A sharp look at real estate
Sanfeng soft Zhang Sanfeng
The famous host Bai Yansong once angrily criticized real estate: "High housing prices not only destroy the imagination of young people, but even destroy the love of countless young people."
In my opinion, Bai Yansong's description of real estate is sharp. "Anxiety" seems to have become a common mental state among young people. There was once a program conducted a questionnaire surveying young people's anxiety. The results showed that more than 96% of people have anxiety symptoms, and 54% of them have anxiety symptoms every day.
High house prices are "destroying" young people?
Another result of the investigation report is that the main cause of anxiety is lack of money. Where did their money go? It is undeniable that many young people are now more "willing to enjoy" and spend more money. But I think this enjoyment is more about the release of pressure, the pressure of life, the pressure of work, the pressure of marriage, the pressure of buying a house...
High housing prices are even destroying China’s economy. "Economic internal circulation" has become a general trend.
01 Low consumption levels.
We have to admit that for families who are still repaying their mortgages, any consumption is "stretched", and any expenditure is required. Think twice. Basically 70% of each month's income needs to be used to repay the mortgage, not to consume, not to get sick, not to quit. Chen Yanbin, an economics expert at Renmin University of China, said that China's current consumption rate is only 39%, which is completely defeated by India's 66% and Brazil's 68%.
02 High mortgage debt
data shows that China's current total housing loans are about 29.8 trillion, of which more than 60 million personal commercial loans are superimposed on housing provident fund loans, so that at least 300 million housing slaves are burdened with high mortgage loans. Two months ago, the Central Bank released the "Urban Resident Household Debt Survey Report". The results showed that about 80% of households are burdened with huge mortgages, and 50% of households have no savings at all.
03 "Economic internal circulation" has become a general trend.
We know that economic development is linked to the level of consumption. With the development and growth of China over the years, many countries have taken admiration, so Western countries led by the United States have begun to suppress China's foreign trade, business transactions and other channels, and the development of the "economic external cycle" has been hindered. Therefore, in order to achieve economic transformation, it is an inevitable stage to control housing prices, enhance the consumption level of the people, and increase the flow rate of the "economic internal circulation".
Many people here have a misunderstanding that buying a house is also a consumption, and buying a house can also increase the economic flow rate.
First, now that money has flowed into real estate, the development of other industries has been marginalized. This is why there must be a long bull and a stable stock market must exist.
Second, although the house itself can be bought and sold, it does not belong to the category of "consumer goods" because the liquidity of house transactions is too poor and the speculative component is too high.
Third, in addition to fast economic development, it also pays attention to "stability", that is, if people encounter risks such as economic crises, people can quickly liquidate their assets to withstand the risks, and the real estate's liquidity ability is too low. , And cannot resist risks.
Summary: Bai Yansong bluntly pointed out that real estate is "destroying" young people's love and creativity, and there is nothing wrong with it. In addition, the economic daily and other party media also criticized the high housing prices. If this problem is not resolved, China's consumption rate will continue to decline. On the other hand, in India, the economy is so much behind us but the consumption rate is higher than ours. Doesn't this sound ironic?
How to deal with it
The main body of a society is the enterprise, and 80% of the wealth is created by the enterprise. Only when the enterprise develops can the country prosper. Then business development needs money, where does the money come from. Does the bank borrow it? Yes, borrow from the bank. However, borrowing from banks does not optimize the allocation of resources, and reforms are needed to waste resources. Stocks are to solve the problem of lack of money for enterprises, but the development of China's stock capital market is not sound, and it cannot effectively solve the problem of lack of money. In order to have sufficient funds for the reform and development of enterprises, and to achieve sufficient competition to realize the survival of the fittest, the state must support the stock market and allow enterprises to develop funds. If a company has no money to develop, it can't talk about high-tech.
Now China is hiding wealth for the people. The people put money in the bank. How can the money come out? Real estate? Obviously, I've overtaken it, and the risk of playing with that thing is already high. In terms of stocks, they are already at high positions and continue to set new highs. Then, who is the last picker? Obviously, institutions and big players are definitely not. The capital market is profit-seeking. If there is no profit, they will definitely not do it.