The qubit think tank is sent from Aofeisi
Qubit | Public Account QbitAI
The rapid development of AGI has made the realization of bionic robots complete the last important piece of the puzzle.
For a long time, bionic robots represent an ultimate human imagination of technology, and are highly praised by the industry circle.
Musk, Lei Jun, etc., have bet on this track. Tesla's full-size bionic robot Optimus and Xiaomi's full-size universal humanoid robot CyberOne satisfy people's primary imagination of humanoid robots.
Nowadays, the trend of large models and AGI needs to further expand this imagination.
Embodied intelligence has become a new hotspot in AI research. For example, Li Feifei's team has released the latest results.
Many robot teams have also started new attempts, hoping to solve the intelligence problem of bionic robots in one fell swoop through large models.
But it is undeniable that the current bionic robot technology is still in the stage of principle research, and there are still many difficulties to be overcome in order to realize the real landing of the product.
Here comes the problem -
What are the technical elements that bionic robots should pay attention to at this stage?
What stage of development is the bionic robot industry in?
In what areas can bionic robots assist or collaborate with humans?
For the vigorous development of the industry, which bionic robot institutions deserve our attention and help?
In the "China Biomimetic Robot Industry Panoramic Report" , the qubit think tank will conduct a comprehensive review of China's biomimetic robot industry from multiple angles and directions, including the status quo of China's biomimetic robot industry, industry changes, industry development and market size development trends, industrial chains and industrial competition patterns. Extensive research and in-depth analysis provide a comprehensive and three-dimensional picture of China's bionic robot industry.
The core points of the report include:
With the influx of giants and the resurgence of IPOs, the bionic robot industry is rising;
With mature supply and AI technology development, the bionic robot industry is ushering in profound changes;
The industry discriminative release, the bionic robot industry first looks at mass production, second at business, and third at new terminals;
Combining bionic robots with the needs of various industries, the market size will exceed trillions;
General bionic robots focus on four major scenarios;
The four major patterns have emerged, and the competition of start-up companies is booming.
The bionic robot industry is hot
Giant companies strategically enter the bionic robot industry
Tesla's "cross-border" research and development of bionic robots, Xiaopeng established a new company Xiaopeng Pengxing launched a smart robot horse, Xiaomi announced the full-size humanoid robot CyberOne at the press conference following the quadruped robot "Iron Egg", in June this year Tencent also released the latest video of the quadruped robot MAX developed by its robotics studio Robotics X.
The keen interest in the bionic robotics industry from “big” companies is a testament to its value.
Leading companies in the industry are gradually entering the IPO stage
In January this year, UBTECH Co., Ltd., a leading company in the industry, went to Hong Kong to submit an IPO application . This IPO application is more for the purpose of financing, but the successful listing is of great significance to the bionic robot industry. At the same time, many companies in the vertical field of bionic robots are expected to become independent companies. horned beast.
The industry is rising, and venture capital is getting hotter
Up to now, more than 60% of the bionic robot companies have received RMB 100 million investment , and the number of start-up companies accounts for more than half of the industry, and the industry is on the rise.
Reasons for industry change
supply chain maturity
According to interviews with practitioners by Qubit Think Tank, most of the parts in the bionic robot industry can already be replaced by localization .
There is still a small amount of outsourcing of upstream parts and components. The main considerations are technical barriers and the temporary instability of domestic supply.
The mature industry chain of industrial robot parts, related technologies, machines, and factories all have the possibility of direct transplantation.
Technological development
The development of AI technology creates new demands, and the landing platform of general artificial intelligence is likely to focus on robots.
At present, domestic manufacturers have conquered harmonic reducer, hydraulic pressure, voltage actuator and other component technologies, and a series of domestic enterprises have emerged.
Institutions with strong technical capabilities will also develop a large number of motors and actuators that adapt to their own products, and continue to promote the development of industry exchanges.
Software technologies such as machine vision technology are constantly innovating. At the same time, we are also concerned that the invention of many new materials will benefit the bionic robot industry:
For example , "bionic electronic skin" can sense actions and the environment, and at the same time make the appearance, expression and actions of robots more like humans.
Or "flexible structures ," as opposed to rigid structures, could make the robot's joints soft.
business model
From the perspective of business models, more players choose to develop full-size general-purpose humanoid robots. New bionic robot products continue to expand the applicable scenarios. At the same time, influenced by large models such as GPT, bionic robots will To B to To C.
The bionic robot industry is in a growth stage
Qubit Think Tank believes that the bionic robot industry will be in its infancy before 2021. The launch of Spot, Atlas, ASIMO and other bionic robot prototypes will affect many domestic universities and technology companies to join in the research.
China has begun to develop quadruped robot prototypes, and a few companies and research teams have begun to manufacture bionic robots.
At this stage, the scientific research significance of bionic robots is greater than the practical significance, and many products still have many defects when they are launched.
From 2021 to 2030, the industry will enter a growth period, and high-profile concept humanoid robot products will appear .
The financing scale of enterprises in the industry has increased, and more domestic universities and large technology companies have joined.
The popularity of large models and AGI makes the manufactured bionic robot products more intelligent.
In the end, we predict that the bionic robot industry will enter a mature stage around 2030. The products can complete industrial and industrial-level applications, and can be used in non-structural scenarios such as homes, and further expand new tracks and needs.
Industry development focuses on three major discriminants
Discriminant formula 1: Large-scale manufacturing, can the main product be mass-produced?
Quadruped robots have entered the era of mass production before bionic robots, and domestic quadruped robot companies have competitive products that can be mass-produced.
In the next step, humanoid robots and other bionic robots will also usher in a period of mass production explosion, which will be the basic standard for judging bionic robot products.
Discriminant 2: Potential market size? Is the business application enterprise-grade or consumer-grade?
The bionic robot market will be a fertile ground, and the creation of consumer-level applications can provide more market space for growth.
Qubit think tank believes that to judge the development of bionic robot companies, we should continue to pay attention to the potential market.
Discriminant formula 3: whether to build bionic robot products into new platforms and new terminals?
From telephones to PCs to mobile phones, personal terminals continue to develop. Now bionic robots are considered to be the next generation of terminals after mobile phones. Some scholars believe that the emergence of "embodied intelligence" is the next "iPhone era".
Industrial Chain Research
Based on the understanding of the market, the qubit think tank divides bionic robots into three parts: upstream supply chain, midstream robot integration and downstream application. At present, many enterprises have launched "linkage" with bionic robots.
For different links in the industrial chain, the qubit think tank has summarized the following characteristics:
upstream
Localized replacement of components and mature outsourcing channels.
The influx of companies will increase and the price will stabilize.
Form customized production for different robot companies.
middle reaches
Product form will change.
General-purpose bionic robots will become more popular, and 2B will expand to 2C.
downstream
Bionic robots can expand more tracks, and downstream companies have also split into more types.
Affected by large models, bionic robots will expand to the C-end, and the service industry will be the industry with the largest increase in the number of downstream companies.
Bionic robot landing scene
Qubit Think Tank summarizes the landing scenarios of the main products of bionic robot players in my country. At present, except for companies that are still in the research and development stage, most of the products in the industry are landing in family companionship, service and high-risk environments.
Biomimetic robots in different environments have tasks of accompanying, assisting and replacing humans.
△ For specific bionic robot products and their counterparts, see "China's Biomimetic Robot Industry Panoramic Report"
Enterprise Competitive Landscape
Affected by factors such as mass production, commercial difficulty, and development prospects, the bionic robot industry must be an industry with high manufacturing difficulty and high capital demand. Based on the above reasons, the qubit think tank analyzes the current players and status quo in the industry from two aspects of mass production and capital capacity.
The first quadrant: star enterprises with strong capital support
There are two situations inside the quadrant:
(1) Enterprises with leading technology and mass production capacity, thus receiving capital support. Such as UBTECH, Yunshen, Dada Technology and Yushu Technology;
(2) Enterprises that have strong financial strength and see opportunities for industry development to set up laboratories to study bionic robots. Such as Tencent (Robotics X Lab), Xiaomi (Xiaomi Robotics Lab) and DJI. Such enterprises can develop prototypes regardless of cost without the pressure of mass production, and promote the development of industry technology.
Quadrant II: Small companies with potential and technology
New start-up companies that have mass-produced bionic robot products usually have a college background and their products focus on a certain field. The four-legged robot products of Haqi Robot and Weilan Technology, and the robot cat first developed by Elephant Robot have all started from the perspective of robot pets. Since Boston Dynamics released Spot, robot pets have become a trendy demand with social significance; excellent The quadruped robot developed by Baote, Yunshen Technology and Yushu Technology are all involved in the inspection of the track; Iron Man Technology focuses on cooperation in scientific research fields such as aerospace and military industry.
The R&D of enterprises in the second quadrant is not limited to a single field, and the clear and practical scenarios are more concerned by capital.
The third quadrant: companies favored by investment
There is currently only one "player" in this quadrant: Zhiyuan Robot. Significant investment has been made without the public release of any robot prototypes.
The focus on companies in this quadrant is mainly due to the high level of trust in their technical capabilities.
Quadrant 4: The industry is developing rapidly, expecting more start-up companies to emerge
The following are the top 20 bionic robot industry representative organizations worth paying attention to in my country:
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