Source | Tencent Technology
On July 6, the 6th World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2023) was held in Shanghai. The theme of the conference was "Intelligently Connected World, Creating the Future".
At the opening ceremony of the conference, Tesla CEO Musk said in a video speech that the number of robots in the future will exceed that of humans, and Tesla is willing to license autonomous driving technology to other automakers.
Musk believes that we have seen the explosive growth of digital computing power, the gap between machine and biological computing power is further widening, the computing power of robots is much stronger, and the number of robots on the earth will exceed the number of humans in the future . This will allow human beings to enter the "post-scarcity" era, and there will be no shortages in the era of abundance. Musk revealed that the humanoid robot "Optimus" developed by Tesla is designed to help humans complete repetitive, dangerous, and human-unwilling tasks.
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Optimus is currently still in development. Musk said that the utilization rate of fully self-driving cars is nearly five times that of non-autonomous driving cars. Sharing." He said that L4-L5 fully automatic driving will probably be realized later this year.
Finally, Musk said that he has always admired the wisdom and drive of the Chinese people. Once China is determined to do something, it will definitely be able to do a good job in this industry. He believes that China will have strong AI capabilities.
The following is the full text of his speech:
Hello everyone, friends from Shanghai, especially Secretary Chen!
I think that artificial intelligence will have a profound effect and influence on the evolution of human beings in the future, including on civilization. We have also seen the explosive growth of digital computing capabilities. One of the most critical indicators to consider is the ratio of digital computing, machine computing, and biological computing power. What does that mean? It is how powerful calculations can be done by humans, how powerful calculations can be done by computers and machines, and what is the ratio of computing power between computers and humans? This ratio is getting higher and higher every year, which means that the gap between machine and biological computing power is further widening. After a period of time, compared with machine intelligence, the proportion of human intelligence will increase. Lower and lower, it would be a fundamental, deep change. And its impact is currently difficult to predict.
But it may be one of the most profound periods in human history. Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is still in a relatively early development stage, but in the future, we will have a lot of robots. Then, what needs to be considered immediately is another question of ratio, that is, the ratio of robots to humans. Now it seems that the next stage will be more than 1:1, that is, the number of robots on the earth will exceed the number of humans. They have a lot more computing power, which seems to be a growing trend. There will be positive effects and some negative effects as well. The positive impact is that we will enter a "post-scarcity" era, and there will be no more shortages, then this era will be an era of abundance, as long as you want, you can get it immediately. Because in the future world, when there are a lot of robots, the production efficiency will be much higher than that dominated by humans, which is a very big change. So we have to be careful to make sure it ends up being helpful to humanity.
But the existing development trend is that, for example, in the field of Tesla's humanoid robots, we also see more and more robots today. The Optimus humanoid robot can help people do some work. It is not very intelligent, but it has enough ability to do some boring, repetitive and dangerous work that humans are unwilling to do. This is our purpose. One of the goals of the Optimus humanoid robot is to do things that humans don't want to do, which may be useful.
I also don't want to be overly confident or optimistic that the Tesla Optimus role will be important right now. In terms of autonomous driving, Tesla is also very interested in sharing and licensing its own autonomous driving technology with other automakers. We think this is a very useful technology, which will let everyone say goodbye to the boring driving process completely, which is beyond the times. At the same time, the utilization rate of cars will also increase greatly. Under normal circumstances, a family car is used for about 10-20 hours a week, and most of the time is parked in the parking lot, but for a fully self-driving car, it may be used for a week 50-60 hours (a total of 168 hours a week). So in terms of usage, fully self-driving cars are nearly 5 times more than non-autonomous driving cars.
At Tesla, we also want to provide this technology, which is why we are willing to license the full self-driving technology to other automakers to use it. So what is the current state of our autonomous driving? Tesla is getting very close to fully autonomous driving without human intervention. We've tested it on U.S. roads, and human intervention is rarely required these days. So when I drive a Tesla and use the latest FSD fully automatic driving Beta version of the technical system, I basically don't need to touch the steering wheel.
So I predict that to achieve fully automatic driving, or L4-L5 fully automatic driving, it will be possible later this year. I've made predictions before, and I've been wrong, but I think this one is closer to reality than ever before. Another point is to remain concerned about this kind of deep, comprehensive artificial intelligence, especially for fully self-driving cars. For example, in this example, it is difficult for us to make a fully automatic driving car with limited AI, but we think we can solve it soon. I have already predicted that fully automatic driving will be possible later this year. Although it is not 100% guaranteed, the trend is like this. This kind of limited artificial intelligence is completely different from the situation of a comprehensive artificial intelligence. Comprehensive artificial intelligence is difficult to define. Comprehensive artificial intelligence is much smarter than humans in any field. Tesla has not done research in this area, and other companies are doing research on comprehensive artificial intelligence, but I think this is something we need to consider, and now we need to carry out some supervision on them to ensure this very deep artificial intelligence.
The kind of artificial intelligence I am talking about is close to tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands or even millions of high-performance computers collaborating in a data center to produce a combined superintelligence. It has powerful abilities, stronger than humans. It's a risk, a worry. It may have a very positive future, but there may also be some negative futures, and we must do our best to ensure that these negative and negative futures will not happen.
There are many intelligent people in China. I have always admired the wisdom and drive of the Chinese people. Once China is determined to do something, it will definitely be able to do a good job in this industry. It is important in all economic fields and industries. This, of course, also includes the artificial intelligence industry. So I believe China will have strong AI capabilities, this is my prediction. Thank you very much for inviting me to attend today's event and express some opinions online. I hope you find these opinions interesting. Thanks again to all the friends in Shanghai, and thanks to Secretary Chen. I look forward to participating offline in the next session.
