Real Estate Lecture Notes

1. Degree room

    General tone: find, hard currency

 

2. Junior high school "degree room" is more important

1. Shenzhen has too few “primary + junior high school” degrees

2. Primary school: parents are more important, children are obedient

3. Junior high school: The child is rebellious, the homework burden is too heavy, the knowledge structure is complicated, the competition is rising, and the parents are overwhelmed. Schools and training institutions are more important

4. The primary school has a helicopter, and the junior high school entrance examination and high school entrance examination are true skills

5. Invest early and enjoy the double benefits of degree + appreciation

 

3. The new degree housing is worth investing in

1. There are many large-scale degree rooms in China Resources City and Longhua. For example, the degree of Longguang City is more famous.

2. The old degree room is too expensive, many people think it is risky, and the new degree room has room for imagination and appreciation

 

4. Degree policy, difficult to change in the short and medium term

1. In the case of scarce high-quality educational resources, apart from housing, there is no better carrier of high-quality degree distribution that satisfies all parties

2. At present, Shenzhen is in the pilot university district, the primary school district policy, etc., but it is difficult to get rid of the absolute weight of the allocation of houses

 

5. Renovation is an export of Shenzhen real estate in the future

1. At the national level, encourage the revitalization of stock land, increase the sale and proportion of residential land, and determine land sale according to the spatial trend of population flow

2. Since the state has support, the local government will definitely implement the temporary measures for urban renewal in Shenzhen, which is in fact the implementation of national policies.

3. At present, the existing housing (including commercial offices) can be adjusted to public rental housing, lease operation, etc., the National Document No. 39 has clearly stipulated, which means that land degeneration (lower cost, mainly residential conversion) in big cities is an inevitable trend .

4. The commercial housing market will be significantly reduced, which is a great impact on real estate supply, development and investment, and there must be an export

5. In the future, more and more houses that were originally used for industrial purposes, such as innovative industrial houses and commercial apartments (the government has clearly given support for affordable housing), will be converted into residential or partial residential houses. Moreover, this interim measure has given a great deal of elaboration to the public facilities, which means that the facilities are mature and an obstacle to the degeneration of industrial land has been cleared.

6. In other big cities, there are great obstacles to the degeneration of industrial land, mainly due to the payment of huge land transfer fees, the state-owned enterprises do not let go of the land, the pressure on public facilities is great, and the interests of the government and enterprises are difficult to coordinate. Shenzhen has advantages, with less state-owned enterprises, less state-owned land, and greater local autonomy in the transformation of urban villages

 

6. Trends

Uptrend: more than 7,000 sets of transactions for 4-6 consecutive months

Downtrend: 4-6 consecutive months of trading volume below 5,000 units

Consolidation trend: volume hovering at 5000-7000 units

The regulation policy has caused fluctuations in the average price, but it cannot change the general trend. Adjustment is for better progress. 2017, moving forward in shock.

 

7. Nanshan is expected to have 9 new projects in the market in 2017, with only 2 new residential communities

1. Most of the products are commercial and residential products, among which commercial apartments, Shenzhen Bay and Qianhai are mainly large luxury houses

2. Xili has changed significantly. Relying on the concept of Liuxiandong headquarters base and university town, several projects have been born, and most of them are complexes

3. The prelude of high-end apartments in Shenzhen Bay will start, and Qianhai will usher in a small wave of apartment blowout period

Summary: Qianhai, Houhai, Shenzhen Bay, and Liuxiandong, the four major headquarters bases in Shenzhen, are all located in Nanshan. They are the key areas in Shenzhen. The whole area is generally luxurious and it is the main battlefield of Shenzhen capital.

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