Fight a lot like a roller coaster market capitalization, who can guess tomorrow is soaring or falling. But a lot of fight can analyze and model is worthy of analysis.
A business model
It is a prerequisite for successful product business model is reasonable, whether there is enough room to grow. Fight a lot to offer low-cost core strategies need to address three issues: how to make businesses are willing to end a very low price to sell; how to find buyers end target user groups; how to do link people and goods. The following discuss them one by one:
1. The business side
Fight a lot of the early establishment and development is the field of electronic business start big advocate "consumer upgrade" of 2015, 2016. The impact of this consumption in the consumer movement aside, touched on the small and medium business quite large. Lynx Jingdong B2C model and support to the tail of small businesses is limited, and in the living space and the business interests of the tail Taobao also increasingly been invaded. These being excluded from escalating, clear out of the small and medium sized businesses, it is the beginning of the business end of the fight a lot of resources.
Gradually bringing together businesses, new small and medium sized businesses continue to enter, how to fight a lot to make these businesses willing to let it? First of all, most of these businesses are small homegrown manufacturers or sellers of low-end cooperation with small manufacturers, the sale of goods, mostly "white goods", namely non-branded goods, intermediate circulation ranging from low-cost intermediate, non-branded nor goods brand premium compared to the market of branded goods, this price is low a lot. Secondly, this is a new platform, new competitive opportunities, many of the original waist, tail businesses have the opportunity to become the head of the business in this platform, and the platform's low-cost strategy is bound to let the flow of resources to tilt to lower-priced goods, so businesses none is active in the new environment of the most effective means of competition (compared to other platforms, complex operations).
And what can bring a lot to fight for these businesses? The above mentioned new platform and opportunity is one aspect. It is also crucial. Fight through a lot of concentration on consumer demand side, we can achieve a certain degree of mass customization to the upstream supply chain. A major difficulty is that the survival of small and medium firms producing uncertainty: lack of understanding of market information that they need to produce in the end is difficult to determine what goods, how much to produce goods. Large fluctuations in production, but also led to high production costs (for example: production line erratic, suddenly stopped suddenly open, effective utilization of productive resources firms is very low). Fight a lot of convergence of consumer demand side, to small and medium manufacturers provide sufficient information requirements pursuant manufacturers can produce a reasonable period of time resource planning. In turn, can reduce the production cost price is further compressed so as to form a positive cycle.
2. The user-side
Businesses find, the next to be solved is how to find the user. Huang Zheng understanding of the fight a lot of users are "price-sensitive users." Consider from two perspectives. The first is the low spending power of the population, typically three or four lines and is less user groups. Also from 15, 16 onwards, the rapidly growing popularity of smart phones to the following four-tier cities, a large number of mobile Internet is coerced into the sinking users a huge wave of traffic has not been fully utilized benefits. These groups of people per capita disposable income is low, more sensitive to price, the pursuit of cost. With the further development of a lot of fight, user groups no longer limited to "Beijing Fifth Ring", the proportion of users a second-tier cities gradually improved. The reason is that the majority of the population pursuit of high quality goods does not cover all aspects, in some scenarios priced goods has great appeal (for example, a boy may appear extravagant in digital products, but buying FMCG to pursue low-cost). Scale user scenario needs cheap goods are in fact great. If we can buy at low prices and reliable quality of goods, a second-tier cities users can also become loyal users of the product.
3. connect people and goods
The electricity supplier is essentially to solve the problem of connecting people and goods. Traditional electricity providers face the shopping scene and shopping guide methods used can be roughly attributed to the following categories:
Targeted needs, the needs of the target fuzzy, difficult to meet the needs of wandering without purpose gradually increases. With the gradual saturation of the market business, how to better meet the meet the needs of users wandering without purpose, the growth of the user's time and increase the rate of single-user has become a top priority. In addition, as always, promotional activities, relying on thousands of thousands of personalized recommendation algorithm to build the scene of the channel surface, force do video graphics and other content, sub-user scenarios demand that intensive operations, including Taobao, Jingdong and other large electricity business platform efforts.
At this point, the fight was very different from a lot of practice. If we say that other electric providers are interested in using the user preferences to guide the user orders, a lot of fight is the use of low-cost explosion models to guide the user orders. As long as the force is strong enough to lure low-cost disadvantage of poor precision of product recommendations becomes very small - user threshold is low enough, then crossed this threshold required to meet the preferences of the user's interest is simple enough. Fight a lot of basic shopping guide way is roughly: category tab + product recommendations, simple user needs to do screening by category tab, and then recommended by cheap merchandising user's desire to buy.
Second, product design and gameplay
商业模式的合理使得拼多多找准了发力点，但能成功还是依靠产品本身的优秀素质。有趣的是，与一般的电商业务驱动的特质相比，拼多多有很强的产品驱动的特质，出色的产品设计与玩法直接促成了它的成功。
拼多多的产品定位是通过拼单，让用户以低价购买优质物品。上文已说明拼多多围绕低价爆款的战略设计出了品类+个性化商品推荐的特色，结合上拼单的核心玩法，则一个拼多多用户的基本购物流程应该是：首页——翻看品类tab页（或点击底部推荐icon）——翻看商品推荐列表——查看商品详情——发起拼单——支付成功。来看看在这个流程中拼多多是怎样引导用户的。
首页：
- 取消顶部搜索框，减少了用户直接搜索商品而跳走的比率。
- 首页模块较少，在首焦、功能性入口、大促楼层之下并无其他电商平台习见的各种特色频道和场景频道，而是直接接入商品推荐列表，使得推荐商品在首屏即可露出。
- 品类tab作为固定的顶部导航栏，用户左右滑动即可切换tab。
品类tab页：品类tab页在二级类目下即是商品推荐列表，没有筛选功能，用户可以做的就是不断下滑。
以上两个环节的主要目的，在于用精简的设计营造用户逛低价大卖场的场景感，吸引用户在商品推荐页不断下滑浏览，最终吸引用户点击进入商详页。此后页面的设计的核心目的则是引导用户迅速成单。
商详页：
- 在商品图左上方（下滑后在顶部导航栏正中）不断浮层展示其他用户的发起拼单、拼单成功、五星评价等正面用户行为，利用用户背书，提高用户对商品的信任度。
- 下方购买栏，展示单独购买和发起拼单两个按钮，单独购物设置较高价格，利用用户占便宜的心理引导用户发起拼单。
发起拼单：
- 取消购物车设计，缩短用户决策路径；
- 全场默认包邮，减小用户决策成本，引导用户迅速下单。
拼多多的拼单是同时支持陌生人拼单和好友拼单的。陌生人拼单的优点在于快速成单，但产品更鼓励的方式是发起拼单支付后再分享到朋友圈的好友拼单玩法。后者的目的在于通过社交元素吸引更多的流量。
当然，更值得一提的，让拼多多脱颖而出（也让它备受诟病）的应当是它在拼单的主流程之外的各种社交裂变玩法。
基本特点可概括为利用优惠、现金刺激，诱导用户分享，在用户社交关系链中不断传播，从而达到获取新用户、激活老用户的目的。
目前平台上的各种社交玩法有如下多种：
- 助力享免单：邀请新用户助力，达到一定人数可免费获得商品。
- 砍价免费拿：分享邀请好友砍价，砍价到0元可免费获得商品。
- 一分抽好礼：支付一分钱开团并邀请好友参团，成团后所有成员获得抽奖机会。
- 帮帮免费团：免费开团并邀请好友帮忙支付一定金额，成团后团长获得商品。
- 天天领现金：获得红包，通过邀请好友等方式拆红包，拆足金额用户可得到现金券。
助力、砍价、抽奖等方式活动规则简单明确，获取流量效果显著，现在已为各大社交电商所借鉴。帮帮免费团的利己属性太强，笔者有点怀疑其线上效果。本文主要天天领现金这一玩法。
天天领现金的活动在安卓端和iOS端有一定差异（价格歧视），这里以iOS端为例做分析。其基本的业务流程如下：
笔者拟从两个角度来探讨这个玩法：
第一，多层次、多维度的诱导社交分享。红包总金额极大，用户需要多次分享才能达到条件。用户拆的第一份金额大（总金额40%左右），利用用户兴奋感迅速引导分享并给用户拆第二金额，持续的金额形成持续的分享力。新用户拆得金额多，老用户拆得金额少，引导用户主动拉新。好友若有红包活动，则同时自己也能拆得金额，互惠互利，引导用户互相分享，形成多向沟通；好友若无红包活动，则发给好友红包，形成新的传播。一个50元的红包能形成巨大的分享链条，而最厉害的地方在于只有达到了条件，金额才是有效的——于是，持续的反馈和对沉没成本的不舍会让用户在开始任务之后想方设法去完成（当然，要控制任务的链条不要超过用户耐心的限度）；而如果用户未能达成任务，则先前所有的分享都不过是为平台做嫁衣裳——平台通过用户的分享免费收获了一批流量。
第二，多样的游戏规则。不得不说这个分享的链条是过长的。因此拼多多在分享的主线任务外还加入了一些支线任务。其一是拆整点红包，通过抢红包可以更快达成任务。其二是抽奖，相比拆50元红包的困难，抽奖必得优惠更为简单。其三是通过完成拼单拆红包，引导用户下单是平台最终的目的，手段（红包补贴）与目的（引导下单）的置换和互相促进也是精妙的。
三、困境与破局
不妨将拼多多的模式归为低价策略+社交裂变玩法。这两者成就了拼多多，但也让现在的拼多多深陷泥淖之中。
困境之一：低价策略让拼多多选择了接手低端供应链。而随之而来的假货、山寨货、劣质货问题成了拼多多最深的痛。对于假货，平台可以采取严格的审核和严厉的惩罚加以整治；对于山寨货，可以整治与引导双管齐下；但对于劣质货，则受制于中小商家自身的生产能力，并非平台以一时之力就能迅速解决的。这必然成为拼多多发展路途中绕不过去的一道难题——淘宝曾经踩过的坑，拼多多是要用同样的步伐再踩一遍，还是另辟蹊径？
困境之二：依靠着微信巨大的流量福利，社交裂变玩法让拼多多的流量以指数级飞增，但同样也埋下了隐患。第一，这些玩法主要仍是单方获利而做不到互惠互利，其本质上是消费了发起者一方的社交货币，其病毒式的传播也让不少用户深受其扰；第二，其玩法引入了游戏玩法的许多优点，也带上了游戏玩法的一大缺点：难以保证长久的生命力。不变的酬赏带给用户的吸引力会随着用户使用频次增加而迅速下降。这就逼迫着玩法的不断更新迭代和创作，给用户制造新奇感与多变的酬赏。
黄峥曾在发言中称拼多多要做Costco+Disney的模式，如果笔者的理解没有错的话，这两项正好可以对应上面两部分。所以拼多多的破局也应当在个中寻求突破。
破局之一：通过C2B，推动低端供应链的升级。中小厂商的供应链是拼多多起家之本，但也拖累了拼多多的进一步升级。掌握供应链才是电商的核心护城河所在。拼多多对供应链的破局，应当在努力发展C2B的模式上。所谓C2B，就是在消费者侧聚集消费者的需求后，对供应商侧进行批量化的定制。网易严选、小米优品、京造的终极模式也是如此。只不过两者的进路不同。由此，来倒推原本低端供应链的小厂商在单品上做到极致。——这可以看做是拼多多对供应链的独特的赋能形式，也是拼多多引导中小厂商升级的一个较合适的途径。笔者认为，拼多多未来的主要供应链，可能是一至数个超强单品对应一个厂商的形式。当然高端供应商和品牌商的引进，也是应当去推进的，但有阿里与京东的大山在前，且其与主站拼团玩法的抵触，可能是一个较难解决的问题。
破局之二：增加更多方向的游戏性玩法，减弱社交裂变的强度。随着产品覆盖率的提高，拉新的成本会越来越高，接下来拼多多应当更多地去考虑如何激活和留存用户。另一方面，社交裂变玩法对用户社交货币的消耗大，其针对的用户群体是社交货币价值较低的用户。但随着用户群体的扩大化，对社交货币价值较高的用户群体需求，该如何去满足也是一个值得思考的问题。推出更多短分享路径的社交玩法，或者弱分享性而强调站内互动的游戏玩法，或许是可行之道。