（1）
I was rather discouraged about the development of technology last year:
Cloud native: technology has been turbulent, SOA->Servless, Docker->WASM, GitOps+CICD+DevOps
Cloud Computing: From public cloud to private cloud in China, and even financial cloud, state-owned cloud, government cloud, etc.
SaaS: Last year, the global SaaS upstarts fell by 30%-60% in valuation/market value, and China’s SaaS industry and investment are also hehehe
Big data: Distributed relational NewSQL, NOSQL, lake, warehouse, integration of lake and warehouse...
Blockchain: Although Meta’s Libra was killed, there was at least the merger of Ethereum 2.0 last year, but it still developed on its own and did not go out of the circle
AI: GPT-3 has been released for three years and no one cares about it. Since the release of Transformer, professors have been forced to return to the ivory tower of universities from the industry
VR/AR: Software giants such as Google/Meta Internet Corporation and Microsoft have all abolished VR/AR R&D
IoT: Since the rise and fall of smartphones/smart wearable devices/smart home devices since 2013, IoT has lacked a bursting point
Smart cars: also return from autonomous driving to new energy vehicles
（2）
This year is really the starting year of the new wave of human-computer interaction technology:
ChatGPT, the human-computer interaction session that exploded in March
Vision Pro (new spatial computing platform) released early this morning (June)
Presumably within three years, the combination of Vision Pro and mature AI (such as multi-round conversations, speech recognition, speech synthesis, machine translation, face/object recognition, picture and image generation) will make the Vision Pro experience better.
Apple gave another injection to the discouraged VR/AR world. It is unpredictable whether the future will become the status quo of iPad tablet computers and iWatch smart wearables. But compared to the VR/AR hardware made by Internet companies Google and Meta, and the VR/AR hardware made by software giants like Microsoft, Apple's consistent idea of software and hardware integration and mutual optimization is what I am most optimistic about.
Apple's Vision Pro is both VR and AR. It uses as many as 13 cameras to turn VR into AR. In fact, AR is more difficult than VR, and Apple has bypassed this hurdle.
Another trick of Apple is: first introduce the most familiar and flat picture and photo browsing, video calling/3D movies, music playback/mute earphones and other conventional applications into Vision Pro, and the most popular true 3D immersive games are Chicken thieves are avoiding it, waiting for the enthusiastic pioneers to explore.
Chicken thief is good, many problems do not need to be overcome now. After all, Apple’s VR/AR has been held back for 8 years and tickets have been skipped for 4 years. If it can’t be released after all, this is not the way commercial companies operate.
The price that everyone cares about the most, you don’t need to worry too much about taking too much care. Mass consumer goods are all scale effects with diminishing marginal cost. Let's look at it three years later (2026).
（3）
Think back to the year: In 1977, the Apple II was released, which finally allowed every consumer to own a computer (however, in 1977, what could every consumer have a computer for? Even if ordinary consumers now have one A mobile phone or a computer is nothing more than watching news, watching videos, watching movies and TV dramas, listening to songs, playing games, chatting, and shopping).
In fact, before 1977, the computer industry was already very mature, and the hardware and software technologies of large-scale computers were already very mature. The release of Apple II was just to make the price acceptable to mass consumers, without much innovation.
Think back to those years: the release of Windows95, firstly made the transition from command-line interactive character UI to mouse graphic UI, and secondly made networking easier (directly killed Novell, which required professional networking).
The reason why I think back to these two incidents back then is that I mainly want to explain two things:
1. New Computing Devices
2. New human-computer interaction
These two things are unremarkable in the eyes of professionals, but in the mass market, they have opened up two large-scale wealth-creating industries and ecology.
Ask yourself:
Did you get rich in the Windows era?
Have you made money in the Web age?
Have you made your fortune in the era of mobile smartphones?
Have you made money in the era of cloud computing/big data/SaaS?
Did you make money in the past AI (2015-2022) era?
Now, a new world is coming again: Apple Vision Pro new space computing platform + NewAI (ChatAI and AIGC) era, have you made a fortune yet?
