Once out, you do not know when the virus close to you, it does not give you any chance of a fluke.
After several days of "closed management", many people already sit still at home, many people think now while outside, in the vicinity has not yet confirmed cases, go outside stroll should be no problem.
But you know the fastest novel coronavirus infection How long does it? Two days ago a news tells us that a man went out to buy food, 15 seconds was infected.
Once out, you do not know when the virus close to you, it does not give you any chance of a fluke. People struggle in the "fight against SARS" frontline in various forms, put their time, energy and even life, not just to me as soon as possible to help control the epidemic, the epidemic crossed it?
Each of us are lucky enough to do with their lives temptation.
Shanghai medical treatment team leader Dr ZHANG Wen-hong said passage in an interview:
If the doctor now or are we alone in the battle, the battle can not win, certainly finished. Every soldier is now, it is very important. Then control, a disease of the whole word - "boring." I hope you make good points at home bored in isolation for two weeks, this virus suffocated, died of suffocation on the success of the fight against SARS.
If someone does not understand the reason to say, a programmer has done a simulation program that epidemic, intuitive to tell us to stay at home, the importance of controlling the flow of the crowd.
Epidemic simulation program introduced
The project uses an object-oriented language - Java. Aspects of the mathematical model, using the common nature of normal (Gaussian distribution).
Program variables set includes:
- BROAD_RATE: the number of initial infection
- ORIGINAL_COUNT: transmission rate
- SHADOW_TIME: latency
- HOSPITAL_RECEIVE_TIME: response time admitted to hospital
- BED_COUNT: hospital beds
- u: the average flow intention
but the spread of the epidemic is not really that simple, involving the parameters affecting these items certainly far more than the video display, but the author also said that production of the model for all of us just to spread and control elements of the analysis .
Control variable analysis
具体的分析过程大家可以在看完文章后在文末到 B 站看作者的视频详细理解，这里我们把一些分析结果分享给大家：
初始数据设置：
- 初始感染数量：50
- 传播率：0.8f
- 潜伏时间：0
- 医院收治响应时间：10
- 医院床位：0
- 流动意向平均值：-0.99f
- 将医院床位数据调整为：100
当病毒慢慢扩散开来，我们需要医院建立隔离区，当把床位参数改为 100 张床，若此时我们控制人群不随意流动，疫情会很快被控制，从而被消灭。
将医院床位数据调整为：100，流动意向平均值调整为：0.99f
但就像我们最开始，对于自我隔离不是非常重视，增大人群流动意向后，医院的隔离床位很快会被占满，疫情也将无法控制。
将医院床位数据调整为：1000，流动意向平均值调整为：0.99f
当将床位增加 10 倍后，疫情仍然被很快控制住。如视频作者所说，这就是国家建立火神山、雷神山医院的原因。模拟程序中还有一项「医院收治响应时间」，也就是一个患者从确诊到被安置隔离的时间。如果该时间过长，疫情也将无法控制。
分析到这，视频作者提出另一个关键的影响因素 —— 病毒的潜伏期。本次病毒有长达 14 天的潜伏期，也就是参数「SHADOW_TIME」的数值应为 14。
将潜伏期数据调整为：14，流动意向平均值调整为：0.99f
模拟开始的时候因为在潜伏期，很难再人群中发现并隔离患者但当潜伏期过后，就会出现爆发性增长，医院的床位也会很快被占满，疫情将无法控制。
将潜伏期数据调整为：14，流动意向平均值调整为：-0.99f
但如果人群可以控制流动，虽然整体防治过程较长，但最终疫情被很好的控制并被消灭。
结论分析
我自己有很多关于Java的学习资料又想要的朋友可以点击链接直接领取。Java
通过通知变量法，我们可以发现人群的流动意向对疫情的传播和控制起着主导性的作用，再打的问题，如果控制好人群的流动，就会更容易解决。
So just like the beginning of the article ZHANG Wen-hong said the doctor, even through the efforts of front-line medical workers, speed up the efficiency of diagnosis, the hospital admitted time, the current epidemic has been well controlled, but we are still in the incubation period of the virus, which It is the most dangerous period.
I hope you do not have chances, especially as the weather becomes better, feel epidemic has been well controlled, but let your guard down when it is the most dangerous time. Because in addition to the national level, to play a leading role in the epidemic, precisely what each of us ordinary.
At the end here, citing "three-body" in the sentence, to remind you again:
"Ignorance is not the survival of the weak and the biggest obstacle is the arrogance."
Well stay home, do not live up to everyone's front-line assault. Let your guard down when it is the most dangerous time, to play a leading role in this outbreak is precisely each of us ordinary.
Go out less, wearing masks, washing hands frequently, we will win.
