It's been a long time since I wrote something, so I'll make a few more sentences today, hehe
1.
Is there any relationship between the real estate market and the stock market, real estate market and stock market? Answering this question can be attributed to whether the real economy is related to the stock market.
We all know that China's stock market is largely a speculative market. Why do I say
this? My opinion is this when analyzing whether the market is speculative or not. Based on the 4% return on government bonds, plus a 3% risk premium, that is all The return on investment in the stock market should be at least 7%
higher, and the price of our stock market is generally high. It is really difficult to achieve this rate of return through stock dividends. From the perspective of dividends, the investment value of China's stock market is small and speculation is very heavy.
In a speculative environment, the nature of money is to seek profit. Just imagine, if the real economy is sluggish and business is not doing well, what should these funds be like?
Naturally, they will be invested in other places to pursue profits. It's like the person you like suddenly changes his mind that day and doesn't like you anymore. It's hard for you to really not marry for life. The most sensible way is to find
another way, and the same is true for funds. When the real economy is not good, the stock market has become a good choice.
From what aspects can the downturn of the real economy be seen,
1. From the difference between broad money and narrow money. Let’s talk about the narrow currency M1, which can be simply understood as the banknotes issued by the central bank, and the broad currency M2, which is in addition to M1, plus the savings deposits of banks
and long-term deposits of enterprises. The deviation between M1 and M2 is large, indicating that the savings deposits of banks And corporate long-term deposits are larger, and what does this mean?
This is exactly the manifestation of the downturn in the real economy. Enterprises have excess funds and cannot invest, so they can only be placed in banks. It is necessary to know that these funds cannot be left idle and are waiting for a good place. Undoubtedly, the stock market has become
a good choice.
2 From the perspective of bank assets and loan scale, especially mortgage loans, if the scale is shrinking and the interest is rising, it also shows that the real estate market is beginning to decline.
Historically, between 2001 and 2005, the above situation occurred in the physical market, with a large deviation between m1 and m2, and bank loans shrunk, especially housing mortgages.
A large number of idle funds appeared in the physical market, which undoubtedly paved the way for the prosperity of the stock market.
Looking at the stock market, during this period, the following things happened in the stock market:
1. Banks can set up their own investment companies, what does this mean? This means that bank funds can now flow freely to the stock market, and this force will be a
big boost once the stock market is on an upward trend.
2 Stock reform.
These all provide support for the arrival of the bull market in the stock market.
Let's take a look at the profit model of the stock market: As mentioned
earlier, the Chinese stock market is very speculative, and it is not possible to earn profits from dividends. It can only be bought by buying low and buying high.
Simply put, the dealers have to eat the retail investors to maintain their lives, and the retail investors can only survive by following the dealers and eating the dealers. In this game process, the profit model is very single
and very fragile. This mode is the big fish eat. Small fish, and to maintain it, there must be fewer big fish and more small fish.
From before 2001, my country's stock market is such a model.
In fact, the stock market is also an ecosystem. We all know that there is a food chain in the ecosystem. The more complex the food chain, the more stable the ecosystem.
In the past stock market, the participants were nothing more than: securities companies, retail investors, private equity funds, and institutional investment. In this ecosystem, securities companies and institutions are big fish. They have the advantage of capital and information
to sit on the market, eat up the funds of retail investors, and keep the funds alive. The food chain for such a large fish to eat a small fish is simple and fragile. Unlike foreign stock markets, in addition to eating small fish, big fish also have abundant
aquatic plants, that is, dividends, which can sustain life. Their food chain is more complex and stable.
After 2001, participants in China's stock market became more complicated. In addition to the above, there were also fund companies and other investors. They all had the same taste, so that there were too many big fish, but not enough small fish
and no aquatic plants. Then the stock market could crash.
Combining the above, look at us now, since I was sensible, starting from high school, I found that in China, it is difficult to do business, so it is difficult, so difficult, the most business I hear is adults complaining that business is
not easy to do. And that's because the bank's interest rate is falling again and again, encouraging everyone to consume and invest, trying to use market means to stimulate the economy, and the result is futile. In these sluggish business conditions,
2005---At present, there are two kinds of businesses that are very prosperous, one is education, which is the reason for our crazy expansion of enrollment at that time, now education starts from children, look at the current kindergarten tuition fees Just know.
Because no matter how difficult it is, you have to read books. This is a Chinese tradition since ancient times.
The second is real estate. Since 2005, real estate has gone from a downturn to prosperity again. This is also the government's second way to stimulate the economy. His reason is that no matter how angry the people are, there must be a place to live.
Now the real estate market is booming, from big cities to small towns. , as long as you buy a house, I have never heard of anyone losing money. Under such circumstances, do you say that the stock market and other investment markets can be hot?
If you have money, you will also invest in real estate. It is unwise to speculate at this time.
There is a saying, called Hedong in 30 years, Hexi in 30 years, it is impossible for any market to always dominate the market, so is real estate. At present, the government is focusing on and controlling this crazy real estate market.
So now the real estate market is a small turning point in the upward process, or an inflection point in real estate.
The current real estate market is not the same as before. In addition to hype funds, it is more about the migration of the population in the process of urbanization, a large number of people owning cities, and urban congestion. This is the foundation
.
It’s just a matter of hyping up funds, it’s easy to control, and with some policies, the assets in the real estate market will naturally shrink, but the rigid demand for migrants to live in is difficult to solve. The real inflection point should be the introduction of these policies for migrants. When they can be solved well, the current purchase restriction order and the shrinking of loans are all
palliatives but not the root cause. Purchase restrictions in big cities have led to rising housing prices in surrounding small towns.
However, other markets in the stock market are worthy of attention recently. The reason is very simple. Banks have contracted loans, so where should those idle assets go. With the introduction of purchase restrictions, where should personal funds
go in today's increasingly severe currency world?