The word metaverse appeared in science fiction 30 years ago, but starting from 2021, metaverse has suddenly become the hottest word in the world, everyone is talking about it, it seems that everything is related to metaverse for a while There is a relationship.
So what exactly is the metaverse? What is not a metaverse? Will the metaverse change our lives explosively like his sudden popularity, or will our lives gradually evolve into the digital world for a long time in the future? How will we imagine and look forward to what the metaverse will look like in the future?
We are very honored to invite Dr. Yuan Yu in this edition of the Red Bird Salon . He is a director-designate of the IEEE Supreme Board of Directors and the chairman-designate of the IEEE Standards Association. In other words, he will be the first Chinese member of the highest board of directors in the history of IEEE and the first chairman from outside the United States in the history of the IEEE Standards Association. We are also very honored to invite Mr. Zheng Xianglin as our guest of dialogue. He used to be the vice president of Tencent and is now a senior consultant of McKinsey. Today, under the leadership of Dr. Yuan, let us look forward to the Metaverse together .
Wonderful Review (Part 1)
Wonderful review (below)
01
guest sharing
| The panorama and prospect of the Metaverse
Before I start sharing, I have listed some part-time social jobs that I have held, and I want everyone to have a more comprehensive understanding of my background, or the work I have done in the past few years.
In the past few years, I have been serving as the chairman of the IEEE VR and AR Advisory Committee and the chairman of the VR and AR Standards Committee. In addition, I am also the vice chairman of the Optoelectronics Standards Committee and the secretary general of the Blockchain Standards Committee. . The reason why I introduce these backgrounds is because I will have some views later on that combine AR, VR, blockchain and web3. As far as the work I have been doing in the past so many years, I should still have some qualifications to express some views related to these. In addition, I also declare that the views I expressed today are my personal views, and are not necessarily consistent with the official views of IEEE or the standards association.
We are now in June, which happens to be the 30th anniversary of the invention of the word metaverse, because the book SNOW CRASH was published in June 1992, so why did the word suddenly become popular again after 30 years?
One of the current phenomena or chaos is that there are different opinions on the definition of the metaverse , and basically there is no unified definition yet. If it is classified simply and crudely, it is basically divided into a centralized faction and a decentralized faction .
If the division is a little more detailed, the metaverse can basically be divided into four factions . One is from XR , including AR, VR and 3D; the other is to do industrial Internet intelligent manufacturing and digital twins. These can be called The industrial metaverse or the industrial metaverse; the third is from artificial intelligence or motion capture animation. Their entry point is virtual humans. These three categories can be classified as centralized metaverses . Of course, some of them are involved in decentralization. . Then the fourth faction is from the blockchain industry. They may prefer to talk about web3 when talking about the Metaverse.
To talk about the definition of metaverse, let’s first look at its etymology. Coincidentally, Stephenson, the author of the book SNOW CRASH, sent a tweet on June 8. In this tweet, he specifically pointed out that in When he wrote that book, the metaverse was basically VR, which means virtual reality.
From the perspective of both etymology and advancing with the times, I wrote a definition for the Metaverse. First and foremost, the Metaverse is an experience. The universe itself contains the concepts of time and space, so the experience naturally has both space and time. What kind of experience is this? The outside world is perceived by users as the universe, which is the key to the existence of the Metaverse .
The outside world, perceived as the universe, is actually built on digital technology, so the metaverse has three forms. The first type is a different universe, which is different from our current universe, which is VRAR virtual reality ; the second type is the digital expansion of the current universe, and the digital expansion is to superimpose some numbers on the current universe This is augmented reality or mixed reality ; third, it is a digital copy or digital counterpart of our current universe, which is what we call a digital twin . The above are basically the three main types of metaverse .
Next, let's look at the characteristics of the metaverse. From the perspective of characteristics, I also divide it into three categories: Shall be , Should be , and Maybe be . Compared with VR, entering the metaverse must be persistent, and the user's creations in it can leave traces and creations, and only when the conditions of persistent existence are met can it be called the metaverse . The metaverse itself must be self-consistent , and self-consistent refers to physical self-consistency, because when we talk about the operation of a universe itself, it does not depend on external power. The laws of physics interact and operate, and Self-consistent must be realistic enough.
Then there is Accessible , which is relatively easy to access. If the experience of the metaverse can only be experienced while lying on the operating table, then it itself cannot be popularized, so we also hope that access to the metaverse is easy to access.
Pervasive means that it can be accessed anytime, anywhere, and the metaverse itself is ubiquitous. Finally, we say that the metaverse can be decentralized, but it is not necessary, because most of these functions or features of the metaverse can also be centralized, but decentralization will have some problems in some aspects. benefit. It is worth noting that we also have to distinguish between the internal and external characteristics of the metaverse, which is something worthy of further exploration.
To sum up, in a narrow sense, the metaverse is a sustainable virtual reality . In a broad sense, the metaverse is an advanced stage and long-term vision of digital transformation .
We also have a special question to think about, what is not the Metaverse? The concept of metaverse is currently used in many places on the same level as web3 and NFT, which is wrong. As we have said before, web3 and NFT are just one of them, and this kind of misuse will lead the entire industry chain astray, at least in my opinion.
First of all, NFT is not a metaverse, and it cannot even be regarded as a necessary element of the metaverse. Many NFTs we see now are like a simple and isolated model. It may have collection value, transaction value, and investment value, but it has no use value. So this is why there is a hot word in the NFT circle called empowerment. Why empowerment is needed, because it has no use value inherently. In order to make it sell reasonably, we must find a way to add use value to it. This is called empowerment. The mainstream demand of human beings for the Metaverse will never be collection and investment.
Second, Web3 is also often confused with the Metaverse. Web3 is not metaverse either, and its advocates mainly use ownership as a gimmick, because with web3, you can own a part of the Internet. This sounds revolutionary, but in fact, think about it carefully, ownership is really so important. Is it important? We might as well think about it. When the technology circle advocates the sharing economy, it says that ownership is not important. For example, sharing charging treasures, what matters is the right to use. Energy saving and emission reduction For the sake of environmental protection, you don't need to worry about whether you own a private car, you just need to enjoy travel services. Such voices are still echoing in my ears, but now when the web3 concept is launched to cut leeks, ownership becomes important again. This is very contradictory, and often the same group of people are doing such contradictory things. For users, what really matters is the use value , the service rather than the ownership.
Regarding the technical classification of the Metaverse, some reports on the market are still not rigorous enough. Metaverse-related technologies can be divided into core technologies and supporting technologies . There is no need to drag him into the technologies of the metaverse for supporting technologies, such as artificial intelligence and communication storage. We need to avoid treating the metaverse as a basket and put everything in it.
I have grouped the core technologies into two and a half categories. The first category is perception and interaction . The bottom-level sensors and actuators in perception and interaction may be virtual or real. The real may involve collecting data from our current universe or the physical world. Then the virtual In fact, it is to collect corresponding data from the virtual world, and then there are several types of interfaces, including brain-computer interfaces. The other is API, application programming interface, where the machine directly interacts with the sensor automation. The second category is the persistent virtual world . From the bottom level, the first is the engine, including the physics engine, image engine, and sound engine. One of the main problems to be solved is how to make the virtual world more realistic. The last half category is blockchain and digital assets .
We believe that there are at least two major challenges to realize the real metaverse . The first one is from the perspective of virtual perception and interaction. An example I like to give is the scene of drinking beer.
If you are in a fake virtual universe or metaverse, you can of course realize all the experiences in real life.
For example, go to drink beer with friends, but with our current technology roadmap and the way of helmets, even if you can accurately simulate the appearance, color, smell and smell of beer, you can’t simulate drinking beer Afterwards, the body produces dopamine to make your brain feel high and excited, which cannot be simulated. So what to do? We believe that its solution must be considered from the first-line principle, and it is hopeful to solve such problems from the perspective of brain-computer interface.
The second challenge is from the perspective of the virtual world, how to build a virtual world with large-scale finesse, persistent existence, and physical self-consistency.
For example, the water in the virtual world can be shimmering in many games now, but the shimmering is not enough. Can you row a boat on the water, can you jump in and swim? Can you hold up a basin of water to wash your face? If there are multiple people, can you play in the water and splash each other?
This involves that the simulation of water must be as fine as the particle level, or as fine as the water molecule level, so that such a simulation can make it conform to all physical laws, such as fluid dynamics, which is the ultimate or true realization. A necessary path in the Metaverse.
These basic builds may be rough right now, but the direction is right. As these basic building blocks get smaller and smaller, it becomes more and more hopeful that a real metaverse will be formed, that is, a physically self-consistent metaverse. We hope that by around 2025 we will be able to generate all actions just by thinking.
Looking ahead, many people have said that we are likely to live in a virtual universe now, and there is no way to falsify or prove this issue.
From the perspective of reasonable doubt, if you suspect that we may now live in a virtual universe, then you must first prove that it is feasible to create a virtual universe that is fake and genuine, and then you are qualified to doubt whether we are Now that we are in a virtual universe, if we can’t create a virtual universe that looks like it’s real, then we have no right to doubt that the universe we live in itself is a virtual one. I’ll call this virtual universe over virtual universe .
Second, a subjunctive language can be created within the virtual , and only then can we have reason to doubt the reality we live in. If we suspect that we are already in a virtual universe, then why don't we remember that we entered this virtual universe? In other words, if we can create such an experience ourselves, we must first have a mechanism of Mengpo soup . How can we make the human brain or human consciousness be like drinking Mengpo soup? When you enter a virtual universe, you can forget the previous things first, but you may be able to remember them after you exit.
So we may need to talk about how to realize forgetting and realize the mechanism of Meng Po Tang from the perspective of brain-computer interface or interaction with consciousness.
In the future, the metaverse will have a profound impact on our work and life, on all walks of life, and on the entire human economy and society. This is the consensus of everyone, and this report also provides you with a relatively comprehensive reference, and we also believe that metaverse and sustainable development will be the two most important development themes in the next few decades, and between them The time is also complementary.
02
guest dialogue
Q
Question 1 : What do you think is the biggest difference between the development of China's metaverse and global or foreign metaverses?
A
Dr. Yuan : The difference I see actually has two levels. One level is the concept of metaverse . From the translation point of view, we said that meta data is translated into metadata. It so happens that the three Chinese characters of Yuan Universe can stimulate the imagination of many people in the Chinese context.
Secondly, from the perspective of technological development , returning to the two types of semi-core technologies, in terms of perception and interaction, China's development basically goes hand in hand with Europe or the world. But from the perspective of the virtual world, or the perspective of persistent computing, the difference is indeed a little bigger.
Let's talk about the underlying engine, China doesn't have one, maybe some are under development, but at least there isn't one that is as successful as everyone knows. So I think from the perspective of the virtual world, we may also need to lay out the modeling of engine content generation , so that it may be more balanced.
In the end, the semi-category of technologies I mentioned, from the perspective of blockchain and digital assets, is actually another stage that goes hand in hand. So I think it is basically conceptual and technical layout, and I probably see these two differences.
Q
Question 2 : Do you have any suggestions or plans to provide to these companies that you have observed regarding the Metaverse?
A
Dr. Yuan : Let me talk about this aspect from a macro perspective and a practical perspective.
From a macro point of view , I do agree that the future development scale of the metaverse will be very large. It should be said to be a subversion of the whole society and a subversion of all industries. In a narrow sense , things that we cannot do in real life can be done in the virtual universe.
On the other hand, in real life, some industries will tend to die out. For example, if we can complete all social work without traveling, the transportation industry will become a sunset industry.
The metaverse itself and the core technologies contained in the metaverse, as well as the associated supporting technologies themselves, serve as our advanced stage and long-term vision for defining digital transformation.
From a practical point of view, I think it is still necessary to be pragmatic . Conceptually, we can call it metaverse. In practice, we still need to look at successful cases that have already produced benefits, such as ARVR digital twins. To give a more typical example, like automatic driving, most of the test cars in the research and development of automatic driving are carried out in the virtual world. To test on the actual road, first, it is costly, second, it takes a lot of time, and third There are safety risks, so basically most of the AI tests for autonomous driving are performed in the virtual world of virtual roads. This is a typical example of relying on VR to reduce costs and increase efficiency in the virtual world. Business owners can learn from the successful cases to see what can be applied to their own business.
From the perspective that the technology is not yet mature enough, it will be beneficial to you to explore its industrial application first, and to start the TOB market first. It will not burn money, but start to have some income, and you can develop and do business at the same time. My advice to metaverse technology providers.
03
Audience question
Q
Question 1 : If from another point of view of the metaverse, it is a universe parallel to our current real physical world, then is the energy required to build such a large universe worth it for us to actually do this?
A
Dr. Yuan : This is a very good question. Whether the metaverse is more energy-intensive or more energy-efficient is itself open to debate. Taking Bitcoin as an example, obviously everyone thinks that its mining process is a more energy-intensive process. But we can indeed see that many applications in the metaverse are indeed greatly saving energy. For example, the example of autonomous driving I mentioned earlier can run millions of times in the virtual world, and it does not need to be in the real world. Burn a drop of oil in it.
In fact, from a macro perspective, there is currently no conclusion as to whether the metaverse is more energy-intensive or more energy-efficient. But I think it is a process, which is why we should now actively explore the interaction between metaverse and sustainable development. We hope that from a macro perspective, Metaverse can help us to be more energy-efficient and more conducive to the goal of double carbon, rather than more energy-consuming.
Q
Principal Wang : So what do you think or in your imagination, if conflicts and crises arise in this decentralized metaverse, how will you deal with them?
A
Dr. Yuan :
This is another angle, which is a governance (management) issue. This is actually a part with a lot of room for imagination, that is, decentralization, which should be said to be a subversion of our social situation.
I myself have been engaged in the blockchain for so many years, so I think that as far as the blockchain is concerned, my summary has two ways of speaking. One is that the blockchain is used to transfer value, but I think the more important thing is to transfer trust.
From the point of view of conveying trust, for example, when I posted to Moments some time ago, I gave an example, that is to say, whether this web3 or decentralization, first of all, can it solve the problem of authenticity of the news? The authenticity of this news should not be reviewed by any government department, and everything should not be deleted.
But we can have a peer review (peer review) mechanism to determine whether it is true or false. After guaranteeing trust and ensuring that everyone can get the truth about many things, it is very likely that some battles will not be fought.
If we can decentralize and greatly reduce deception in a technical way, I think many conflicts may not happen again. This may also be one of my ideals.
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