This year due to the LCD panel overcapacity, resulting BOE panel and other companies have cut production, but TV manufacturers gradually consumed with inventory, excess supply situation is expected to reverse, market research agency Witsview forecast that LCD panel prices may be bottoming out, but recently China's largest TV manufacturers millet market came news of the message being cut single cause invisible to the LCD panel prices.
Supplying the liquid crystal panel will be long overcapacity
In 2016, the global LCD panel once because of insufficient supply, causing prices upward momentum, BOE, Huaxing power two LCD panel business has thus achieved a dramatic increase in performance results, including consecutive losses before the BOE not only a change of situation, 2017 net profits rose more than tripled net profit hit a record high since its creation.
But only in 2017 BOE 10.5-generation production line, which is the world's most advanced LCD panel production line, the global LCD panel and therefore rapid transition from an excess supply shortage to supply LCD panel prices began to enter a downward spiral, the global LCD panel industry into growing pains.
2018 Love star power of 11-generation LCD panel production line, the global LCD panel production capacity thus further increasing, LCD panel prices fall into the acceleration phase. In early 2019 the industry came news that the BOE in order to promote their own LCD panel shipments, the initiative to meet with TV manufacturers to give a 20% discount, which further exacerbated the decline in LCD panel prices. However, production has not stopped the competition, BOE Article 10.5-generation LCD panel production line, which means that the global LCD panel production capacity to further increase by the end of 2019.
In the liquid crystal panel production capacity continues to increase at the same time, more technologically advanced OLED, QLED panel is being replaced by the LCD panel. In the smart phone market, small and medium size OLED panel market share has reached Daowu Cheng, the current popularity of OLED panel Forward thousand Yuan machine, which means that the smart phone market left to the LCD panel market space will become smaller and smaller, and this is a trend can not be reversed.
In the large-size panel market for television, although the OLED, QLED panel yet to show a trend to replace the LCD panel, but in the high-end TV market is OLED TV and TV QLED occupy the mainstream, and with the OLED panel production capacity, QLED panel, they gradually extended to the end of the TV market is an inevitable trend, especially the main push LG's fierce competition QLED Samsung TV and OLED TV is the main push to continuously reduce both the cost of TV panels fell, also pose a threat to the liquid crystal panel.
从上述情况可以看到，一面是液晶面板产能的急剧增加，一面是OLED、QLED面板在部分替代液晶面板，在未来数年液晶面板产能过剩的局面将很难改变。
疫情影响将中止液晶面板价格上涨趋势
受液晶面板供给过剩、价格持续下跌的影响，中国两大液晶面板企业京东方和华星光电都传出缩减产能的消息；韩国两大面板企业三星和LGD则认为它们在成本方面无法与中国面板企业竞争，选择关闭液晶面板生产线，转产OLED、QLED面板。
在液晶面板产能暂时减小，而电视厂商逐步消耗液晶面板库存之后，业界曾期待液晶面板价格出现回升，这是市调机构Witsview等预测液晶面板价格将出现反弹的原因。
不过受疫情所影响，中国市场几乎陷于停滞，据报道指目前线下渠道已基本陷于停滞，电视的销售主要依靠线上市场，但是由于工厂的生产受影响导致电视难以生产，快递员进入小区受限迫使快递企业暂停部分业务也导致物流配送受影响，线上市场销售电视同样受到抑制。
正是由于疫情的影响，主要在国内市场销售电视的小米电视传出了缩减面板订单的消息，这意味着其他电视厂商同样会受到影响，消化库存液晶面板的进程将因此受影响，对液晶面板的需求将出现较大幅度的下降，而高度自动化的液晶面板生产企业不可能停止生产线的运转，从而造成液晶面板的库存再度出现增长。
在海外新兴市场，中国电视企业正处于快速成长过程中，小米电视已在印度电视市场夺下第一名 ，这些地区销售的主要是价格较低的液晶电视，本来有助于中国清理液晶面板库存，但是疫情影响了中国工厂的生产，自然也就阻碍了中国电视企业帮助面板企业清理液晶面板库存。
欧美市场受到疫情的影响较小，但是这两大市场销售的主要是高端电视，自然就是三星主推的QLED电视和LG的OLED电视，无助于中国液晶面板企业清理液晶面板库存。
综上所述，液晶面板产能过剩局面将难以得到缓解，疫情进一步加剧了中国液晶面板产能过剩的局面，市调机构Witsview预期的液晶面板价格反弹可能因此而夭折，柏铭科技认为疫情结束后液晶面板也将很难出现上涨的希望，能维持价格稳定已是一个不错的局面了。
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柏铭科技 BMtech007
