The 2022 New Energy Automobile Industry Cluster 100 People's Meeting will
be held online from March 25th to March 27th. The theme of this forum is "Welcome to the New Stage of New Energy Vehicle Market Development". Data show that in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and a market share of 13.4%.
At the forum, Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Xiang Libin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Xin Guobin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Jiang Wanrong, deputy minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and Huang Xuenong, the supervisory director of the National Energy Administration, introduced respectively. The key tasks of the auto industry in 2022 were discussed, and the current development status of the new energy industry was interpreted. At the same time, the main tasks of the ministries and commissions in the next step were determined, which set the tone for the development trend of electric vehicles in 2022.
Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to strengthen top-level design together with relevant departments and industries, and continuously optimize supporting policies such as scientific and technological innovation, industrial layout, and charging and swapping infrastructure construction. The specific methods are divided into four aspects: First, adhere to the national game of chess, focus on optimizing the industrial layout, and do not add new production capacity until the existing bases of car companies reach a reasonable scale. Second, adhere to technological innovation and focus on improving the core competitiveness of the industry. Third, adhere to open cooperation and strive to improve the internationalization level of the industry. Fourth, adhere to the bottom-line thinking, focus on responding to various security risks, and strengthen the construction of resource guarantee systems such as lithium, nickel and cobalt.
This article refers to the article of Yanzhi New Energy Vehicle
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/85kGLFqH7JsQHHMWTZaTpw
and the article of Securities Daily
https://www.163.com/dy/article/H3ITIESU0550C0ON.html
From the perspective of forward-looking layout of all-solid-state batteries, a new generation of electric drive systems based on new materials and new devices and other key core technologies, Vice Minister of Science and Technology Xiang Libin said that regarding the technological innovation of new energy vehicles in the marketization stage, the general considerations It is to adhere to market leadership, government guidance, and government support for research on basic frontiers and common key technologies.
The first is to persevere in strengthening basic research, deploy all-solid-state batteries, key core technologies based on new materials, and shape core competitiveness. At the same time, focus on breaking through the bottleneck technologies that restrict the development of the industry. The third is to focus on creating a favorable environment for innovation. Finally, vigorously promote the integrated development of new energy vehicles and green energy technology innovation. Strengthen the research and demonstration application of hydrogen energy technology, and support the application demonstration of new technologies such as orderly charging and V2G.
On March 25th, the "2022 China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association (hereinafter referred to as the Hundred People's Association)" was held online as scheduled. This conference was jointly participated by various ministries, auto companies, supply chain companies and technology companies. Under severe circumstances, it is not easy for the conference to proceed as scheduled.
It is precisely because it is not easy, and the entire automotive industry is affected by chips, batteries, and the epidemic, so this conference can be said to be the vane of the development trend of China's new energy vehicles, which is the core of the industry's attention.
There are several practical questions that need to be answered in the "curve overtaking" of China's new energy vehicle industry:
• How to "accelerate" in the next time;
• How to coordinate between industries;
• How to refine the support direction of policies;
• What is the goal of building an "industrial cluster"?
What do the heads of car companies, people from ministries and commissions, and industry experts say?
01A
few words to talk about the background
of the automobile industry "overtaking on a curve" is a familiar phrase, a phrase often mentioned by investors and industry bosses, but few people have explained this sentence thoroughly. The so-called "overtaking on a curve" "What the hell is super?
Because the "main engine factory" is the closest to the terminal crowd, it is easy to equate building a Chinese auto giant with the true meaning of "overtaking on a curve".
The auto industry is very complicated, and the explanation is even more complicated. Let's look at a few key words first:
• Real industry;
• High-end manufacturing industry;
• Technology manufacturing powerhouse;
• Development of hard technology;
• Localization of core industries.
The country is known as the "world's factory", and the manufacturing industry is an important sector for the rapid economic rise. Among all manufacturing clusters, the automotive industry has the largest supply chain, manufacturing models, and industrial depth.
To put it simply, the essence of the country's "overtaking on a curve" is to develop an automobile industry cluster, and to achieve localized R&D, design and manufacturing from battery, semiconductor, and vehicle manufacturing. This is one of the reasons why Tesla must localize its components. This is very similar to Germany's control of the supply chain in the traditional automobile era.
Why this macro background?
Only in this way can we better understand the work deployment of policy, technology and corporate strategy by leading experts in various sectors of the industry at the 100-person meeting.
02
The focus of the policy is: "Rationalization"
at the 100-person meeting:
• Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission;
• Xiang Libin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology;
• Xin Guobin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology;
• Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development Vice Minister Jiang Wanrong;
• Huang Xuenong, Supervision Director of the National Energy Administration.
Five leaders in charge of different fields introduced their respective key work arrangements for the auto industry in 2022.
• National Development and Reform Commission: Strengthen the construction of resource guarantee systems such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, and do not add new production capacity until the existing bases of car companies reach a reasonable scale.
• Science and Technology Department: Prospectively deploy key core technologies such as all-solid-state batteries, new-generation electric drive systems based on new materials and new devices.
• Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Clarify the requirements for the proportion of points for subsequent years, and resolutely crack down on unfair competition such as speculation.
• Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Deepen the pilot of "shuangzhi" coordinated development and promote the interconnection between automobiles and cities.
• National Energy Administration: systematically deploy industry cross-integration technology innovation, standard formulation and industrialization, and increase support for the construction of two-way charging piles.
Summarizing the key words in the work deployment of various ministries and commissions, it will be found that policies are guiding the development of the new energy vehicle industry from disorder to orderly development.
This is a very important indicator. We all know that in the early stage of the development of the new energy industry, the formulation of policies is limited. This is inevitable at the beginning of the rise of any emerging industry. Therefore, many regional "internal frictions" have occurred.
When each city is striving to enter the industry, there will be a large number of open policies. This itself is to encourage enterprises to become bigger and stronger, and eventually it becomes a competition of policy strength. As a result, the new energy vehicle industry is scattered and local cities are responsible. Started the enterprise's risk management controller, technology innovation task concentration.
At the 100-person meeting, various ministries and commissions gave new explanations to the policy, mainly in several aspects:
1. Optimize industrial layout.
Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said: "Complete vehicle companies should focus on key layouts, relying on existing production bases for cluster development, and no new production capacity will be deployed until the existing bases reach a reasonable scale."
Enterprises want to use the local open policy to blindly plan factories, and at the same time, the behavior of financing in the market will be gone forever.
As for the large-scale acquisition of land using PPT as in the early days, the country's new policy is to strengthen the clean-up and rectification of new energy vehicle illegal projects, and investigate and deal with violations such as construction before approval, construction and consolidation with batches, and construction while approval in accordance with laws and regulations.
The focus in the future is to build industrial clusters with international competitiveness in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing and other regions.
2. Strengthen resource security.
The development of the new energy vehicle industry is not only about the development of vehicle enterprises, but also the development of a synergistic relationship between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The recent increase in the price of battery materials has caused all auto companies to fall into the whirlpool of product price increases. The essence of this phenomenon is the resource supply system. The problem.
The National Development and Reform Commission said, "Strengthen the construction of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other resource guarantee systems, continue to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and accelerate the construction of a diversified supply guarantee system with simultaneous development and procurement, and mutual assistance at home and abroad."
three. Promote infrastructure construction environment.
Jiang Wanrong, deputy minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that the standardization of the infrastructure construction environment will be accelerated, so that enterprises can smoothly build charging networks in various areas of each city.
This is easy to understand. Through the combination of renovation and new construction, enterprises that have the ability to build charging and other intelligent transportation hardware can have the conditions to build.
The policy orientations of the five departments are actually very close, that is: "rationalization".
What the country can do is to ensure all conditions conducive to industrial development, but to avoid "wasteful" development. By 2022, the model design of China's new energy industry has begun to take shape, and refined development will definitely become the main theme. This shows that the new energy industry has begun to reshuffle, and existing brands and new brands are competing for core capabilities such as technology.
The policy will only create a more open "safe" environment, and there will be no more protection measures such as "whitelist". Therefore, the next competition of auto companies will test their overall capabilities, such as technology, products, service systems, etc. .
03
The task of car companies: "Drive"
Li Xiang, CEO of Lixiang Auto, mentioned in his speech at the 100-person meeting: "There are two needs for car companies to build products: first, to see what users need products? Second, to see what the country needs?" The core, creating products that users need is very easy to understand, which is the basis of sales, but many companies are actually reluctant to attribute the success of their own development to the background of the national strategic development.
Li Xiang gave a real and realistic answer, that is, the success of any top company in the world is inseparable from specific “environmental” factors. At the same time, we must do a good job of feeding back the industry. Li Xiang
's future layout of Lixiang Auto : • Lixiang ONE's urban driving mileage accounts for 70% of pure electric mileage and 80% of pure electric use time; • In the future, central electric energy and distributed liquid energy will coexist for a long time. Li Auto has always emphasized that "Range extension is Li Auto's long-term strategy, not a transition", and the pure electric solution will definitely be launched when the technology is mature. In addition to the pure electric products that are known to be launched next year, Li Auto's pure electric super-supplementary energy strategy has begun to emerge.
Sun Guangmin, Vice President of Ideal Motors, said at the 100-person meeting:
• Self-developed 480 kW supercharging platform, 850 V high voltage, 4C battery
• The vehicle can maintain a charging power of more than 400 kW at 0-60%, and reduce to 300 kW at 60-80% 2025
infrastructure goals:
• Plan to build 3,000+ super/fast charging stations,
• Build a fast charging network with ten vertical and ten horizontal rings,
• All access to 36 national highways,
• Cover 90% of national highways Expressway mileage,
• Connecting the intercity routes of 4 core metropolitan areas (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Greater Bay Area, Sichuan-Chongqing);
• Will launch flexible and mobile charging stations.
Regarding the layout and structure of charging stations, it is mainly about the combination of urban supercharge/fast charging, supercharge along the city, and supercharge along the highway. At the same time, it also calls for policy support to speed up the implementation of the supercharge network on expressways. In terms of energy coordination, an energy system for overcharging and energy storage will be deployed, and relevant demonstration sites will be launched within this year.
The layout of Xiaopeng Motors
Because the layout of the energy-replenishing network is relatively early, Xiaopeng mainly introduced its intelligent capabilities at the 100-person meeting.
He Xiaopeng said:
• The average price of Xiaopeng reached 250,000 after subsidy, which belongs to the entry level of BBA;
• The accumulated mileage of Xiaopeng intelligent driving reached 140 million kilometers, and the assisted parking of intelligent driving reached 7.34 million;
• Intelligent assistance The penetration rate of users driving XPILOT 3.0 reaches 96.2%, and the mileage penetration rate reaches 62% for every 100 kilometers of high-speed driving;
• In 2023, it will enter the era of "human-machine co-driving", and in 2026, Xiaopeng will transition to driverless driving.
In addition to manufacturing, the competition in the automotive industry is also about "intelligence", which includes the autonomy of the entire semiconductor hardware and system software.
Xiaopeng is one of the few OEMs with full-stack self-developed assisted driving systems. XPILOT 3.0 has achieved high-speed pilot assisted driving capabilities. P5 has introduced the parking lot memory parking function. In 2022, it will launch XPILOT from high-speed to urban scenes. 3.5, intelligent assisted driving will start the competition in the second half.
Starting from the end of this year, Xiaopeng will continue to support XPILOT 4.0 hardware, and strive to launch XPILOT 4.0 software and services in the first half of next year.
This means that the industry's supporting service capabilities must be able to keep up with the research and development speed of innovative companies. This is the basis for the implementation of advanced functions, so that the entire intelligent industry supply capacity can reach the standard of mass production.
Weilai's "Electricity" Experiment
The layout of Weilai's "power energy", as well as the cooperation between the power station and V2G, is the goal of Weilai's implementation of the enterprise's back-feeding infrastructure.
Dr. Shen Fei of Weilai said at the 100-person meeting:
"The electric vehicle charging and swapping infrastructure and the new power system are developing in coordination. On the microscopic level, electric vehicles have the energy carrier of space-time translation characteristics. At present, Weilai has started the pilot work of the V2X project.
The cycle life of the vehicle power battery can reach thousands of times. The actual use of the vehicle may only be more than 1,000 times. The remaining 3-5,000 times of life can be used in the power grid. In the
future, a two-way charging and discharging power exchange station can be launched, and the cost is different. 20%, the battery in the station can simultaneously have the ability to transmit power to the power grid. Through the macro balance, users do not have to worry about affecting the battery life.
This is not only to solve the power distribution problem of NIO's automotive products, but also to the distribution of national power. It is an important part of the transformation of modern power distribution, and continues to deepen the overall goal of the top-level design of "energy strategy".
Jidu's product ideas
Jidu's first product will debut in April, which is very exciting, because this is the only opportunity to test Baidu's autonomous driving solution. If Jidu cannot bring a good intelligent driving experience , there is a high probability that Baidu will lose the opportunity to play cards in intelligent driving.
Xia Yiping, CEO of Jidu Automobile, explained the product concept of Jidu smart car at the 100-person meeting: to build the core capabilities of free movement, natural communication, and self-growth, and on this basis, to create safe and reliable autonomous driving products.
Take a look at the current progress of Jidu Automobile:
• Currently, Jidu is developing the wire-controlled chassis technology;
• The full-stack application of Baidu Apollo's high-level autonomous driving technology;
• Apollo has a test mileage of 25 million+ kilometers with zero accidents;
• Baidu Robotaxi has been tested on the road in 30+ cities across the country;
• SIMU Car software integrated prototype decouples the software and hardware development of the vehicle.
Development progress of SIMU Car:
• Officially start running in September
2021; • Start dynamic testing in November 2021 to verify the reliability of functions such as signal light recognition, right turn at intersection, and night driving;
• Update left turn at intersection in December 2021 , automatic lane change and other functions in the urban and high-speed areas of automatic driving scenarios;
• In February 2022, it will be upgraded to version 2.0, which completes the integration of high-level automatic driving software and vehicle electronics and SOA.
The follow-up model based on the SIMU Car integrated prototype is under development, and the follow-up model is expected to be unveiled at the Guangzhou Auto Show at the end of this year. The first model will be mass-produced and delivered in the second half of 2023, and will have high-level autonomous driving capabilities upon delivery.
General Motors: The Chinese market is the core
Julian Blissett, Executive Vice President of General Motors Corporation and President of General Motors China, said at the 100-person meeting:
"By 2025, General Motors will launch more than 30 electric vehicles around the world, of which more than 20 electric vehicles will be launched. will be listed in China.
The ultimate goal is to electrify all new models by 2035, when GM will be powered by 100 percent of the world's renewable energy.
Through a two-pronged strategy of products and operations, GM will be carbon neutral by 2040. "
GM has shown a firmness rarely seen in joint venture brands in electrification. In GM's strategy, the Chinese market has been raised to a higher level. In the period of traditional automobiles, China cannot do without overseas supply chain capabilities. In the automotive era, joint venture brands are increasingly inseparable from the nourishment of the Chinese market.
They are not only simply producing cars and selling them in China, but also establishing a series of production, R&D, and energy-supply networks in China.
For example, BMW has cooperated with Chinese companies in the construction of charging infrastructure. As of the end of February this year, BMW's networked public charging piles reached 380,000, including 200,000 DC fast charging piles.
Of course, in addition to these car companies, there are BYD, Changan, Geely, Great Wall, etc., all of which are promoting the development of electrification, but while enjoying policy dividends and market dividends, it drives the development of China's new energy vehicle local supply chain. business must do.
It can be seen that the first stage of product building has been completed for the new car-making forces and independent traditional brands, and the in-depth exploration of the supply chain has just begun. There are more and more investments in batteries, assisted driving solution companies, and radar companies. Investing in LiDAR Tudatong can answer the first question at the beginning. "Curve overtaking" must be initiated by car companies and completed with the cooperation of materials, solutions, intelligent hardware and software.
However, car companies need to give full play to their first-mover advantage and head effect, and reverse innovation to enhance the collective innovation awareness of the entire supply chain. If the supply chain is still based on the idea of "purchasing at low prices", it will be difficult for China to promote technology manufacturing. Go up the stairs again.
In this process, supply chain companies must have the ability to support innovation and supply.
04
Supply chain system: The
role of "localized" car companies is very simple. It is to develop high-value products on the supply side to provide users with high-value products. Only by selling the products to the supply chain can they form an industrial chain together with car companies.
In the subdivided supply chain of the automobile industry, the power battery is not only the core component, but also a major project on the manufacturing side. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that 2025 is a critical period for the transition from liquid batteries to solid-state batteries.
At the same time, the goal of China's power battery industrialization is:
• In 2025, the energy density of liquid battery cells will reach 350Wh/kg;
• In 2030, the energy density of solid-liquid hybrid battery cells transitioning from liquid batteries to solid-state batteries will be 400 Wh/kg;
• In 2035, quasi/full The energy density of solid-state battery cells will reach 500Wh/kg.
• By 2025, the country needs a total of 125 GWh of batteries to be recycled and reused.
At the 100-person meeting, CATL, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BAK Battery, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Sunwangda, and Panasonic all brought new technologies.
According to Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, this is a system-level battery technology, and its energy density is 13% higher than that of the 4680 system.
According to the data released by CATL, when the Kirin battery uses lithium iron phosphate, the system energy density exceeds 160 Wh/kg and 290 Wh/L; when the ternary system is used, the system energy density can reach 250 Wh/kg and 450 Wh/L. L.
Under the same cell chemistry system and the same battery pack size, the Kirin battery can hold 13% more power than the 4680 system. If you look closely at the modules of the CTP 3.0 platform, the proportion of cells is basically the same as that of the standard cells developed by Volkswagen.
The cylinder with 4680 as the standard, driven by Tesla, may be the best choice for OEMs to match CTC. The square shell standard battery has only been mentioned by Volkswagen and Volvo, but the size of the square shell standard battery has never been It is clear that the Ningde era chose to announce the "Kirin battery" at this time to show the market that the solution for standardized batteries is mature, and the square shell battery is still an optional solution when the OEM defines the CTC chassis.
Yiwei Lithium Energy, Panasonic and BAK Battery are all continuing to bet on the large cylinder solution. Yiwei Lithium Energy has announced a large cylindrical and square battery capacity of 200 GWh, which will be completed by the end of 2022.
Fan Wenguang, vice president of BAK Battery, said: "Judging from the received customer needs and industry information, by 2025, large cylindrical cells will account for at least 30% of the share, which is about 480 GWh, which has exceeded the global market share in 2021. The total demand for (power battery).
Fan Wenguang, vice president of BAK battery, said that the current product structure of BAK battery:
• 26105 aluminum shell cells, the energy density of B-type products is 270 Wh/kg, and the power density is greater than 2000 W/ kg, the supporting model has a battery life of more than 700 kilometers;
• Within 12 minutes, it can be charged for more than 500 kilometers of battery life, and can be charged to more than 280 kilometers of battery life within 5 minutes, and the pure fast-charge cycle life is more than 800 times ;
• According to the plan, the battery will be mass-produced in 2024, and the energy density will reach 285Wh/kg.
At the same time, the BAK large cylindrical battery, 46 series, with a height ranging from 80 - 120 mm, can achieve an energy density of 275 - 300 Wh/kg, 10-80% fast charge, the fastest 15 minutes, the slowest 20 minutes, and also includes some customized products to meet special needs, such as the performance of fast charge can be achieved within 9 minutes.
And Panasonic President Kusumi Yuki's expression is more direct: 4680 batteries will become the main force of round batteries in the future, and Panasonic can provide stable, safe, and cobalt-free batteries in the future.
From a technical point of view, square shell standard batteries and large cylinders The competition for standard batteries has just begun. The biggest uncertainty for battery manufacturers in the future is whether the CTC chassis is based on a cylinder or a square shell. Volkswagen and Volvo have a clear square shell route. BMW is now a square shell, but at the same time BMW Develop plans for large cylinders.
The square shell and the cylinder are not only the competition of domestic battery suppliers, but the biggest competition is between China, South Korea and Japan. The main factories of LG and Panasonic are all overseas, and the domestic factories are currently only supplying Tesla. Once the large cylinder becomes the mainstream solution for car companies to define products, domestic battery manufacturing will inevitably be affected, at least the slow growth in stages is certain, which is obviously not conducive to the realization of the goal of localized manufacturing of core components.
Therefore, industrial synergy is to strengthen the cooperation of the industrial chain and supply chain. "Battery companies and auto companies", "chip companies and auto companies" accelerate technology research and development and collaborative innovation, and also use the head effect to drive upstream and downstream technological innovation and supply. ability.
Summary
Now we can answer the above questions. From the perspective of top-level policies, "rationalization" has become a key word, accelerating the transformation of the industry from barbaric growth to refined management. The policy is no longer a talisman without innovative enterprises, but more about Encourage innovative enterprises to drive industrial development.
The acceleration of "overtaking on a curve" requires car companies that have already run out to use the first-mover advantage to drive the flywheel to turn, and car companies and supply chain companies to innovate collaboratively. Under the circumstance that the global supply chain is unstable, accelerate the domestic production of core components Replacement, which requires car companies to invest heavily in the automotive semiconductor industry, but from the current point of view, the investment of car companies is not enough.
Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said: "The Chinese auto industry needs to have its own unified operating system; after the chip "famine" crisis, the Chinese auto industry needs to establish an autonomous and controllable automotive-grade chip industry system; There is very little investment in this area. Volkswagen, Toyota, and GM are all fully invested MCU semiconductor suppliers. Domestic car companies that have grown up need to work hard in this regard. 』
The goal of the industrial cluster is to continue to let China lead the world's high-end manufacturing industry. Under such a big goal, every industry participant must assume the main responsibility.
Reference link
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/85kGLFqH7JsQHHMWTZaTpw