汽车电子在汽车工业的智能变化中起着至关重要的作用。汽车电子产品的成本份额迅速上升，汽车电子产品的创新已成为汽车行业创新的重要动力。2020年2月,国家发展和改革委员会及其他11个部门联合发布了《智能汽车创新发展战略》,智能汽车的发展是一个重要途径,推动我国汽车产业转型,提高整个国家的综合实力。在新一轮产业变革的背景下，汽车行业面临着前所未有的巨大挑战和发展机遇。更好地了解该行业的现状和趋势是创新发展的首要条件。
在当前背景下，由汽车电子产业联盟在中国电子信息产业发展研究院的指导下联合多家公司（赛迪智库电子信息研究所、赛迪顾问股份有限公司、北京赛目科技有限公司、博世投资有限公司等等）编制了《2030中国汽车电子产业发展前景分析》(以下简称“2030年汽车电子前景分析”)。
《2030汽车电子前景分析》在汽车智能发展的背景下，对中国汽车电子产业进行了全面、系统的分析。首先，对汽车电子产业的定义和内涵进行了界定，并对其发展现状进行了分析。其次，从汽车电子产业供应链和地域分布的角度，描述了我国汽车电子产业的发展现状。通过对关键部件和技术的深入分析来分析工业发展。为中国汽车电子产业的发展提出了措施和建议。
1. Analysis of the development background of China's automotive electronics industry 1. Multiple stimulus policies and measures to ensure the stable development of
the automotive market Affected by unfavorable factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic, economic downturn cycles and sluggish automotive market demand, the domestic automotive market will be under tremendous pressure in 2020. As an important starting point for economic recovery in the context of the epidemic, the state has successively introduced relevant policies to stimulate economic recovery by actively promoting traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles. On the one hand, promote the full resumption of work and production of auto parts suppliers to ensure the orderly recovery of production and operation; on the other hand, adjust the degree of openness, appropriately increase the number plate quotas, clarify new energy vehicle purchase subsidies and exemptions by encouraging auto purchase areas The purchase tax policy has been extended for two years, and measures such as appropriate delays for regions that have not yet implemented the National VI emission standards have been considered, and measures to stimulate consumption in the auto market have been continuously increased. According to local conditions, local governments have successively introduced stimulus policies suitable for the region to further stabilize the development of the automobile industry.
2. The level of automotive electronics has become the key to differentiated competition among car companies
. The development trend of the "new four modernizations"-"electricity, connectivity, intelligence, and sharing" of cars has become increasingly strong, and major car companies are actively deploying autonomous driving in accordance with the trend Related automotive electronics. my country's traditional automobile industry has the problem of being large but not strong. Independent automobile brands are mainly low-end products, and there is a big gap between the product strength and brand influence of international leading automobile companies. Under the "new four modernizations" upgrade trend, focusing on the development of the automotive electronics industry and improving the intelligent level of vehicle products is the key to my country's independent auto brands to enhance product strength and build brand competitiveness. It is also the upgrade of my country's auto industry to high-end, from a major change. Strong important way. Especially for my country’s key development of the new energy vehicle industry, under the background of the gradual maturity of the three-electric system technology, new energy vehicle products tend to compete homogeneously in terms of battery life and power performance, and the level of intelligence will be the level of my country’s new energy vehicle companies. Breakthrough is the key to forming a differentiated advantage.
3. New infrastructure promotes the application and promotion of smart car electronic products
In order to hedge the impact of the epidemic on my country's economy, my country has vigorously promoted the construction of new infrastructure represented by artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and 5G communications to drive economic development. For the research and development and application of automotive electronic products related to the intelligent network, in addition to the traditional electronic information manufacturing foundation, supporting facilities such as artificial intelligence platforms, cloud computing platforms, and 5G communication base stations are essential. 5G technology is gradually commercialized to meet the needs of high data bandwidth and low latency transmission for vehicle-road collaboration and Internet of Vehicles functions; advances in artificial intelligence technology facilitate the development of system solutions and software algorithms; cloud computing technology helps the construction of urban smart transportation brain systems , To promote the development of the smart transportation industry. Promoting the construction of new infrastructures related to artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and 5G communications will effectively guarantee the testing, application and promotion of the automotive electronics industry related to intelligent networking.
2. Panorama of the industry chain
1. The automotive electronics industry chain and pattern under the new situation The
current automotive electronics industry industry chain can be divided into three levels: the upstream of the industry chain is mainly automotive electronic components and parts. There are many suppliers in the upstream of the industry chain, mainly responsible for the production of components and parts; the middle of the industry chain is mainly based on system integrators, which carry out modular function design, production and sales, mainly for upstream components and components Integrate and provide solutions for a certain function or a certain module. Some upstream component suppliers also participate in the midstream system integration. The electronic products in this link have certain consumer electronics attributes, the update cycle is short, and the threat of replacement is relatively large; the downstream of the industrial chain is the complete vehicle link, which is dominated by automobile companies, and has higher bargaining power in the industrial chain. But this trend is changing with the development of the new situation in the automotive industry. Today, some automakers are designing their own automotive electronic chips (such as Tesla) and extending their business activities from hardware to software and operating systems that link users more closely, as well as developing specific services or providing other digital content. Other Tier1 suppliers (suppliers) are also exploring the path to chip design, system development, application software and post-service development. Suppliers in the automotive industry try to directly establish contact with end customers through automotive electronics and networked means, thereby reducing their dependence on automakers and gaining the right to speak in the industry.
Map of China's Automotive Electronics Industry
Data source: Compiled by CCID Think Tank, April 2020
With the development of intelligent connected cars, technology and Internet companies have also entered the automotive industry chain to provide value-added services to share the development dividend of intelligent connected cars. These companies rely on their own advantages and rely on their existing capabilities to develop unmanned driving systems, intelligent networked systems, vehicle operating systems, and network information platforms, and integrate infotainment operating systems and software platforms into vehicle systems and human-machine interfaces, focusing on To take horizontal measures to create new revenue models. Manufacturers of streaming media services and end-user equipment have established cooperative relationships with some automakers.
2. Distribution of China's automotive electronics industry In
terms of industrial layout, the accumulated advantages of ICT and the Internet have helped to achieve corner overtaking. China's automobile production and sales have been maintained for many years, and it has the advantages of huge market scale and rich application scenarios. In terms of ICT (information and communication technology), Chinese companies have experienced years of technological accumulation and grasped the trend of innovation in automotive electronics integration. They have launched 5G-based vehicle-road collaborative vehicle networking related modules and other products, and are actively promoting laser radar and millimeter wave radar. In the sensor field, we strive to join the Tier1 supply chain system to achieve industrial breakthroughs. In terms of spatial layout, three major industrial clusters with Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong have been formed. In 2020, the original automotive electronics technology innovation model and the restructuring of the industrial ecosystem are imminent. It is expected that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other cities with high intelligent energy levels and strong computing power are expected to become the “new power” of automotive electronics, rebuilding and leading the new Computer industry system.
3. Analysis of key automotive electronic components and technology application trends
Changes in the automotive chip supply chain
1. Analysis of chip trends. Automotive semiconductors can be divided into functional chips MCU (Microcontroller Unit), power semiconductors (IGBT, MOSFET) and so on. Chips play a vital role in the development of automotive electrification, intelligence, and connectivity. They are the support for the development of the "new three modernizations" of automobiles: First, the "three powers" of batteries, motors, and electronic control have become the territory of automotive electrification. An important part; the second is the rapid growth of the market for main control chips with AI computing capabilities driven by the development of automotive intelligence; the third is that the development of automotive networking forces the large-scale commercial use of C-V2X chips.
The number of
sensors required for different levels of unmanned vehicles 2. Sensor trend analysis. Multi-sensor fusion has become the driving force to realize L4/L5 level automatic driving. On the one hand, the degree of intelligence of a car is directly proportional to the number of sensors. The number of key sensors such as lidar in L5 unmanned vehicles can reach 32; on the other hand, lidar, as a "product" that once cost hundreds of thousands of yuan, has already begun its price war. Domestic lidar companies are trying to directly reduce lidar costs by actively promoting the large-scale mass production of lidar in 2020.
3. ECU/DCU trend analysis. The ECU in a vehicle is an electronic control unit, including simple ECUs (such as controlling seat movement) and relatively complex ECUs (such as integrating sensor input to obtain engine performance). With the emergence of high-performance computing units, DCU (Domain Control Unit) will become the next stage in the development of ECUs, especially for automatic driving assistance systems, which handle massive amounts of data while making logical and safe driving behaviors. Decision-making requires strong computing power to support.
4. In-vehicle infotainment system/navigation trend analysis. It is estimated that by 2030, the share of data services and shared mobility will rise from 0.2% of total car revenue to 27%. Taking the smart cockpit as the starting point to improve user experience has become the key to success for enterprises: on the one hand, "one core with multiple screens" has become a trend hotspot. On the other hand, automobile companies are pursuing the shock and science fiction brought by cool technology. Begin to focus on improving the user experience intensively, placing more emphasis on user convenience, comfort, and entertainment. Product development and service design based on consumer perception and psychological experience have increased user stickiness.
5. Electronic trend analysis of body chassis. Braking and shock absorption are automobile chassis components, and both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles will be equipped with these two types of products.
The current competitive situation in the control brake industry is oligopoly. The basic braking industry is currently in a monopolistic competition, with low technical thresholds. The main technical difficulties are the adjustment of noise and vibration (NVH) and drag. The current competitive situation in the passive shock absorption industry is monopolistic competition. From the perspective of the active shock absorption industry, it is an oligopoly.
Currently, the dual-tube passive shock absorber in the shock absorber industry is in a dominant position. As people's living standards become higher and higher, the requirements for the balance between car handling and comfort become more and more demanding. The frequency response shock absorber and hydraulic stop shock absorber developed by Jingxi Heavy Industry on this basis will More and more applications are used in the development of future models. At the same time, with the popularization of electric vehicles, the degree of intelligent and automatic driving of vehicles becomes higher and higher, and the demand for controllable shock absorbers and air suspensions will increase. The removal of electric vehicle engines also puts forward higher requirements on the overall noise level of the shock absorber.
4. Prospects for the development of China's automotive electronics industry in 2030 The
on-board intelligent computing platform continues to evolve. Different domains in the electronic and electrical architecture of intelligent networked vehicles are continuously integrated, and the software and hardware of the vehicle intelligent computing platform are fully decoupled. Hardware converges to become standard parts, and software realizes full stack and completeness. The application ecology for different scenarios is rich and complete. The autonomy of supply chain and tool chain has been greatly improved.
Cloud collaboration realizes fully autonomous driving. The Internet of Vehicles communication technology achieves ultra-high speed, ultra-large capacity, ultra-low power consumption, ultra-low latency, and ultra-high reliability. The vehicle-mounted intelligent computing platform has the ability to collaborate with the cloud. Autonomous driving algorithms are constantly iteratively optimized, and computing power is intelligently distributed on the car side and in the cloud. The safety protection system of the Internet of Vehicles is perfect.
Comprehensive application and promotion of new energy technologies. Next-generation solid-state battery technology, hydrogen fuel cell technology, high-power charging technology, and wireless charging technology have achieved large-scale commercial promotion in the passenger car and commercial vehicle fields. Significant improvement in energy efficiency.
5. Countermeasures and suggestions for the development of China's automotive electronics industry
Policies: First, focus on the intelligent computing platform and comprehensively strengthen the top-level design; second, build an industrial information security fortress with multiple lines of defense. In terms of industry: one is to promote the first breakthroughs in parts such as automotive-grade chips and power semiconductors; the second is to grasp the opportunity of technological transformation and upgrading to accelerate the development of hardware technology; the third is to promote the development of industrial integration through application demonstrations in typical scenarios. For enterprises: First, increase R&D investment to consolidate corporate capabilities; second, use automotive big data systems to meet consumer needs in a timely manner; third, open cooperation and build a full-dimensional, multi-level industrial competition and cooperation system. In terms of intellectual property rights: First, make breakthroughs in key areas of automotive electronics; second, strengthen the overseas layout of intellectual property rights.
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