Summary
[ Longsheng Securities: The resonance of the three turning points is optimistic about the new round of smart driving market] The research report of Changsheng Securities pointed out that the global resonance, the domestic smart driving market is ushering in three turning points: 1) Technically, "BEV + Transformer + data closed loop" new The structure will start to be put on the car in 2023, making it possible to navigate the city without relying on high-definition maps; 2) In terms of commercialization, we expect that the urban navigation functions of various car companies will be implemented intensively starting from 23Q4, and some will no longer rely on high-precision maps. FSD’s commercialization in North America and its entry into China are also expected to speed up; 3) In terms of policies, L3 policies have been implemented intensively in the near future, and the follow-up is expected to continue to heat up. It is estimated that the above three inflection points are expected to be realized continuously from September to the beginning of next year, leading a new round of market intelligence control.
Changsheng Securities pointed out that the global resonance, the domestic smart driving market is ushering in three major turning points: 1) Technically, the new architecture of "BEV+ Transformer+ data closed loop" will start to be launched in 2023, making it possible to navigate urban areas without relying on high-precision maps; 2) In terms of commercialization, we expect that the urban navigation functions of various car companies will be implemented intensively starting from 23Q4, and some will no longer rely on high-precision maps. The commercialization of FSD in North America and its entry into China are also expected to accelerate; Policies have been implemented intensively, and the trend is expected to continue to heat up. It is estimated that the above three inflection points are expected to be realized continuously from September to the beginning of next year, leading a new round of market intelligence control.
The full text is as follows
Industrial strategy｜Three inflection points resonate, optimistic about the new round of smart driving
The global resonance, the domestic smart driving market is ushering in three major turning points: 1) In terms of technology, the new architecture of "BEV+ Transformer+ data closed loop" will be launched in 2023, making it possible to navigate urban areas without relying on high-precision maps; 2) Commercialization , we predict that the urban navigation functions of various car companies will be intensively implemented starting from 23Q4, and some will no longer rely on high-precision maps. It is expected to continue to heat up. It is estimated that the above three inflection points are expected to be realized continuously from September to the beginning of next year, leading a new round of market intelligence control.
▍Technical inflection point: The new architecture of "BEV+Transformer+data closed loop" will start to be put on the car in 2023, and it will become possible to navigate the "no map" city.
Under the leadership of Tesla , the algorithm paradigm and technical route of this round of intelligent driving competition have temporarily converged, and all manufacturers have adopted "BEV+Transformer+data closed loop" as the core architecture of the latest generation mass production system. Domestic leading manufacturers will generally start to put BEVs on the market in 2023, and the data closed-loop architecture has been basically established. Although there is still a gap between Tesla and Tesla , high-end smart driving that does not rely on high-precision maps has begun to become possible in urban scenes. In addition, Tesla's 2023 AI DAY will be held at the end of September. We expect that the end-to-end and World Model are expected to be highlights, interpreting the true "autonomous driving model" and opening a new chapter.
▍Commercial inflection point: Urban pilots have been implemented continuously, and the commercialization of FSD is expected to accelerate.
Domestic: We estimate that, led by Xpeng and Huawei, the urban navigation function of China's pre-installed smart driving market will be implemented intensively from 23Q4, including Ideal, NIO, Zhiji, Jiyue, Denza, GAC Haopin, etc. According to the company's announcement , the "no picture" version of some manufacturers will also be on the car within this year, and the generalization ability has been greatly enhanced. According to their official WeChat public accounts, by the end of August, Xpeng and Huawei's urban navigation functions (which require high-precision maps) have been launched in 5 and 6 cities respectively. Both companies have stated that they will launch them before the end of the year without relying on high-precision maps. version, and aims to open 50 and 45 cities by the end of the year. As the "L4 interpretation" of passenger cars, Urban Navigation represents the "technical commanding heights" of passenger car autonomous driving. The car companies that are the first to implement this function are expected to greatly enhance consumers' experience and understanding of car intelligence, thus forming a real Skills moat and brand premium.
Overseas: According to Jiemian News citing Musk’s Twitter, Tesla FSD V12 will be removed from Beta and released as an official version. We think it is more likely that the time point will be at the end of this year or early next year. After the official release of the V12, Tesla may have more promotional actions to increase the selection rate of FSD in North America, and the global rollout is also expected to accelerate. In fact, FSD has been making continuous moves to enter China recently. According to 36 Krypton’s report on August 15, Tesla plans to form a local operation team of about 20 people in China to promote the landing of FSD in Chinese shopping malls. We believe that FSD is likely to enter China in the next year, and Shanghai and other cities may be used as pilots. After the actual implementation, it is expected to greatly enhance consumer awareness and promote the penetration of domestic high-end smart driving.
▍Policy inflection point: L3 policies are implemented intensively and are expected to continue to heat up.
In June, the Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology made it clear that it would launch pilot projects for the access and on-road traffic of intelligent connected cars, and support the commercial application of L3 and higher-level automatic driving functions ; Printed and issued, it is clear that before 2025, the system will form an intelligent networked vehicle standard system that can support the general functions of combined driving assistance and automatic driving. Looking forward to the follow-up this year, we expect more policies to be introduced. For example, in November last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Public Security solicited opinions from the public on the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Program of Intelligent Connected Car Access and Passage on the Road (Draft for Comment)". We judge that the pilot program may be officially implemented within this year. , will further demonstrate the national policy’s emphasis and determination on the intelligent driving industry and clear obstacles for the subsequent development of the industry.
▍Risk factors:
The penetration rate of high-end automatic driving is lower than expected; serious safety accidents occur in automatic driving; sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; domestic intelligent driving policy support is lower than expected, etc.
▍Investment proposition:
The global resonance, the domestic smart driving market is ushering in three major turning points of technology, commercialization and policy, which are expected to be realized in succession from September to the beginning of next year, leading a new round of smart driving market.
On the one hand, car companies that are deeply involved in high-end smart driving functions, full-stack self-developed and use this as a differentiated selling point are the owners and distributors of the new cake. Currently, Huawei, Xiaopeng Motors, Weilai Motors and Lixiang Motors are at the forefront of the industry .
On the other hand, supply chains such as autonomous driving chips, domain control, sensors, wire-controlled chassis, and automotive Ethernet chips are expected to benefit from the increase in the penetration rate of high-end intelligent driving. It is recommended to pay attention to: 1) automatic driving chip manufacturers (highest barriers); 2 ) Lidar manufacturers (higher barriers); 3) 4D imaging radar manufacturers (from 0 to 1); 4) domain controllers (significant increase, but lower barriers); 5) domestic wire-control chassis suppliers (barriers 6) Automotive Ethernet chip suppliers (higher barriers, domestic substitution); 7) Data labeling suppliers (increased importance).