P1
Even in the US, which is among the most capable of dealing with this financially due to its reserve currency status, interest rates are rising and gold is falling, reflective of the forced selling of even safe-haven assets to raise cash. In the end, this will spur the Fed to ensure rates don’t rise into a slowing economy, probably leading to wartime-like yield curve targeting. That has to happen fast, as the decline in revenue could cascade.
- 如无干预，美国损失可能达到4万亿，全球损失12万亿
- 干预措施：储备货币，利率升高？金价降低？（safe-haven assets，避险资产，出售避险资产以增加现金流）。最后还要控制利率不要过高，导致经济放缓。很可能导致类似战时收益率曲线控制。
P3
- 4万亿相当于GDP的6%。第二季度的下降最明显，最坏情况下可达-30%。
- 首先抹去了公司的大部分收益和现金。按照行业来说，集中在能源，旅行，悠闲，大公司和小公司受影响差距不大。
- 大部分公司可通过提到负债增加现金，但如果政策不允许，预计出现，减少资本支出（原料市场），减少股票回购和企业并购，裁员。
- 一些公司不能渡过难关，并产生约8千亿的违约，超过1/3由银行借出。但由于大量资本的缓冲和流动性，不会对金融系统造成很大的冲击，但长远来说可能导致放贷标准得收紧。
- winner: 药企，loser：旅游娱乐休闲资源
- 小企业，如餐馆，受影响最大。
P4
Businesses Can Fill Their Cash Needs with Significant Spending Cuts, but This Will Just Shift the Losses Elsewhere
- 为了保持现金流，如果没有政策干预，企业将减少支出，或违约，即将损失转移给别人。减少支出首先是金融支出和资本支出：影响增长和股价。
- 其他形式的减少支出，如劳务。时薪结算的服务业首先受到冲击。如果采取更激进的措施，如裁员，会反过来导致消费的减少。
P5
Credit Markets Are Already Pricing In a Material Loss Cycle, Which Is Likely to Make Banks Less Willing to Extend New Credit
The losses now priced into US credit markets (roughly $850 billion) are greater than we saw in the 2015 credit cycle but still far short of what we saw going into the financial crisis. The majority of the implied losses are from US corporate bonds and leveraged loans, which have been the largest source of credit this cycle, and these are mostly held by less-levered, real-money players.
- 850亿的债务远大于2015年，但仍然小于经济危机时的。
- 虽然这些损失是很明显的，但不会使美国的经济系统陷入危机。因为低杠杆等因素。
- 虽然金融系统不会像2008年那样崩溃，但可能会降低lenders借贷的意愿。增加的下行的压力。