The digital economy is divided into three stages: digitization, Internet (fixed Internet & mobile Internet & Internet of Things), and digital twins. It is currently in the second stage. Different countries, different regions, different industries, and different companies have different development processes for the digital economy. At present, my country is in the mid-term of the digital economy. Technological progress has an increasing impact on social development, and production methods, lifestyles, and business models are all accelerating Evolution. In general, the demand for social productivity has promoted technological progress, and technological progress has further promoted economic development. The key technological development trends in the digital economy in the next five years are as follows:
One
Internet and Internet of Things
With the rise of the Internet ecosystem of major Internet companies, the entire toC Internet ecosystem has entered the era of Internet company oligopoly and even complete monopoly in some areas. What follows is that the era of race-staking in the toC market has ended, and small and medium-sized Internet companies are already very busy. It is difficult to gain market share and become bigger and stronger through simple investment and entrepreneurship, and the entire Internet ecosystem enters the second half.
The second half is a huge to B era. Internet companies, telecom operators, and software companies have entered the main battlefield of to B. In the next five years, to B is expected to generate a large market of 20 trillion yuan, concentrated in enterprise cloud computing, industrial Digitalization, industrial design, industrial Internet, intelligent manufacturing, virtual private network, digital twin factory, industrial robot and other fields.
two
cloud computing
1. Cloud and network integration: telecom operators' stepping stone for government and enterprise industries
Cloud network integration is a major trend in the future, and it will gradually upgrade from PaaS/SaaS, and the market value will gradually increase. Therefore, in the next five years, the cloud network integration of telecom operators will develop in the direction of SaaS. Telecom operators will be based on the cloud network integration policy. Enterprise business will have a large market space in the future, and it will have unparalleled advantages over Internet companies in terms of network.
2. SaaS cloud service: a new giant in Chinese marketing will be born
The development of the domestic digital economy has shifted from imitating the development process of Europe and the United States to independent innovation. Taking the public cloud as an example, SaaS services can bring huge cost savings to enterprises. Compared with Europe and the United States, the domestic SaaS industry has huge potential.
It is foreseeable that in the next 5 years, a super SaaS platform will also be born in China. I hope that companies other than BAT and other giants, such as telecom operators, software companies, and cloud service companies, will flourish and new SaaS giants will emerge.
3. Cloud storage services: cloud storage based on mobile internet social networking will explode
With the deepening of mobile Internet social platforms, social software is gradually extending from toC to toB. The socialization of corporate organizational structures has also changed the new ecology of mobile Internet. The utilization rate of email mailboxes is declining, and many ordinary file exchanges are changing from Mailbox migration to social software. What follows is the bottleneck problem of mobile phone storage. Five years ago, the mainstream of mobile phone storage was 64G, and it is currently 256G. In the next five years, the cost of mobile phones is rising, giving rise to an explosion in the mobile Internet, social software, and personal and enterprise cloud storage markets.
three
Digital twin
The connotation of the digital twin city is to map the physical environment and management process activities in the urban environment in the virtual digital environment during the construction of urban information, and realize sustainable urban management through the concept of digital twin and a unified platform .
Because of the high process requirements, digital twins originate from high-end equipment manufacturing and have great application value in this field. Using three-dimensional digital design technology and pre-equipment technology, the three-dimensional design workstation does part design and assembly design, replacing the high-end equipment in the past which required thousands of people to draw by hand. The full three-dimensional digital design development cycle is shortened, the amount of rework is reduced, the quality is higher, the cost is lower, and the competitiveness in the international market is better. Digital twins are also expanding from high-end manufacturing to consumer goods manufacturing and infrastructure.
four
Big Data
Big data is a product of the digital economy era. Therefore, data rights are a new type of property rights that are different from property rights and intellectual property rights. Only when data property rights are clearly defined can data flow reasonably in accordance with market rules and capital gains, thereby reducing information islands and avoiding Fall into the digital divide.
my country has a huge global Internet consumer group, and user data such as searches, browsing, and purchases are collected by Internet companies. In the past, users could only passively push information or be transferred to a third party. As people pay more and more attention to personal data, the situation of data infringement is attracting strong attention from consumers, and netizens are beginning to enter a data awakening state. Data awakening will also promote national legislation on data rights.
Fives
Blockchain
1. Blockchain positioning: contract mechanism in the digital field
In the era of industrial economy, transactions are agreed and realized through the liability for breach clauses in tangible contracts; the era of digital economy also requires a credit mechanism, but the difference is that it is in a digital environment, and the essence of market economy is a credit economy.
2. Digital currency enters the commercialization stage
The current financial system in the physical field is also based on the industrial economy, and the era of digital economy will inevitably call for a new financial system. Fan Yifei, the deputy governor of the central bank, once clearly stated that the central bank of China’s digital currency should adopt a two-tier operating system. The People’s Bank of China first exchanges the digital currency to banks or other operating institutions, and then these institutions exchange it to the public. Different from paper money, all transaction processes of every penny involved are traceable, which achieves an effect that cannot be achieved in the physical field.
six
5G technology
Before the advent of the 4G era, mobile communication technology lags behind market demand. People generally expect ubiquitous network connections. From fixed Internet to mobile Internet, it is a visible market demand that activates a rich market format. For 5G networks, market demand has not been fully tapped. Therefore, in the next 5 years, China's 5G will gradually enter the period of large-scale development from the introduction period. The marginal benefits of the migration from 4G to 5G in various industries are not obvious. The popularization of various applications such as VR, industrial Internet, 8K HD, and cloud desktop will drive the demand for 5G networks.
Seven
6G technology
Compared with 5G, 6G will not only greatly increase the capacity, bandwidth, and delay, but also more closely integrate with the physical field, with production, and with life.
6G will move towards terahertz frequencies, and at the same time will introduce blockchain-based dynamic frequency band sharing technology, the sharing of data and technology within the digital domain, and the interaction between the physical domain and the digital domain must be completed through a trusted mechanism. Blockchain is more appropriate for this role. In addition, with the exponential increase of 5G and even 6G network speeds, terminal storage will create bottlenecks. Technological advancement, productivity improvement requirements, lifestyle requirements, market scale requirements, etc. are a mutually reinforcing process, and a standardized digital system is established through digital twins. Field, let it better serve mankind.
Eight
Quantum technology
Quantum information science is an emerging field arising from the combination of quantum mechanics and information science. The key development directions include quantum communication, quantum measurement, and quantum computing. The three fields are for secure communication, super computing, and precision detection. The classic limits of information science. Although most of the technologies are still in the stage of experimentation and pilot demonstration, in the future, quantum technology may become the "new infrastructure" in the era of smart economy.
The current data center construction model will continue, but future computing will return from large and super large data centers to edge computing. Similar to the development of artificial intelligence, there will be three stages of dedicated artificial intelligence, general artificial intelligence, and independent innovation artificial intelligence. Quantum computing will also experience three stages: dedicated quantum computing (also known as annealing quantum computing), general quantum computing, and super quantum computing. In the next five years, general-purpose quantum computing will enter the embryonic stage.
nine
artificial intelligence
Just like entering the digital economy from the industrial economy, the next stage of the digital economy is the smart economy. Just as the digital economy has sprouted in the industrial economy era, the digital economy era has already had dedicated artificial intelligence technologies, such as face recognition, image recognition, intelligent voice recognition, L4 level driverless, etc., and these dedicated artificial intelligence 3 A combination of one and more is general artificial intelligence. In the next 5 years, the germination of general artificial intelligence will appear in some mature fields.
In short, the driving force for technological development comes from breaking the economic bottleneck, and technological development will further promote economic development. In this cycle, analyzing its key nature is very important for understanding the digital economy and grasping the historical opportunity period.