On the basis of establishing the prediction model in the second question, how to design the regional dual-carbon path mentioned in the third question to guide macro policies!
The STIRPA basic model is used to predict China's carbon peak time, and the logarithm of both sides of the model formula is obtained:
Among them: P is the population, A is the total GDP, and T is the technology, which is the carbon emission intensity (corresponding to the energy carbon emission factors of each industry in the competition questions). Then the GLS method is used to estimate the model, and the parameters are as follows:
Comparing the effects of the coefficients of various variables in the model equation on emissions, we came to the conclusion that the carbon emission intensity has the greatest impact, followed by population, and then total GDP.
Then, based on the current domestic fertility rate, the population factors are designed: Since China's population will fluctuate less in the future, its change rate can be designed to remain stable. Therefore, the variables that mainly affect carbon emissions are carbon emission intensity and total GDP.
Assuming that variables such as population, GDP per capita, and energy intensity maintain their current development trends from 2020 to 2030, the average annual growth rate is the average annual growth rate from 2010 to 2020. To achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions in 2050, certain growth rates of variables such as population, per capita GDP, and energy intensity need to be controlled. The author sets four emission reduction scenarios to show the at least growth rate that each variable must be controlled to achieve a peak in carbon emissions in 2050: (as follows)
The emission reduction plan 1 requires an average annual population decline of 4.5%, which is obviously impossible to achieve; the emission reduction plan 2 requires the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP to fall below
3.1%, which is difficult to tolerate for China in the process of industrialization. a lower development speed; the emission reduction option 3 requires an average annual decrease in carbon emission intensity of 9.1%, which is also difficult. The main solution is to increase energy conservation and emission reduction and the speed of new energy development and utilization, but this requires Huge transformation costs are incurred. In view of the difficulty in controlling the population growth rate, the author extends the fourth emission reduction plan, which is to control the per capita GDP growth rate and carbon emission intensity at the same time. The plan shows that the average annual growth rate of GDP per capita needs to be controlled to within 5.1%, and the carbon emission intensity needs to decrease by at least 6% annually.
Compared with the first three options, this option has a certain degree of implementability and has a relatively small impact on national economic growth. It also shows the inverse relationship between the per capita GDP growth rate and the reduction rate of carbon emission intensity: to achieve within 2050 To reach the goal of peaking, there needs to be a trade-off between per capita GDP and carbon emission intensity. If you want to ensure a higher growth rate, you must be accompanied by a higher rate of carbon emissions decline, and if you want to withstand a smaller downward pressure on carbon emissions, you must bear the burden. losses from lower economic growth rates.
Forecast of China’s carbon peak path
In order to estimate CO2 emissions from 2009 to 2050, we first assume three socio-economic development scenarios in the future, namely low, medium and high models. The low development model assumes that variables such as population and per capita GDP grow at a relatively low rate; the medium development model assumes that each variable changes at a moderate rate; and the high development model assumes that all variables grow at a relatively high rate. In addition, based on these three options, the high-medium mode, high-low
mode, low-medium mode, mid-high mode and mid-low mode are extended and set (the original number of extended modes was 6, and 1 mode with unrealistic results was removed). The high-medium model assumes that the population and per capita GDP grow at a high speed, while the carbon emission intensity grows at a moderate rate; the high and low model assumes that the population and per capita GDP grow at a high speed, while the carbon emission intensity grows at a low rate; the low and medium model assumes that the population and per capita GDP grow at a low rate, while the carbon emission intensity
Emission intensity grows moderately; the medium-high model assumes that population and per capita GDP grow at a medium speed, while carbon emissions grow at a high speed; the medium-low model assumes that population and per capita GDP grow at a medium speed, while carbon emission intensity grows at a low speed.
The changing speed of each variable in the scenario model is based on the first setting of the medium mode. The growth rate of each variable in the low mode is slightly lower than that of the medium mode, while the growth rate of each variable in the high mode is slightly higher than that of the medium mode. The basic judgment in setting the population growth rate is that the population growth rate will further decrease with economic development. The setting of the medium model refers to the United Nations (2009) prediction of China's future population. China's population will peak in the 21st century 30s, and the population will gradually begin to experience negative growth after entering the 21st century 40s. The low model assumes that the population will peak in the 2020s. , entering a negative growth stage after the 2030s; the high model assumes that the population will not experience negative growth in 2050, and the population growth rate will gradually decline over time. The basic judgment for setting the per capita GDP growth rate is still that as the economy develops, the per capita GDP growth rate will gradually decrease. The per capita GDP growth rate under the medium model refers to Xu Xianchun's (2002) prediction of China's future per capita GDP. By 2050, the per capita GDP will be 10 times the per capita GDP in 2008 (about 30,000 US dollars), reaching the current level of moderately developed countries; the low model assumes that in 2050 The annual per capita GDP is 6 times that of 2008 (about 18,000 US dollars), reaching the current level of emerging industrial countries; the high model assumes that the per capita GDP in 2050 is 16 times that of 2008 (about 48,000 US dollars), close to the current level of highly developed countries. The basic judgment for setting the growth rate of carbon emission intensity is that the difficulty of carbon emission reduction will gradually increase over time, that is, the rate of decline in carbon emissions will gradually decrease. The medium model assumes that China’s carbon emission intensity will drop by 80% by 2050 compared with 2005; the low model assumes that by 2050, China’s carbon emission intensity will drop by 70% compared with 2005; the high model assumes that by 2050, China’s carbon emission intensity will drop by 90% compared with 2005. %.
Using Matlab simulation, the simulation method is to select several integer node values and use cubic function interpolation to fit a relatively smooth carbon emission curve, and thereby calculate the peak occurrence time and peak amount.
Comparing the carbon emission estimates under eight models, it can be found that China's carbon emissions peak will occur under five scenario models: low, medium, high, low-medium, and medium-high. The impact of technology on the peak is more important. If the economic and social development rate is high and the carbon emission intensity decreases at a relatively low rate, the peak cannot occur in 2050 (such as high-medium, high-low, medium-low models). Similarly, if the reduction rate of carbon emission intensity is faster than the speed of economic and social development, it will push emissions to peak earlier (such as low-medium, medium-high mode). It can be predicted that according to the current development trend, if the economic and social development is accompanied by a reasonable reduction in carbon emission intensity, China's peak arrival time should be between 2020 and 2045. And if economic and social development does not pay attention to the reduction of carbon emission intensity, it will cause the peak time to be delayed. Therefore, maintaining the continuous decline of carbon emission intensity is crucial for my country to reach the peak of carbon emissions as soon as possible. Increasing the use of clean energy and reducing traditional energy consumption should become key tasks in the future.
Reference for other problem-solving ideas for question D
2023
Huawei Cup Mathematical Modeling Question D Question 3 - Carbon Emission Path Optimization (Detailed process of constructing a multi-objective optimization model for energy consumption structure adjustment + model assumptions (replicable))_Zhixin_ROL's Blog - CSDN Blog
2023 Huawei Cup Mathematical Modeling Question D - Analysis of the current situation of domain carbon emissions and economy, population, and energy consumption (how to establish indicators and indicator systems 1, detailed modeling process of carbon emission influencing factors)_Zhixin_ ROL's Blog-CSDN Blog