link: https: //www.zhihu.com/question/279549681/answer/425416729
Source: know almost
copyrighted by the author. Commercial reprint please contact the author authorized, non-commercial reprint please indicate the source.
Waited almost a month, nothing has always been nothing particularly interesting answers. Forget it myself.
Why the United States failed to stop the rise of China? Because the world is not only the two countries, Sino-US ah. United States busy ...
What the United States that busy? To answer this question, we must be clear the United States in the 21st century global strategy, the so-called dumbbell strategy. The dumbbell deputy director of strategic gold had previously been interpreted in detail, broadly speaking here.
The so-called dumbbell strategy, or call the two oceans strategy. In the Americans, with the exception of North America, the global industry is mainly distributed in the Pacific West Bank and east coast of the Atlantic Ocean. Industry is the source of wealth is the threat of global hegemony. To control the world, we must rely on the advantages of American sea power, each maintain a base in the east coast of the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean in the West Bank, which is the ball at both ends of the dumbbell, that is, Western Europe and Japan and South Korea. The two "ball" of the United States alone are not rivals, obedient only to the United States when the satellite countries, the United States has become an accomplice of exploitation around the world. But the United States most worried about is the two "ball" together control the Eurasian continent, and that the United States can only go back to the Western Hemisphere. So the United States that the core strategy is to control the dumbbell between two "ball", "to", namely the Middle East, the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea, Central Asia. Even if unable to control not let others control.
In other words, the US fear most is "along the way." This is the will of US global hegemony thrown into the garbage heap of stuff.
Clear the US global strategy, let's look at what happened 20 years ago.
The late 1990s, the United States through the Plaza Accord to the Asian financial crisis a decade Sao operation, lying completely beat Japan, Japan demolished en echelon array of decades of painstaking efforts in Southeast Asia, also South Korea's Samsung Group half of the state-owned stake in the bag. South Korean scholars lamented worked hard for decades, eyes open all become Americans work out.
At a time when China has resisted the Soros attack in the wild in Hong Kong abruptly, economic "soft" (ying) landing successfully. At this point the United States for how to deal with Chinese opinion is split. Now the children often said Zhang, deputy director of China's imminent collapse of how to be, in fact, was forced to force the "21st century will be the Chinese century," also a large number of blows. After all, China's population growth rate and is placed there, the Chinese government plans for 2050 to become a moderately developed country is also public speaking. If you are not wearing colored glasses of a data control, it is difficult not to be blown. Coupled with China in the Hong Kong financial war victory, the US elite attitudes toward China is still serious.
In this debate, basically, the military department stressed that China threat theory (as long as he can fool the funds pipe deluge theory), economic sectors stressed that China opportunity theory (as long as I can make money on the tube he Hongshuitaotian). Two each have their own reasons, each no less controversy, and will have a variety of US policy toward China separatist turn of the century. Well of course the United States, the policy split is the norm, East West, a hammer stick is not a return to two back.
Since the country is difficult to reach a consensus, then the US policy has become largely see the stress response give them. In 1999, a little confusedly involved in a war in Kosovo.
There is one that one, the war in Kosovo and throughout the former Yugoslavia civil war, the main culprit is actually the old Europe, in addition to the purpose of the expulsion Westerner, it is to destroy the power of national independence in the Balkans - you tube socialism and capitalism, the key is to not let a bunch of Slavic slaves Unite.
After the pacification of the Balkans, the US geo-strategic European researchers found there was quite a bad sign. On the one hand, the reunification of Germany, which is a dominant force in the EU, Germany and France and Germany to become the main method auxiliary balance, while Germany and France and two together to divide up the former Soviet Union's sphere of influence. In this way, the EU, especially Germany's strength grew considerably. On the other hand, after the pacification of the Balkans, the axis of Germany and France continue to advance Asia Minor, to support Turkey Turks and pamper their big ideas, encouraging Turkey to expand the Caspian Sea, Central Asia, Xinjiang directions.
He said simply, Germany and France are the Americans blink of an eye engage in the European version of "along the way." Song Yichang year in the "Ocean Strategy in line" serialized in the conspiracy had pointed out the Europeans. Pan-Turkism popular the last two decades, the unrest in Xinjiang, Tibet and even Germany have become successful Xinjiang du du Camp, and behind it is the European version of "along the way" ambitions.
So, let's discuss the strategic choices facing the United States in the early 21st century.
Assuming that the United States decided not to fight the war on terror, not blending the situation in the Middle East and Central Asia, determined not to allow China to join WTO, but to China as the goal, the full implementation of China containment policy, then the world will happen in the 21st century?
Well first of all, Europe will continue in the name of anti-Chinese and anti-Communist banner to support pan-Turkism, take the opportunity to own forces to penetrate the Middle East and Central Asia. Europeans will take over the withdrawal of Russian socialist revival of the mess left behind, rein in Syria and Iraq, and Iran flirting, then north to the Westerner stuck in the Caucasus Mountains, east output Pan-Turkism messing five Central Asian countries and Xinjiang, final Central Asia possibly through a spring or something spring, open up the European version of the area all the way from the Balkans through the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea has been to Xinjiang.
Secondly, Europe will secretly to China through a joint transfusion Westerner, anyway, the history of this group of young twenty-five no fewer things PY trading with China, in reality they have been engaged in PY trading with Iran.
In the end, the United States will find themselves hard to contain China, but the Europeans landed picking peaches in the blink of an eye by the Americans weave the European version of the area all the way to get through. That Yankees really have to cry cry.
To maintain global hegemony is very hard, you must press two live in Eurasia. Fighting on both sides is certainly not to please, unless it can concentrate its troops in a short time annihilate an otherwise time once stretched, it is riding a tiger Board.
Two months ago, Kim told a deputy director clamor light fried Chinese coastal economic zone of the United States military officer, I believe you can do it, but we also can fry your light aircraft carrier. By the time you use now to control the world?
Americans tongue-tied.
Hard hate what the results will be Chinese? Of course, 20 years ago, China is not much way to the US aircraft carrier. But the Chinese people are like those in Iraq will be bribed warlords lookout from the sky, like the CIA, like it? Still we hold as a few decades ago as US tanks rushed into the anti-tank mines?
So many people think that 99 years May 8 US air strike me embassy in Belgrade in fact fire detection to China.
Chinese people are not united unity in the end, the Chinese nationalist sentiment in the end how strong, the Chinese Communist Party government 2 rule in the end how stable, is not just a little push can make China change of weather?
These issues, after China's 80 hand over his answer on that May.
Since China is not a short-lived fad can win, then "as long as he can fool funding tube Hongshuitaotian school" can only natural to think of ways to promote additional national interests (fraud funds). This time, bin Laden appeared in a very timely manner.
Bin Laden is not really the bombing of the World Trade Center is not important, important it is that Americans get an excuse to execute their strategic long-planned break wishful thinking Europeans. This is the beginning of this article dumbbells strategy. You should not engage in the area all the way to Europe via the Middle East, Central Asia do? I put Iraq and Afghanistan won two key nodes, see how you do.
In the Americans, dumbbell strategy to seize the heart of the Eurasian continent. Anyway, as long as you along the way (either Chinese version or the European version) did not make up, split in two at both ends of the Eurasian continent, "ball", has not contend with the possibility of the United States to dominate the Western Hemisphere.
They seem to never considered along the way there is a possibility ...... Westerner together to pull in. Of course, Europe can not do that, but China dare.
But in 2001, although the Chinese people has been revised through the new Eurasian continental bridge, along the way but still very far from the dream. For the Americans, the Europeans pressed the dead delusions of Eurasia core area of some of the more urgent.
So the Yankees drinking cola chewing gum stepped into the "imperial cemetery."
Well, the Chinese how to do?
This time "as long as I can make money control him Hongshuitaotian school" gave a meter: either we agree with China's accession to WTO, right?
They say: As long as China's economic development, and will be able to a large number of (zi) middle class, then they will push China and China (fen) main (lie) of the then China can join the family of world capitalism. Of course, the most important thing is that we can earn a lot of small Money, oh.
Truth? Do not be silly, that was to say to the people to hear. In fact, the United States (as long as I can make money to control him Hongshuitaotian school) geopolitics have this to say: China's accession to WTO, export-oriented coastal areas through accelerated economic development, thus exacerbating the uneven development between coastal and inland areas , create conflicts between coastal and inland, eventually leading to split China.
Uh, do not throw glasses, the first time I heard this guy meters theory I can not accept. Coastal and inland division? Ah you have not studied Chinese history it? From a historical perspective, separatism in China's coastal areas is not a very promising thing, Ah you know how all the previous Guangzhou Uprising gives a crush?
After the gang but later found ...... goods actually really think so ...... especially when I saw Stratfor founder George Friedman • The celebrated "China's geopolitics," I realized that help in the study of Chinese goods geopolitical issues had no serious study of Chinese history. They actually really put China's modern history as a struggle along the coast and inland, then leader Mao Ze Dong 2 Mainland China defeated Chinese leader Chiang Kai-shek's coast, Mao Ze Dong 2 of seclusion is afraid coastal and foreign collusion, Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up is to take 2 communist partisan loyalty do gambling, unity and Han Chinese areas are extremely vulnerable at any time may collapse ......
What Fuck！
Okay, I can only say that God really stick too much geopolitical boundaries.
All in all, these elite American opinion, so that China's accession to WTO will not only allow We (I) a lot of money, more damage to China's unity and threaten China's stability, and eventually to China's largest division and the enemy disappeared, perfect, perfect !
So, if China does not have to split it?
American geo-strategists believe that it is not a big problem. For example, Brzezinski in his book famous "Grand Chessboard" (1997), believes that China "is not global but regional countries." He refuted the idea that "in time twenty years or so, China will become a global power, its strength is about the United States and Europe (European assuming that both deepen and expand) the same 'forecast that it was" mechanically rely on statistics as a forecast, "and reminded everyone," even if China's GDP tripled, in terms of per capita income, China still ranked position in countries around the world in less. "
Thus, Brzezinski concludes that: "By 2020, even under the best of circumstances, China is also unlikely to be truly competitive in terms of major global powers."
After the year 2000, in which the US elite seems that the 21st century is China's century, this argument can not say that does not make sense, but that is long after things. What now, Japan and Europe is the main rival of the United States. For example, among Weinberg book, "Second Pacific War", once again militarization of Japan would easily beat the Chinese, the United States finally end and only then press the book back. Brzezinski also believes that China is the regional countries, Japan is the international country. Since the United States can press the Japanese dead, dead Chinese press that naturally every minute of things friends ~ ~
SO, I said so much, we have no opinion, right? Small Money, I'm coming ~~~~~~~
2001 November 11, uh, super Singles, China signed the WTO agreement, officially joined the WTO.
January 11, 2011, another super Singles, 2001 first flight.
Speaking with Chinese Singles quite predestined.
Upon accession, the amount of palmistry celebrate the American media, Chinese media somber. Americans say unlimited labor markets and open toward us, the Chinese say, the WTO is an opportunity and a challenge.
China to join the WTO paid a heavy price, even at that time some scholars say, the WTO ten years before more harm than good, after ten years before we talk about more good than harm.
At that time, no one thought the Internet economy can bring such great changes in the world economy, just as no one would have predicted that by 2008 the economic crisis broke out.
In this backdrop, China's economic boom after plunging in the WTO, and even then not too impressive. And along the way, 2025 and even 2035, are nothing but yielded thing.
Standing in 2018, look back 20 years ago, American geopolitics who all sorts of discussion of China's, could not help but sigh:
Obstacle is not weak to survive, arrogance is.
In the final analysis, all this is capitalism with a urinary consistent dictates. Expansion is the nature of capital; capital will inevitably flow to price depression; profit for the capitalists can sell the rope to hang themselves; the proletariat no country is because capital have no country; capitalism will never be able to solve the unbalanced nature of their own; economic crisis early morning and evening teach capitalist party man ...... when we abandon these had been discussed historical realities encountered the first 20 years of the 21st century, still it is so enlightening.
All of these principles, the Shun Chang, against the will perish as the wheel of history rolls on, not to the individual will. American geopolitics who really did not see that 20 years after China Cheng Kung University Why? On the contrary, in the late 20th century by no means few blows. British philosopher of history Arnold Toynbee in 1972 predicted that the 21st century will be the Chinese century. Like Irving Kravis and Robert Sams such economists from the 1980s began to forecast the possibility of China becoming an economic power, even when it has been predicted that by 2020 China will be the second largest economy in the world. By the mid-1990s that the Chinese economy will be in 2020 or 2025 exceeded US economists have quite a lot, and some radicals even think in 2010 the Chinese economy will be able to surpass the United States. Of course, these are not necessarily scholars with GDP (in fact, GDP itself is not a unified standard), with some purchasing power parity (the Chinese have long exceeded the United States), total social retail sales with some of (the high probability this year China surpassed the United States ). These scholars have included such heavyweights when he was big bankers World Bank President James Wolfensohn, also CIA official reports and OECD. But obviously quite clear when the capitalists should be allowed to speak in blow, when suddenly the war should be allowed to speak bureau. This is also the objective laws of capitalist development, day the earth, (I) the maximum money.
Today, the story of the late 1990s and again staged a trade war guns rampant. But this is not the era of the real crisis lies. The $ 20 trillion US national debt 1,000 trillion yen of Japanese government bonds, 2 trillion euros of French government bonds, 2 trillion euros of German government bonds ...... global capitalist economy has been totally dependent on constantly pushing the national debt to maintain the , the Japanese have shouted "We need magic" in order to save the Japanese economy. Another twenty years, maybe we will feel a trade war just a small thing, the real question is:
Who next Hitler?
I hope my prediction is wrong, my son was 1 year old, I do not want him to be conscription.