Many chip companies and lithography machine giant ASML are still chattering and emphasizing that chips are still in short supply, but the inventory data of chip companies will not be falsified. Survey data shows that the inventory levels of 20 global chip companies in 2021 are 33.6% higher than in 2019 , On the one hand, high inventory levels, on the other hand, demand is falling, and the chip industry is about to collapse.
The decline in chip demand first appeared in the mobile phone and automobile industries. Global sales of mobile phones and cars in 2021 will be significantly lower than in 2019. This is in stark contrast to the rising chip demand emphasized by the chip industry.
In Q1 of this year, the recession of mobile phones and automobiles became more obvious. The global mobile phone shipments fell by more than 10%, the Chinese market plummeted by 30% from February to April, and the monthly sales of automobiles also fell by 40%. The demand for chips has dropped significantly.
The decline of the mobile phone industry has seriously shrunk the demand for upstream chips. The two major mobile phone chip companies responded quickly. MediaTek cut orders by 30%, and Qualcomm cut orders by more than 10%. RF chip companies Skyworks and Qorvo complained about their high chip inventory. The mobile phone industry Signs of severe chain inventory are becoming increasingly apparent.
When the automobile and mobile phone industries are in significant decline, the PC industry will usher in a rare and strong rebound in 2021, but this is only a flash in the pan. In the first quarter of this year, global PC shipments fell by 5%, and PC companies' purchases of processors shrunk even faster, and Intel's PC processor sales fell by 13%.
Facing the increasingly high inventory level in the industrial chain, ASML, which produces lithography machines, and some chip companies are still expecting that the chip supply shortage will continue until next year. Their threats are mainly based on interest considerations. ASML hopes that the global chip production capacity will increase. The expansion continues, so that its lithography machines continue to sell well and make huge profits.
The shortage of chip supply since Q4 in 2020 has triggered a surge in chip prices. The profits of some chip companies have even increased by more than ten times. Many chip companies have made a lot of money. However, this is more of a joint speculator by chip companies The hype is not the actual demand of the market.
Nowadays, the inventory level of the global chip industry is further rising, while the sales of automobiles, mobile phones, PCs, TVs and other products are further declining. Companies in these industries can no longer bear the high chip prices and cut production capacity one after another, which eventually affects the chip industry in turn. The chip supply shortage advocated by the chip industry has shown its original shape.
In the face of changes in the chip market, some fast-moving chip companies have responded. Texas Instruments, the leader in the analog chip industry, quickly cut prices and sold chips in stock. People in the industry pointed out that some chips from Texas Instruments have dropped from the original market price of 100 yuan to more than 20 yuan. Over 70%, as some chip companies cut prices and sell goods, the price collapse of the chip industry may be about to begin.
The sharp rise in chip prices has lasted for more than a year, discounting the pain of rising prices for conservative chips made in China. Now it is time for the chip industry to bear the pain. In the past, once a chip fell into a cycle of decline, it often lasted for a long time. How long will this round of chip price slump last?