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Foreword
The first quarter economic data released in 4.17 led the media to face the theme of national economic downturn. The serious economic downturn is inevitable, and even a little common sense will be frightened. However, based on positive guidance, the media ’s focus of attention is how miserable foreign countries are. How much we have guarded against it, deliberately avoided the long-term effects of the epidemic on individuals. Economic data unravels the veil and has to face this problem.
On the night of 4.14, WeChat group began to circulate the DCEP pilot program called Digital Currency Electronic Payment .
4.9, the CPC Central Committee and State Council on the elements to build a better market allocation of institutional mechanisms of release.
4.17 nights, the Politburo meeting draft reiterated "Fangzhu not frying".
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A few ideas
The most serious impact of the epidemic is that a large number of people are unemployed. If they are unemployed, there will be no income. Without income, they will not be able to repay their loans. This is risk point A.
The main reason why real estate has soared is that as a source of income for local governments, under the tax reduction environment, it is superimposed on the difficulty of business operations, and the tax reduction is affirmative; the government does not open source and cut expenditures without the need to streamline personnel, civil servants How to guarantee salary?
Housing is not speculative. This is the top-level will and will not be shaken in the short term. However, when the local government reduces income and does not reduce expenditures, the local government has to eat empty, and has to consider real estate urinals under path dependence. This is risk point B.
For B, the element reform on April 9 is the antidote. If the element reform is actually implemented, it will be a huge social change comparable to reform and opening up. Let me not mention it for a while. The most important thing for the moment is to find government tax revenue. A new “source” has been created, which provides an alternative solution for local governments to reduce their dependence on real estate. Whether they are used or not, this is another topic.
Looking back at risk A, employment is reduced and residents ’income is reduced. In the past, the path reliance was on government investment and economic stimulus. In the past, all these schemes were fattening a small number of people. This is a less efficient way. If the money is paid directly to the residents, the operation is essentially the same in nature. There are too many intermediate links and too many benefits to hand over. In the end, there are not many in the hands of the residents.
However, the emergence of DCEP changed this situation. The top-level will reach the residents directly, and no middleman earns the difference. Provides the possibility for UBI (Basic Income for the People, which is to directly send money to the people). Benefit 1: The public can get the money and can repay the loan. If the loan needs to be changed, the risk A is avoided; Those who do not need to repay the loan can be used for consumption. Benefit two: DCEP will be popularized in one go. Benefit three: As for the benefits after the popularization of DCEP, let's not talk about this, think about it yourself.
These are several ideas that come to mind from the status quo. As for the future reality, they all come out.
As for individuals, I think the most important thing now is to survive the crisis steadily and study well during the crisis period. After the crisis, continue to follow the logic mentioned in " Why Learn Quantitative, because the Golden Decade of Securities is Coming ". This is also considered an arbitrage.
I think a lot, but I can say very little.
