"In the future, the whole world will be digitized, and everything will have a replica in the virtual digital world, like a mirror of the real world."
Kevin Kelly, the author of "Out of Control", predicted at the 2019 Digital Expo that the next 30 years will be "a never-ending fusion of people, machines, and nature."
In one sentence, it also opened up the imagination about virtual digital humans. In 2021, virtual digital humans under the concept of metaverse will rise. Concerts, variety shows, endorsements, catwalk shows, talk shows, short dramas, live broadcasts... the virtual digital human with "Eighteen martial arts" has attracted the attention of hundreds of millions of traffic, enterprise focus, and capital pursuit. Under the clarion call and Dongfeng, the virtual digital human seems to be endowed with a higher level of meaning, from the auxiliary role of "tool empowerment" in the Web2 world, to become an indispensable key puzzle and scene entrance in the Web3 world.
In this wave of virtual digital humans, some core issues are unavoidable. From now on, digital humans that have been hatched and will be hatched will face the same problem-how to live? And how to live better? In the long run, under the two environmental orders of Web2 and Web3, in what direction will virtual digital humans evolve? What kind of business model has grown? "From Web2 to Web3, the Evolution of the Value of Virtual Digital Humans" produced by Hashpower Think Tank is released! Trying to sort out the value logic and growth context of virtual digital human from the two different perspectives of Web2 and Web3, so as to look forward to and discuss the feasible direction and business prospect of virtual digital human in the future.
"Creating Man" Notes
Under the two-way drive of technology and demand, the virtual digital human will become one of the biggest outlets in 2022. According to data from Tianyancha, there are more than 288,000 companies related to "virtual humans" and "digital humans" in my country. Among them, nearly 70% of virtual human companies were established within one year. The story of "man-made" is constantly being staged. Why does the industry become keen on "man-made"? According to the report, this phenomenon-level popularity is mainly catalyzed by the following factors:
(1) Cultural Identity: Emotional Resonance and Secondary Aesthetic Migration of Generation Z
Generation Z refers to the generation born between 1995 and 2009. They were born into the Internet information age seamlessly. As true "Internet natives", the era has endowed them with unique generational characteristics: they not only pursue a unique self, but also have a unified cultural consensus. They not only enjoy independent space, but also desire group recognition. They pursue emotional immersion and interactive participation. Virtual digital people Through the characteristics and expressions that conform to the personality of the characters, a deep emotional link is formed with consumers such as Generation Z, which makes them have a strong emotional resonance and cultural identity.
(2) Business needs: IP influence and traffic effect reshape business logic
At present, there is a certain market demand for virtual digital humans, and the commercial value is constantly being explored. Virtual image IP can be used to upgrade corporate brands to achieve innovation and empowerment, create virtual IP that matches the brand's cultural texture, or "resurrect the traditional graphic image of the brand" "It has become an important factor to promote the transformation and upgrading of the brand and stand out in the fierce market competition.
(3) The accelerated development of digital technology and cyberspace provides a "petri dish" for virtual digital humans
With the advancement of integrated digital technologies such as computer graphics, deep learning, speech synthesis, and brain-inspired science, virtual digital humans have entered reality from science fiction. 2020 is the critical point for the virtualization of human society. The impact of all accelerated the formation and development of the Metaverse. Its social identity has changed from a supplement to the real world to a digital parallel universe beyond the real world, a virtualization of the intricate social network between all digital twins in the physical world, including "things" and "people" People are no longer satisfied with the physical space, but pursue more possibilities in the spiritual world, and the accelerated expansion of digital technology and cyberspace just provides a "petri dish" for virtual digital humans.
Industry chain view multi-domain penetration, pan-entertainment, metaverse may be the main track
The report scans and analyzes the industry ecology and upstream and downstream of virtual digital humans. From a vertical perspective, the domestic virtual digital human industry chain can be divided into the basic layer, platform layer, and application layer.
Table 1 View of virtual digital human industry chain
Basic layer: Provide basic software and hardware support for virtual digital humans. Hardware includes display devices, optical devices, sensors, chips, etc. The main focus is on artificial intelligence, motion capture, modeling and rendering, and technical services for virtual digital humans. At present, base-layer manufacturers with top software and hardware capabilities have been immersed in the industry for many years, forming strong technical barriers.
Representative companies: iFlytek, Zhuiyi Technology, Xiaoice, Biaobei Technology, Ruilai Technology and other artificial intelligence institutions have natural advantages.
Platform layer: including software and hardware systems, production technology service platform and AI capability platform, providing technical capabilities for the production and development of virtual digital humans. Mainly responsible for the operation of the virtual digital human, including the appearance design, packaging, publicity, landing and training of the virtual digital human.
Representative companies: Shanghai Henian, Lehua Entertainment, Dongtu Universe, Next World Culture, Chuangyi Video and other companies belong to this category.
Application layer: Provide customized virtual digital human application solutions in combination with actual application scenarios and customer needs.
Representative companies: Mango Super Media, Aofei Entertainment and Bilibili, etc. apply virtual anchors and virtual idols to entertainment content.
In the global ecology of the upstream and downstream of the industry, the participating companies have their own "slots" and occupy different vertical subdivision tracks.
Table 2 Ecological map of virtual digital human industry
At the same time, some companies have launched self-developed open platforms that support users to build their own virtual human images within 1 minute and generate unique voices. This also indicates that the threshold for virtual digital humans is further lowered, and the Stepping into a standardized, engineering, and editable large-scale production mode.
Table 3 Catalog of some open platforms of virtual digital humans in China
(prepared by Computing Power Think Tank)
The testing ground and outpost for virtual digital humans to develop Web3
In recent years, the "main stage" of virtual digital humans has begun to migrate from Web2 to Web3. Fearing that the Internet dividend of Web2 will peak, major Internet companies at home and abroad have begun to form teams to explore Web3. The key special "card position" and the increasingly accessible product feasibility are regarded as the testing ground and outpost for developing Web3. It can be seen from Baidu, Huawei, Byte, etc. that they have launched virtual digital human beings. One spot.
In the currently foreseeable push stack for building Web3: blockchain, metaverse, encrypted assets, DAO, and NFT are all indispensable and important components, and with virtual digital humans as the "anchor point", going up is the metaverse , Opening up the interface between digital and reality is a status symbol for entering the Metaverse. Going horizontally, combining NFT and DAO can produce new value effects and IP effects, which also allows the ownership of assets and data to be attributed to individuals, with the conditions and possibilities for realization.
As Tim Sweeney, CEO of the well-known game developer Epic Games, said: Metaverse will be an unprecedented large-scale participatory medium, all users can participate, create, share and profit from it, and the virtual digital avatar of users (Avatar) can freely shuttle between different platforms, and everyone will have their own common identity and universal wallet, which will also be the blueprint for the value evolution of virtual digital human "future progress".
▶ Relying on DID technology, the virtual digital person may constitute an important identity infrastructure and scene entrance of the Metaverse
The virtual digital human is the digital avatar of the real user in the Metaverse. In order to ensure that the digital avatar can move freely among the major platforms of the Metaverse, DID is an indispensable and important part. The autonomy and platform versatility of DID technology have verified the future use prospects of virtual digital human beings in the metaverse of "one card for all". At the same time, DID can confirm the data generated by all transactions and activities of the user in the metaverse, so that the data can return to the owner.
▶ NFT+ virtual digital human: constitutes a new "marketing field" in Metaverse
As two relatively independent tracks, NFT and digital human beings are not highly correlated individually. However, Li Han, a partner of Qulai Communication, started from the perspective of new retail to explain the relationship between NFT and digital human beings in Yuan Dynasty. Positioning in the universe offers new ideas.
For the brand side, in the Metaverse, NFT and virtual digital humans can provide two completely different marketing methods. As a digital commodity composed of digital assets, NFT has "uniqueness" and "traceability". Brands can carry out precise marketing to metaverse users according to these two characteristics of NFT, and virtual digital people rely on their cutting-edge virtual images. As well as intelligent interactive functions, it is easier for Metaverse users to pay attention to it. Therefore, the brand side can use the virtual digital human to promote and catch customers' attention in the first place. The two are complementary and compatible with each other, and are expected to constitute a new "marketing field" in Metaverse.
▶ DAO activates the "creative soul" of a virtual digital human
The "pioneering" organizational form of DAO has also established a "positive cycle, self-operating" underlying business model for virtual digital people. This model allows community members to directly create and spread value, which makes fan positioning in the traditional sense From "I support" to "I create". Combining the interests of Web3 and returning to the core value of the community, community creators can obtain benefits that match their own creations, share IP growth dividends, and truly activate the "creative soul" of virtual digital humans.
Commercialization Dilemma and Compliance Risk
In general, no matter from the perspective of business, application or technology, the virtual digital human industry is still in the transition stage from the market incubation period to the development period. Most of the major domestic manufacturers are still in the testing and exploration stage of testing product feasibility, creating benchmark IP, and broadening business paths. There is still a long way to go before commercial scale promotion. Problems and challenges are still constrained, mainly reflected in the following:
(1) The business path is single, the monetization method is limited, the operation succession is weak, and the cost is high
Virtual digital humans also need to find their own way of survival, but at present, the "survival fundamentals" belonging to digital humans are still relatively narrow. At present, in addition to the realization of traffic, there is no particularly clear and considerable business path. Virtual delivery anchors can save business labor costs, but the effectiveness and credibility of the interaction methods and evaluation functions have yet to be verified. The virtual media anchors and reporters who have attracted widespread attention with the help of the Spring Festival Gala and the Winter Olympics seem to be just a form of convenience. It is not big, and only a few IPs that use unique personalities to show the corporate brand image and be used for marketing can be remembered.
Moreover, the exit of virtual digital humans lies in the continuous management and operation behind the scenes, which requires early traffic dissemination and excavation and production of personalized content. The investment in the cultivation stage is high. The cycle of IP incubation and the test of operational capabilities may cause a large wave of digital people to perish in the upsurge of competition.
(2) Homogenization is serious, and personalized interaction is a shortcoming. It is necessary to provide emotional value and content value in the future
According to Qixinbao data, in 2020, the number of new domestic virtual digital human-related companies will be 36,080, and in 2021, the number will reach 66,293, an increase of 80% year-on-year. According to data from Tianyancha, there are about 300,000 companies related to "virtual digital humans" in my country, and the compound growth rate of newly registered companies in the past five years is nearly 60%. "Homogeneity and supernatural phenomena" have become a real dilemma that virtual digital humans have to face. The saturation of the supply side also means that the aesthetic taste of the demand side will also improve, and the demand for high-quality digital humans and excellent works will be enlarged. , the evaluation dimensions will be more diverse. Users will no longer be attracted only by the beautiful "face value" of the virtual digital human, but will further see the performance, connotation and even spiritual soul behind the digital human. Personalized interaction will become a key function. Being able to provide emotional and content value will be a must.
(3) Compliance issues and ethical dilemmas
As a new species, virtual digital human is between reality and virtuality. Its actual operation and behavior trajectory need more careful attention in terms of compliance and ethics. Based on the current situation, the possible legal risks are mainly attributed to:
▶ Intellectual Property Issues
Virtual digital human multi-subject collaboration and adaptation applications and creations that cross virtual and real boundaries may involve copyright ownership and property rights disputes. Before commercial use, compliance management and risk screening must be done in advance. In addition, the consent and authorization of the real person must be obtained when creating the virtual avatar (Avatar) that anchors the real person. Once the users, operators and managers of the virtual digital human use it to make speeches and actions that violate the will of the real person's authorizer, It is very likely to face the legal risk of violating the personality rights of others.
▶ The balance between the fidelity of virtual digital human and the granularity of private data
Since the birth of the virtual digital human, it has been doomed to the evolutionary path of mirror twins and mind cloning. The more "human-like" the virtual digital human is, the easier it is to arouse emotional resonance, but this is bound to fall into a privacy paradox. Fidelity depends on the feeding of a large amount of personal data in deep learning. As the underlying resources and core raw materials that support the continuous operation of digital humans, individual privacy data needs to be constantly updated. In the process, "algorithmic bias" and "malicious Substituting in, the final formed virtual digital human will react algorithm discrimination and prejudice to human beings, forming a deformed information cocoon, and the space for users to think independently will be subtly squeezed. Therefore, in the compliance collection, storage and management of data, privacy risks need to be paid attention to, and algorithm modeling should be verifiable and interpretable as much as possible, so as to avoid the risk of problems in the virtual world being transmitted to the real world.
Trend Outlook
So what will the future hold for digital humans? In what direction will it evolve? In this report, the following outlook is proposed:
(1) In the short to medium term, domestic virtual digital humans are expected to achieve large-scale application in specific service-oriented fields
At this stage, domestic virtual digital humans are mainly working on specific service ends, such as virtual customer service, virtual shopping guides, virtual guides, virtual employees, etc. It is intuitively visible that service-oriented virtual humans are becoming increasingly popular in film and television, consumer retail, finance, real estate, It is standard in industries such as property, education, and cultural tourism, and this trend will only increase in the future.
Table 4 Service-type virtual digital human is applied in many fields
(2) The rise of UGC and the deepening of PGC, combined with the organizational form of DAO, can enable ecological participants to share IP dividends, and virtual content is also expected to usher in a creative blowout
Following the Internet, the introduction of virtual digital humans may usher in a "big evolution" in the logic of content production. On the one hand, the large-scale, intelligent, and customized production of virtual digital human content has become a new way of creation. Based on programmable settings, some content with specific needs can be "generated with one click", and some stylized, standardized content text and Process management can also be "let go of people", the marginal cost of content production is decreasing day by day, and the efficiency and magnitude of content output will also experience a new round of exponential rise. On the other hand, the creation and operation of virtual digital human beings will go hand in hand with PGC+UGC. As the B-end scene matures and gradually penetrates into the C-end, manufacturers begin to pay attention to UGC, consumer-grade tools and C-end consumption subscription system, which also It has promoted the launch of some programmable virtual digital human platforms, making it possible for users to customize and self-configure digital human beings. In addition, combined with the DAO model, everyone is not only a creator of value, but also a sharer of value. This positive circular token incentive model and community autonomy mechanism provide a rich "fertile soil" for the creation of virtual content.
(3) Under the productivity and production relationship innovation of Web3, it will bring a new round of IP incubation and commercialization innovation for virtual digital humans, and at the same time, the construction of trusted digital identity governance system and network security system is imminent
Virtual digital humans have existed for a long time, but in the context of Web3, they seem to have a new vitality and are gradually evolving into new species and new media. In the framework of the Web3 world, Web3 is the underlying facility, and the Metaverse is the For the superstructure, for both, the "slot" of the virtual digital human is very important. As the carrier and extension of real identity mapping in the virtual world, virtual digital human is combined with PFP NFT ((Profile Picture, NFT) or digital collection NFT, relying on DID technology and data interconnection, and it is expected to open up identity authentication on various platforms in the future , so as to truly realize the vision of "you can wander in the Web3 world with only one identity", but this will inevitably lead to the issue of digital identity governance, how to ensure the security and credibility of identities, and establish traceable distributed digital identities The system is also imminent.