Buy a house to listen to the party

Buy a house to listen to the party's words
When it comes to buying a house to listen to the party's words, many people will definitely laugh at the People's Daily: 4000 points is the starting point of the bull market. But People's Daily is only an official media after all. Some will reflect policies, but some will just show flattery, so it's okay to laugh at it, but don't make trouble with money.


So why buy a house to listen to the party's words? The reasoning is simple and clear.


Let's think about it, what are the factors that affect the fluctuation or rise of house prices? labor cost? Raw material cost? That is really not high in terms of total cost. Many raw materials are excess capacity. Even if it increases, the impact on real estate will be limited. The labor cost in China is only a fraction of that in developed countries, and it is not expensive. It is the land cost and tax cost that the masses know, and these two are in the hands of the government, which can also be said to be a monopoly in the hands of the government.


In addition, what can highly affect housing prices? Some people may think of four trillion, that is, credit control. Where is the credit? Central Bank! And China's central bank has little independence and is ultimately back in the hands of the government.


Isn't this conclusion clear? When the main and key fluctuation factors of housing prices, namely land, credit, and tax rates are all in the hands of the government, the government's awareness can often be clearly reflected in the market price.


Naturally, some people will say: Isn't the government regulating housing prices and making housing prices fall? How come it only goes up for so many years? The question is which regulation has explicitly said that it will let house prices fall? This is just the self-indulgent sentimentality of many unreasonable spectators, because from the perspective of the government's interests, it is better to see housing prices rising than falling. Regulation is only to stabilize housing prices and release risks, not to make housing prices fall or plummet. Slightly more down, the government does not introduce a rescue policy?

In short, it is right to imagine the government as an adult, because the so-called government is also composed of officials, and after all, it will only proceed from self-interest.


In addition to land, credit, and tax rates, another key factor in housing prices is regulatory policies. For example, when the Shanghai regulatory government comes out and raises the down payment, you can't afford to buy a house; once you restrict the purchase conditions, people who can buy a house will not be able to buy a house. Can't buy it; I deleted most of it from the demand side at once, so do you think the house price will continue to rise? (Hot cities are still in the habit of increasing, but they will definitely become smaller and smaller, and some places may drop slightly than expected.)


And Ningbo, where the author lives, let alone, there have been more than 500 daily transactions in the past few months. , Now this period of time has returned to more than 100 sets of normal levels, and the local control policies have not come, and I have begun to be frightened by external control policies. It can be seen that the control policies are terrible, that is to say, each time the control policies are roughly In fact, the goal has been achieved, but the goal that many people think they are right has not been achieved.

In addition to the above major factors, there is also a secondary factor that is the state-owned enterprises in the real estate industry. In the past two years, the land kings have basically been included by the state-owned enterprises. In other words, in the real estate industry, the government almost monopolizes the one-stop service.


Now you know why you need to listen to the party's words to buy a house. If the party tells you not to buy it, don't buy it. If there is a slight encouragement, you must start immediately, be quick and ruthless. Judging from the current situation, the buyers who are waiting and watching Preliminary inspections can be carried out, and starting in the second half of next year, you can slowly enter the market.


In addition, for those living in the first-tier cities, it will definitely rise after the regulation is over, because the regulation policy is still a temporary way of blocking, and the regulation policy cannot exist for a long time. Because the supply of land has not increased, and the original demand side has been suppressed, think about the decrease in the supply of houses in two or three years, and the sudden increase in demand after the regulation is released?
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