart asset and smart contract market, which can be used for the transfer of digital assets other than currency, such as stocks and bonds. Colred Coin
In 2014, asset trading, Blockchain2.5: applications in the financial field emphasize token (currency bridge) applications, distributed ledgers, data layer blockchains, and financial applications such as artificial intelligence (Ripple Coin)
2016, Value Transfer, Blockchain 3.0: More complex smart contracts, applying blockchain to government, medical, scientific, cultural and artistic fields.
3. Technology evolution route
Origin of technology: P2P network, encryption, database technology, electronic cash
Blockchain 1.0: Distributed ledgers, blockchain data, Merkle trees
Blockchain 2.0: Smart Contracts, Virtual Machines, Distributed Applications
Blockchain 3.0: Fair Applications Beyond Money, Economy and Markets
4. Blockchain and the new generation of information technology
a. Deployment infrastructure: cloud computing
b. Device network infrastructure: IoT
c. Communications Infrastructure: Next Generation Networks
d. Crypto Infrastructure
e. Storage Infrastructure: Big Data
5. The application panorama of blockchain
a. Payment, transaction clearing and settlement, trade finance, digital currency, equity, private placement, bonds, financial derivatives, crowdfunding, risk control, credit investigation
b. Digital medical records, privacy protection, health management
c. File management, student credit, academic certificate, grade certificate, industry-university cooperation
d. Item traceability, item authenticity
e. Social and messaging systems
f. Proxy voting, ID card, file management, notarization, inheritance, personal social credit, business administration
g. Social Welfare
h. Video copyright, music copyright, software anti-counterfeiting, digital content confirmation, software dissemination traceability
6. Overall overpower judgment
Cloud Computing -> New IT Application Architecture
Big data -> new data application architecture (large data volume, various data types, high business value, high processing speed Velooity)
Internet of Things -> physical world physical networking technology, heterogeneous and mixed protocols
7. Standardization is an important means to lead development
8. Standards and Open Source
Open source is a form of standards, often referred to as "physical standards".
In addition to maintaining software projects, the open source community formally publishes standards, such as the Carrier-Grade Linux Specification published by the Linux Foundation.
9. Status Quo of Blockchain Standardization
a. In April 2016, Standards Australia proposed a new national standardization plan for blockchain and distributed ledger technology and submitted it to ISO
b. In July 2016, the World Wide Web Consortium clearly stated that the blockchain needs standards to eliminate redundancy, and at the same time believes that data standardization is the first step in the standardization work of the blockchain
c. In August 2016, the ISO/IEC JTC1 advisory group proposed a standardization proposal for distributed ledger technology
d. ISO/TC307 (Blockchain and Electronic Distributed Ledger Technology) was established in September 2016, and the first working meeting was held in April 2017. Existing Member States: 15 Plenipotentiary Members, 15 Observer Members
10. Standardized work planning
a. Information Security
b. Business and Application Standards
c. Process and method standards
d. Trusted and Interoperable Standards
11. Reference Architecture Standard - User View
a. Blockchain service customers
b. Blockchain service provider
c. Blockchain service partners
12. Reference Architecture Standards - Functional View
a. User layer
b. Service layer
c. Core layer
d. base layer
e. Cross-layer functionality (development, operations, security, governance, and auditing)
13. Next steps
a. Carry out verification pilots around standard organizations
b. Organizing Blockchain Hackathon Technology Competition
c. Promote the construction of open source community
Lecture 3: Four technological forces that will change the future
How to seize the great opportunities of innovation and entrepreneurship in the next decade
Nothing is unknown in the world, they are only temporarily hidden
Thinking about innovation and entrepreneurship in the cold winter of capital: this is the worst era, this is the best era
1. Four forces that will change the future: Blockchain, Internet of Everything IoT, Artificial Intelligence AI, Virtual Reality VR/AR
2. Opportunities and challenges
a. Predict the entrepreneurial situation in the next 3-5 years
b. The Internet dividend period has passed, and the current Internet entrepreneurship and model innovation will face a huge failure rate
c. The biggest opportunity for China's economy comes from consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading
d. Global opportunities come from technological innovation, and technology changes the world
3. Key investment layout in four areas
a. China: consumption upgrading, industrial upgrading
b. Global: artificial intelligence and big data, loE, VR/AR, blockchain
c. Four major areas: FinTech, HealthTech, EduTech, SaaS enterprise services
4. Case
a. Smart Shopping: Reshaping the Shopping Experience in the Mobile Internet Era
b. Takagi Education: Redefining Learning with Artificial Intelligence
c. Sydney: Underwater control and measurement robot
5. The best way for the future is to participate in the creation of the future
The best way to predict the future,is to be part of its creation
Lecture 4: Intelligence + Financial Big Data
1. Innovation: From Internet+ to Smart+
Internet+: Model innovation, Smart+: Technological innovation
Informatization -> Dataization -> Intelligence
2. The Four Vs of Big Data
Volume,Velocity,Variety,Value
3. Big data analysis methods
a. Based on business rules
b. Shallow BI (user segmentation, beer diapers, long tail problems)
c. Intelligence + Big Data
4. Artificial intelligence turns 60 this year
There have been two ups and downs in history, and it is currently in the third rise