In 2023, the key word in the field of autonomous driving is still: commercialization.
This year, concepts such as unmanned taxis, unmanned delivery vehicles, unmanned sanitation vehicles, and unmanned trucks are still very popular, especially unmanned trucks (self-driving trucks). Because the scenarios are relatively closed and simple, they are regarded as autonomous driving by capital. As a shortcut to the implementation of technology, many companies have entered the field of self-driving trucks, and the market size has grown accordingly.
According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, China's autonomous heavy-duty truck market is expected to reach 100,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 50%, accounting for 11% of the entire heavy-duty truck market. Among them, L3 self-driving heavy trucks will dominate, accounting for about 80%; L4 self-driving heavy trucks will gradually expand their market share, accounting for about 20%; L5 self-driving heavy trucks are still in the experimental stage, and the market size is small. .
However, judging from the current market situation, self-driving trucks are not an easy shortcut.
It was thought that with the continuous improvement of autonomous driving technology, truck manufacturers and technology companies have significantly improved the technological maturity of autonomous trucks, and the commercialization process of autonomous truck manufacturers will also accelerate. Unexpectedly, in 2023, the self-driving truck industry will experience a major ebb.
The ebb tide comes fiercely, and the collective enters the trough period
It is hard to imagine that the self-driving truck industry, which was still heavily financing and expanding two years ago, has ebbed so violently. This year's losses, layoffs, bankruptcies, and project delays have become "hot words" on the global self-driving truck track. The entire industry is stuck in the quagmire of development. It is not only new entrepreneurial stars that are crumbling, but also leading veteran players.
Abroad, self-driving trucking star company Embark officially announced its closure. The company's founder sent an email to the entire company saying: "Capital has abandoned us and we are unable to raise funds. We are very sorry..."; Google's parent company Alphabet Its subsidiary Waymo announced that it would suspend the development of the self-driving truck project Via; the self-driving company TuSimple received a delisting notice from Nasdaq, and news of layoffs and closure of U.S. operations continued to spread.
Domestically, Alibaba Damo Academy has made major adjustments to its autonomous driving business, transferring the autonomous driving business from DAMO Academy to Cainiao, and cutting off the L4 unmanned truck project. Moreover, the main responsible persons for autonomous driving have left one after another; Startup Rising Star Auto The truck driving company Qingtian Smart Card has laid off all its employees and has entered the liquidation process.
In fact, there are early signs of a cold winter for the self-driving truck industry. In 2022, the scale of financing in the self-driving field will begin to decline off a cliff.
According to online public data, 128 investment events related to autonomous driving occurred in 2022, with a cumulative disclosed financing amount of nearly 20 billion yuan. Compared with a total of 144 investment and financing events in the domestic autonomous driving industry in 2021, with a financing scale of 93.2 billion yuan, the financing scale in 2022 has shrunk by nearly one-fifth.
You must know that the research and development costs of self-driving trucks are high and the cycle is long. It is difficult to give investors greater returns in a short period of time. Therefore, self-driving manufacturers are highly dependent on financing or capital injections from parent companies. Therefore, after losing external investment, there is a shortage of funds, resulting in layoffs, resignations, and bankruptcy. It is reported that Baidu’s intelligent driving business group has revealed that its annual R&D investment exceeds 10 billion, and its R&D expenditure in 2021 will exceed 20 billion. The R&D investment of other autonomous driving manufacturers is even worse.
There is no doubt that as the capital boom fades and the industry enters a cold winter, autonomous driving manufacturers collectively enter a trough period. Some have given up, while others are forging ahead.
Pony.ai “keep up the good work”
Among the peers that were unable to raise funds and went bankrupt due to lack of money, self-driving travel service company Pony.ai was the lucky one to successfully raise funds. Therefore, it has the capital to continue to develop self-driving technology, enhance its core competitiveness, and expand its market share.
In October, Pony.ai officially announced that it had received a US$100 million investment from the New Future City (NEOM) of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its investment fund NIF (NEOM Investment Fund). The two parties will cooperate on autonomous driving technology locally. Pony.ai plans to use the funds for global R&D and operational investment in autonomous driving technology.
Although it is not certain whether this financing can promote Pony.ai to take off, it is undoubtedly an important move for Pony.ai's survival.
Because at the end of 2022, there was news that the leading autonomous driving company Pony.ai had laid off employees and halved the number of employees. In response, Pony.ai responded that the news that Pony.ai would lay off 50% of its employees or halve its number of employees was untrue and was a normal flow of personnel. On the Internet, "business structure adjustment" and "personnel optimization" are all considered to be the official excuses for layoffs. It is self-evident that Pony.ai is short of money.
So, where has Pony.ai, which has received multiple rounds of financing and has a market valuation of US$8.5 billion, spent its money? One is spent on the Robotaxi (self-driving taxi) business, and the other is spent on the self-driving commercial vehicle business, as well as other businesses.
In terms of self-driving taxis, Pony.ai has continuously improved the safety, reliability and performance of passenger self-driving taxis by investing a large amount of funds in research and development and improvement of self-driving technology, intelligent transportation systems and related software and hardware equipment. Improve the core competitiveness of enterprises.
It is understood that Pony.ai’s unmanned test mileage has exceeded 1.2 million kilometers, of which the entire vehicle’s unmanned mileage has reached 200,000 kilometers. In addition, we have also launched self-driving travel services in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and have currently served more than 60,000 users.
In terms of self-driving trucks, based on the accumulation of technology in passenger cars and other fields, Pony.ai has optimized and adapted the existing self-driving systems, developed self-driving truck solutions, and launched self-driving truck trunk lines in many places in the country. Exploring logistics and dedicated line logistics and freight, accelerating and improving the layout of autonomous driving long-distance freight.
Specifically, Pony.ai established a joint venture with Sinotrans and Sany Heavy Truck to build a complete self-driving truck ecological chain through in-depth cooperation with vehicle manufacturers and logistics service providers, accelerating the commercialization of self-driving truck technology. process. According to official data, so far, Pony.ai’s self-driving trucks have a test mileage of more than 3 million kilometers, a commercial operation mileage of more than 610,000 kilometers, and a total cargo weight of nearly 40,000 tons.
It is worth mentioning that Pony.ai’s self-driving truck fleet is in the “1+N” form, that is, one self-driving truck leads multiple L4 self-driving trucks. This "1+N" formation autonomous driving form has obvious advantages in terms of safety, collaboration, fleet operation efficiency and scalability, which can greatly reduce operating costs and improve transportation efficiency.
Although Pony.ai’s self-driving trucks have a certain first-mover advantage, they still face challenges in technology, regulations, safety, user acceptance, etc. Only by overcoming these challenges can the full commercial application of self-driving trucks be realized.
Didi autonomous driving "faces difficulties"
As the "army" of self-driving trucks is busy retreating, Didi chose to face the difficulties.
On October 17, Didi’s self-driving freight forwarder KargoBot (KargoBot) was revealed to be operating independently. Related personnel changes include Wei Junqing, Didi’s head of self-driving innovation business, being transferred to CEO of KargoBot (KargoBot), and Didi’s self-driving COO Meng Xing will concurrently serve as the chairman of KargoBot (KargoBot), and Huang Zhou, the former head of corporate development of Didi Autonomous Driving, will be appointed as the CFO of KargoBot (KargoBot).
In addition to the official declaration of independence, KargoBot also received over 450 million yuan in investment from the Ordos Group and other institutions. A few days ago, Didi Autonomous Driving just received from GAC Capital, a wholly-owned subsidiary of GAC Group, and Guangzhou Development Zone Investment Group to jointly invest in the establishment of a special fund of US$149 million (approximately RMB 1.088 billion) in equal proportions.
KargoBot has transformed from an innovative business to an independent operation, reusing relevant team members, and frequently receiving capital investment, demonstrating Didi's determination and strength to enter self-driving trucks. From being conservative and low-key to being radical and aggressive, Didi’s autonomous driving business layout has undergone such a big change because of new developments in the business.
It is understood that KargoBot has more than 100 self-driving trucks and has carried out regular testing and operations in North and Northwest China. As of March this year, more than 1.2 million tons of coal and other bulk commodities have been transported, and the fleet is expected to exceed 200 vehicles by the end of this year.
There’s also good news on road test eligibility. Following the early 2022, after the rear-mounted model obtained the Beijing Intelligent Connected Road Test License, KargoBot's front-mounted mass-produced L4 truck received a road test notice for self-driving trucks in the Beijing Intelligent Connected Vehicle Policy Pilot Zone and was approved to open roads in Beijing. Public road testing will be carried out within the period.
Although there are some small achievements, the scale and commercialization of self-driving trucks will not be achieved overnight, and Kargobot has a long way to go.
First, KargoBot faces fierce market competition. Players such as JD Logistics and Pony.ai have certain advantages in technology, capital and resources. KargoBot needs to continue to innovate and improve its competitiveness.
Secondly, KargoBot faces severe challenges in autonomous driving technology. Although Didi has developed a hybrid unmanned solution HDS based on its autonomous driving cloud platform and technical middle-end capabilities, the safety of the technology is still being verified, and L4 autonomous driving Technology implementation is a common problem for all autonomous driving manufacturers.
It is difficult to fully implement L4 level autonomous driving technology, which is why KargoBot plans to adopt a hybrid intelligent mode, with a driver driving a pilot vehicle with L2 assisted driving functions to lead multiple L4 level autonomous trucks (unmanned).
Thirdly, it is not easy for KargoBot to achieve large-scale mass production and commercialization in a short period of time. Issues in autonomous driving regulations, safety, and user acceptance have not yet been properly resolved. L4-level autonomous driving with higher autonomous driving capabilities is still a long way from commercial mass production.
In a nutshell: massive capital investment, long-term testing time, and imperfect laws and regulations are major barriers to the future development of self-driving truck manufacturers.
The road to “self-production of blood” is long
As we all know, the trucking industry is facing problems such as driver shortages, low transportation efficiency, and frequent traffic accidents. The ideal self-driving truck can effectively solve these industry problems. Therefore, people are very much looking forward to the mass production of self-driving trucks. Manufacturers provide commercialization opportunities.
According to incomplete statistics, in the Robotruck industry, most companies plan to achieve large-scale implementation of L4 autonomous driving by 2024/2025.
Unfortunately, "ideals are full of reality." There are still some difficulties in achieving true commercialization in the self-driving truck industry. In addition to the commonplace issues of technology maturity, security and regulations, cost and investment, the future will also extend to the collection, storage and use of personal information and traffic data, such as data privacy and security issues, which need to be addressed one by one. solve.
Therefore, until autonomous driving manufacturers do not have the ability to make their own blood, how to withstand financial pressure will become the top priority for autonomous driving companies.
First, "replenish blood". While substantial breakthroughs have been made in the scale and commercialization of autonomous driving fleets, related R&D and operating costs will increase accordingly, and it is inevitable for companies to burn money. In this regard, some companies raise funds through the securities market, while companies without IPOs are maintained through investments from investors.
However, the economic environment is not optimistic, financing is becoming more and more difficult, and self-driving technology companies that are short of funds will accelerate their exit from the market. Moreover, relying on financing to "replenish blood" is not a long-term solution. Realizing self-generation is.
After "blood-making", the current self-driving technology has made certain progress in the automotive industry, which provides a certain technical foundation for the commercialization of self-driving trucks. Pony.ai’s “1+N form” and Didi’s KargoBot’s hybrid intelligent model are the first stage of commercialization. In the future, as technology, regulations, and business environment mature, fully driverless driving will come. These industry “pioneers” It will also truly realize self-hematopoiesis and achieve substantial growth.
All in all, the current self-driving truck manufacturers are "stuck" in "money". Only by first overcoming financial difficulties, and then overcoming technical challenges and operational difficulties, can self-driving truck manufacturers better realize commercialization and achieve "money begets money" . In other words, the future winners must be the "powerful ones" with strong financial strength and profound technical background.