This is the work of our team to participate in the big data theme competition of the computer design competition in 2022 - Hejing Track. It took more than a week to complete it with all our efforts, but unfortunately only won the second prize in the school competition in the end, and sent it out Share it with everyone.
When the epidemic hits the economy: a devastating blow or a rebirth
On December 26 last year, the British think tank - Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) released the latest global economic outlook report. In its latest economic report, CEBR predicts that global GDP will exceed $100 trillion as soon as 2022, two years earlier than previously expected.
CEBR's latest report reads: "A year ago, we hoped that the economic effects of the epidemic would subside relatively quickly. And we now expect that in 2022, global GDP will exceed 100 trillion US dollars for the first time, which is higher than last year's forecast of 2024." The year is 2 years earlier.
We are trying to use data to explain a series of impacts of the epidemic on the economy. At the same time, we are also thinking about whether the social state under the epidemic has a positive or negative effect on the economy.
1 Introduction to Basic Dataset
We use big data analysis technology to analyze China's national economy and international economy under the epidemic situation.
In the analysis of the epidemic development, we used the global new crown pneumonia epidemic quantitative data set, the trend data of the cumulative number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States, India, and China from the beginning of 2020 to March 2020, and the cumulative death rate from March 2020 to March 2022 data.
Among the dozens of documents of China's national economy from 2006 to 2021 provided by Hejing Big Data, we extracted the data of China's industrial export price index, China's quarterly GDP, and China's monthly consumer price index , China's national tax revenue every quarter, China's business climate and entrepreneur confidence index every quarter, and China's consumer confidence index data.
In terms of international economy, we use the data of the US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from February 12, 2020 to September 29, 2020, the data of the SSE 50 and CSI 50 stocks in the stock market from the beginning of 2019 to the beginning of 2022, Data on the average GDP growth rate of some countries in the world from 2018 to 2020.
2 Development of COVID-19
2.1 Overview
According to relevant official news reports and press conferences, the first official report of a patient with pneumonia of unknown cause appeared at the end of 2019. It is only four or five months after the new crown epidemic began to spread around the world, which shows how fast it spreads .
The reason why the new crown virus has such a terrifying transmission speed is mainly due to its mode of transmission. According to CCTV news, the Shanghai Epidemic Prevention and Control Work Conference introduced: Health and epidemic prevention experts emphasized that the confirmed transmission routes of new crown pneumonia are mainly direct transmission, aerosol Transmission and contact transmission. Direct transmission refers to the infection caused by the patient's sneezing, coughing, talking droplets, and exhaled gas directly inhaled at close range; aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of droplets in the air to form aerosols, which cause infection after inhalation; contact transmission refers to Droplets are deposited on the surface of objects, and after touching contaminated hands, they touch the mucous membranes of the mouth, nose, eyes, etc., leading to infection.
2.2 Global statistics and characteristics analysis
2.2.1 Spread range
According to the global new crown epidemic data published by Johns Hopkins University, as of December 2020, a total of 191 countries/regions/cruise ships around the world have had cases of new crown pneumonia infection, with a total of 83.52 million people. The global COVID-19 epidemic quantitative data set provides daily statistical data for more than 200 countries from February 2020 to March 2022, including the total population, the total number of confirmed cases as of the day, and the vaccinations as of the day The total number of vaccines, the number of deaths due to the new crown epidemic as of today.
Dynamically visualize the accumulated confirmed cases in countries around the world, as shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2. This graph counts the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus every three months since March 2020. It can be intuitively found that almost all countries on the world map have found confirmed cases in just three months .
Figure 1 Early stage of epidemic development
Figure 2 The epidemic began to spread
2.2.2 Duration
From the beginning of 2020 to March 2022, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 continues to grow. On the one hand, it is due to the characteristics of the new crown virus, and on the other hand, it also depends on the attitude of the government and the public towards the epidemic prevention policy. The trend chart of the cumulative number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States, India, and China from the beginning of 2020 to March 2020 is as follows.
Figure 3 Changes in the number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in China
Figure 4 Changes in the number of deaths from the new coronavirus in China
Figure 5 Number of confirmed cases in China, India, the United States, and China in the past 20 years
It can be found that the domestic epidemic has leveled off after April 2020, while the United States and India have become more serious. However, in April 2022, the slope of the trend line in Figure 3 and Figure 4 becomes larger, indicating that the epidemic has a tendency to return . This has to arouse our attention.
2.2.3 Mortality
Although the new crown epidemic has continued to this day, the death toll is still rising. But in fact, its death rate is not too high. This does not mean that the new coronavirus infection is less harmful and does not need to be strictly guarded . Using the "fatality rate" to measure the hazards of a certain disease is an outdated routine that has been eliminated by the academic circle for 40 years... This concept has a single index and large limitations, and it cannot reflect the impact of disability, early death, and disability on individuals and society. caused losses. Visualize the cumulative death rate in each country, as shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6 counts the cumulative death rate from March 2020 to March 2022. It can be intuitively found that from the beginning of the epidemic to the cut-off date of data statistics, the death rate has been declining . On the one hand, it is because of the continuous improvement of medical facilities, and on the other hand, it is because of the discovery of asymptomatic infections.
Figure 6 Cumulative death rate
3 Impact of the epidemic on the domestic economy
3.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Gross domestic product, Gross Domestic Product, referred to as GDP, refers to the value of all final products and labor services produced in the economy of a country or region within a certain period of time (a quarter or a year), and is often recognized as a measure of The best indicator of the state of the country's economy. The importance is very high. It is an important comprehensive statistical indicator in the accounting system and a core indicator in China's new national economic accounting system. It reflects the economic strength and market size of a country (or region).
We use python's open source third-party library pyecharts to perform data visualization analysis on the GDP.csv file provided by Hejing:
Figure 7 Absolute value of national GDP
Figure 8 Year-on-year growth of national economy GDP industry
We have drawn a histogram of the absolute value of GDP in the four quarters and a line chart of year-on-year growth in the current quarter. In the figure, we can clearly see that the absolute value of China's GDP has fallen off a cliff in 2020. The biggest drop is the year-on-year growth of GDP in the first quarter from 2019 to 2020, falling from 6.4%- 6.8%, but with the introduction of a series of national policies, the continuous acceleration of vaccine development and the increase of vaccination rate (analyzed in the previous article), it will return to an unprecedented peak in 2021 .
Among the recovery peak data, what should cause us to think most is the reason behind it.
Accurately understanding China's quarterly GDP data is of great significance for correctly grasping the impact of the new crown epidemic on China's economy, scientifically formulating macroeconomic policies, and effectively promoting economic recovery.
From a production point of view, although the new crown epidemic has severely impacted the traditional service industry, the added value of emerging service industries such as information transmission, software, and information technology has maintained rapid growth[1], such as live broadcast platforms such as Douyin, etc. The anchor promotes the consumption enthusiasm of consumers.
3.2 China's industrial product exports
my country has become the world's largest exporter, and trade promotes rapid economic development. However, the financial crisis, exchange rate fluctuations, weak growth, and the new crown epidemic sweeping the world are all affecting my country's future development. We selected the macroscopic China's industrial product export price index from 2006 to 2021 for analysis:
Figure 9 China's industrial product export price index data
For China's industrial product exports, 2020 is a very challenging year. It started to fall from the low of 17 years and did not start to pick up until early 2021 . Foreign trade companies have received the double impact of supply and demand from the domestic and foreign outbreaks of the new crown epidemic. The international trade environment is becoming more and more complex, and export pressure is increasing. In order to prevent and control the new crown epidemic, various regions in my country have carried out personnel flow surveys and a series of policies such as "not leaving the market unless necessary", resulting in workers unable to return to work on time, and those returning to work from other places also face a quarantine period.
According to statistical data [2], as of March 30, 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in some provinces is as follows:
Figure 10 The cumulative number of confirmed cases and the absolute value of export growth in some regions
In the figure, we can clearly observe that Hubei Province, which has the largest cumulative number of confirmed cases, also has the highest absolute value of export growth rate (the export growth rate is all negative), indicating that the shutdown of the city is also inseparable from the increase in the number of confirmed cases. relationship . In order to solve this problem, not only communication between governments is needed, but also support to enterprises is needed to alleviate the pressure on enterprises. At the same time, enterprises themselves must comprehensively use various means to reduce risks.
What makes us excited is that in Figure 9 we can clearly see that China's industrial product export price index data is rising at a steady rate and has created a record high.
So what we need to think about is that we can still achieve such achievements in the context of the epidemic . And the entrepreneur confidence index, the consumer confidence index is also undergoing optimistic changes .
3.3 We are in the epidemic
During the 20-year New Year, the sentence we have heard the most may be: prices have risen again. As daily necessities that run through all aspects of consumers' lives, they have also been driven up to unprecedented prices with the outbreak of the epidemic. Usually, we may need to spend 10 times the price to queue up to buy a mask of 1 or 2 yuan, and the meat necessities of residents' life have also become an unattainable price.
According to the data provided on the Hejing website, we analyzed the consumer confidence index and consumer price index from 2007 to 21:
Figure 11 2007-21 Consumer Confidence Index
We can see from the figure that although there was a very significant upward trend in 17 years, there was a "trough" at the beginning of 2020 . The consumer confidence index is an index that reflects the strength of consumer confidence. It comprehensively reflects and quantifies consumers' subjective feelings on the evaluation of the current economic situation and on economic prospects, income levels, income expectations, and consumer psychology. A leading indicator of the trend is an indispensable basis for monitoring changes in the economic cycle. It shows that consumers have weakened confidence in the economic environment, have a negative attitude towards the economy and have no positive purchase intentions. At the same time, during the epidemic period, consumers' plans to spend on houses, cars, etc. are gradually decreasing due to the control of various regions.
Figure 12 Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index is an indicator of price changes based on the prices of products and services related to residents' lives. It is usually used as an important indicator for observing the level of inflation. The importance is very high and it is a popular economic indicator in the financial market. The Consumer Price Index determines how much consumers spend on goods and services, affecting the cost of doing business. Moreover, the consumer price index affects the formulation of the government's fiscal policy and financial policy.
Based on the consumer price index data from 2008 to 2022, we analyzed the trend chart of the consumer price index in Figure 12. Aside from the sharp drop in prices in 2009, it has been at a relatively stable index from 2012 to 2019. Such an index is conducive to the stability of residents' lives. **However, after the outbreak of the epidemic at the end of 2019, the whole country, cities, and rural areas basically showed a growth trend of the same magnitude. ** After September 20, the consumer price index continued to decline. From May 21 to January 22, with the gradual control of the epidemic and the return to normal life of residents, the consumer price index gradually stabilized . It shows that our social status is recovering and our economy is slowly improving.
3.4 Enterprises under the epidemic
Yiyang Daily All Media News On the afternoon of March 25th, Qu Hai, Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee, went deep into some enterprises in Yiyang High-tech Zone, Longling Industrial Development Zone and related epidemic prevention and control health service stations in Changyi Section of Changzhang Expressway in the way of "four no two straight". Qu Hai emphasized that it is necessary to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, strictly and meticulously implement epidemic prevention and control, take the initiative to solve problems for enterprises, and fully guarantee the normal production and operation of enterprises [3] .
Based on the quarterly Chinese business climate and entrepreneur confidence index dataset from 2005 to 21, we analyzed Figure 13:
Figure 13 Business Climate and Entrepreneur Confidence Index
While the COVID-19 epidemic threatens human health and causes emotional panic, it also limits economic growth and business development as a systemic external shock. In Figure 13, we can clearly see that in the first quarter of 2020, the entrepreneur confidence index and business climate index dropped sharply, reaching the lowest value in fifteen years .
Since the beginning of 2020, affected by the new crown epidemic, the global economic system has been hit by an unprecedented destructive impact. As a result, companies are also facing realistic scenarios such as poor supply chain connection, market stagnation, and operating difficulties. With the effective control of the domestic epidemic situation , enterprises have gradually recovered with the help of national policies such as "resumption of work and production" and "six stability and six guarantees" , and the market environment has gradually recovered . With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, business operations have entered the post-epidemic era. Enterprises also need to adjust their strategies in a timely manner, explore transformation and upgrading paths such as "digitalization" and "Internet +", constantly innovate themselves, and achieve their own high-quality development [4]. After the fourth quarter of 2020, the business climate and entrepreneur confidence The index recovered again.
3.5 Per capita income and expenditure of national residents
3.5.1 Income
**Observing the economic level from the individual level, there is no more representative indicator than the per capita income and expenditure of national residents. **Per capita income really reflects the economic status of each individual, which is the so-called Guotai Minan. Only when the income of each citizen increases can the country become prosperous and strong. Complete the great goal of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
It can be found from Figures 14 and 15 that every four quarters is a cycle. In the first cycle of each year, the human settlement income is the lowest and reaches the maximum in the fourth quarter, but the peak value is gradually increasing every year. It can be found that it seems that the epidemic in 2020 has not affected it. The histogram seems to be easier to observe clearly, and the living income is showing an upward trend.
Figure 14 Per capita income of national residents
Figure 15 Per capita income of national residents
3.5.2 Expenditure
It is not difficult to find that the individual's expenditure on housing and food accounts for a large proportion in each quarter. On the one hand, per capita income tends to increase, and on the other hand, per capita expenditure also rises slowly.
Figure 16 Proportion of Expenditure
Figure 17 National Per Capita Expenditure
3.6 Taking the Epidemic in Wuhan as an Example
3.6.1 Introduction
The new crown epidemic first broke out in Wuhan, spread at a lightning speed, and quickly spread across the country. As of March 29, 2020, a total of 85,778 people have been diagnosed nationwide, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Wuhan alone has reached 50,340. Observing the fold line of the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan epidemic, it can be found that the discount rate from January to February is very steep, which is enough to prove the rapid spread of the epidemic.
Figure 18 Line chart of the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the new crown epidemic in Wuhan
3.6.2 Changes in Wuhan's economy during the epidemic
Wuhan is China's core city in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, with high-quality economic development.
As shown in Figure 19, in addition to the primary industry, the secondary industry and the tertiary industry both declined in 2020 compared to 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is to blame in this regard, and the secondary sector mainly includes industry and construction. Due to the obstruction of labor flow due to the epidemic, logistics will be affected to a certain extent. The main impact is reflected in the tertiary industry. Because Wuhan's main economy is in a transition period , the secondary industry has started to decline since 2019, so the decline of the secondary industry in 20 years is not limited to the new crown epidemic.
Note:
Primary industry: agriculture (including forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, etc.);
Secondary industry: industry (including mining, manufacturing, tap water, electricity, steam, hot water, gas) and construction;
Tertiary industry: all industries other than the above-mentioned primary and secondary industries**. **
Figure 19 GDP of Wuhan
3.6.3 Wuhan New Crown Epidemic and CPI
During the new crown epidemic, Wuhan's CPI slowly fell, which made consumers' purchasing power stronger. The main reason is that the closure of the city has made it impossible for producers to sell their products normally, resulting in the unsalability of some products with expiration dates. At this time, the prices of these commodities will naturally fall. After the epidemic, the CPI gradually returned to a stable state.
Note:
The consumer price index is an indicator that reflects changes in the price level of consumer goods and services generally purchased by households. It is a relative number that reflects changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households through changes over time in a group of representative consumer goods and service items (the base period value of the index is set at 100). The CPI measures changes in the prices of a specified basket of consumer goods and services over time. It is an important indicator for economic analysis and decision-making, general price level monitoring and regulation, and national economic accounting. Its annual rate of change in the consumer price index is often used as an indicator to reflect the degree of inflation or deflation. Generally speaking, a comprehensive and continuous rise in prices is considered to be inflation.
Figure 20 Monthly CPI in Wuhan
Figure 21 Relationship between Wuhan Epidemic CPI
In essence, the COVID-19 epidemic is a large-scale public health security incident that affects economic operations, rather than an economic crisis. On the whole, the new crown epidemic has had a certain degree of economic impact on Wuhan, but it has not changed the macroeconomic pattern and trend of the entire Wuhan, and has not had a substantial impact on Wuhan's medium and long-term economic development goals.
3.7 Government measures
We analyzed the policy notices of local governments from January 2020 to September 2021, and generated a word cloud map as shown in Figure 22.
Figure 22 20.1-21.9 Policy
From the word cloud map we generated, it can be clearly seen that words related to epidemic control such as "epidemic", "prevention and control", "nucleic acid", "testing", "wearing a mask", and "command" are included in the government's policy documents with the highest frequency of occurrence. It shows that the government attaches great importance to epidemic prevention and control when the epidemic occurs, and actively adopts policies to prevent and control the epidemic : policy words such as "headquarters", "centralized isolation", "cleaning and disinfection", and "body temperature detection" can be well expressed.
4 Impact of the epidemic on the international economy
4.1 Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones stock price average index is the most influential and widely used stock price index in the world. It takes a part of representative company stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange as the compilation object, and is composed of four stock price average indexes.
Figure 23 Dow Jones Industrial Average
From Figure 14, the performance of the US Dow Jones Industrial Average from February 12, 2020 to September 29, 2020, we can see that **Although there were a few days when the market opened and closed well, the Dow Jones Industrial Average The overall performance is still sluggish, and it is greatly affected by the epidemic. **Because the stocks selected by the Dow Jones Stock Price Average Index are all representative, and the issuing companies of these stocks are famous companies with important influence in the industry. Their stock prices have attracted the attention of the world stock market, and investors from all over the world attach great importance .
Therefore, we can think that under the impact of the epidemic, international finance has received a relatively large impact, and major companies have undoubtedly been affected by the epidemic, and their performance in the stock market has been mediocre, and even suffered a relatively large impact. **It is understood that Exxon Mobil, a veteran oil company, was kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average due to the impact of the epidemic. ** From this, we can understand that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, many energy stocks and entity companies have encountered huge challenges, and some companies have suffered major economic downturns as a result. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, some high-tech companies have played a huge role according to the needs of the market, and their market value and stock market have performed bravely.
Figure 24 Global Epidemic Trends
From Figure 15 above, we can see that at the beginning of 2020, just as the new crown epidemic was sweeping the world, the transaction price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks in the United States fell to a bottom position. Although there was a rebound in March 2020, it was only It is a flash in the pan, and in the subsequent performance of stock transaction prices, it will continue to maintain a low performance. ** Over time, Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks traded somewhat higher, but remained at a lower level, but did not take as much of a hit as they did in early 2020. **This shows that various countries have the means to maintain economic stability and development. These national policies have enabled major listed companies to stabilize their stock prices in the stock market, and major companies have begun to slowly accept the impact of the new crown epidemic. And use this to change itself and adapt to the market. However, the market has shrunk due to the impact of the epidemic. Therefore, although the country and the company have taken action together, at the end of 2020, although the stock transaction price has recovered, it is still at a low position. The impact of the market is the main reason for this phenomenon. one of the reasons.
Figure 25 Stock Trends of SSE 50 and CSI 500 since the Epidemic
Compared with the domestic stock market, we have found the performance of the SSE 50 and CSI 500 stocks in the stock market from the beginning of 2019 to the beginning of 2022. Both the CSI 500 and SSE 50 indexes include large domestic listed companies, including various state-owned enterprises and high-tech companies, which can better reflect the domestic stock market and company operations. From the figure, we can see that at the end of 2019, that is, when the new crown epidemic broke out, the stock trends of the two indexes undoubtedly fell to the bottom, which proves that the new crown epidemic was indeed at the beginning of the outbreak. The market was hit hard , but the CSI 500 had a strong rebound at the beginning of 2020, because the CSI 500 Index included many high-tech companies and pharmaceutical companies. These companies followed the Internet medical epidemic prevention policy and firmly grasped the market The demand for epidemic prevention has emerged on the Internet, enabling these companies to have a better performance in the stock market. Therefore, the CSI 500 Index can have a good performance in early 2020, but as the market gradually becomes saturated later, the CSI 500 Index has returned to a lower position, at a similar transaction price as the Shanghai 50 Index. However, it is still better than the stock market performance at the beginning of the outbreak. At the beginning of the outbreak, the impact on the market was the largest and most serious .
In general, whether it is domestic or foreign, when the new crown epidemic first broke out, it had the greatest impact on the financial market and stock market. By the end of 2020, the financial markets at home and abroad have maintained a stable level without rising or falling, but they are still at a low position, which shows that the impact of the epidemic is still continuing and has not returned to the level before the outbreak. Location. This shows that the impact of the new crown epidemic is far-reaching and serious.
Figure 26 18-20 GDP growth rate of some countries on five continents
After analyzing the performance of domestic and foreign financial markets, Figure 17 shows the performance of various countries in this new crown epidemic. Figure 17 above shows the performance of the average GDP growth rate of some countries in the world from 2018 to 2020.
Among them, the average GDP growth in Europe is the most influential, and the decline is the largest among the five continents . Except for Africa, the GDP growth rate of the other four continents has dropped significantly. It can be seen that the impact of the epidemic on African countries is not as small as that on other countries, but the economic development of African countries is relatively poor compared to other countries, and they can withstand greater impacts. But for economically developed European countries, although their economies are developed and many countries are developing countries, because their economic structures are relatively simple, they lack industrial production parts, and their economies are more dependent on technological exports. In the case of a shutdown, this single economic structure cannot withstand such a large impact, so European countries are the most affected by the new crown epidemic, and the decline in GDP growth is the largest. Similarly, because some countries in Oceania are island countries and their economic structure is similar to that of Europe, their GDP growth rate has also declined relatively. Contrary to Oceania and Europe, Asia has more industrialized countries, such as China, India, Vietnam and other countries, and these countries can rely on industrialization to maintain the basics of the country. Therefore, although Asia is the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the impact is far less than that of countries in Europe and Oceania.
5 summary
Through the previous analysis, we can see that, whether it is the domestic or international economy, although there were huge shocks from the end of 19 to the beginning of 20, our economy is recovering after various efforts, setting off a new wave of economic shocks. The round of record highs is no longer a dream.
**In short, in the face of the new crown epidemic, we must not only have a clear understanding of the difficulties we are facing and will face, but also have full confidence in the recovery of the economy. **Whether it is fiscal or monetary, we have more policy space than Western countries. Under the unified and firm leadership of the Party Central Committee, we must adhere to the "four self-confidences". Focus on helping small and micro enterprises and people in need, stabilize the unemployment rate and the supply of basic materials, seize the time to make up for the shortcomings of economic development, further expand opening up, and maintain the sustained, stable and healthy development of China's economy.
references:
- Xu Yating, Xu Xianchun, Yu Hang, Yang Yewei. How to Accurately Understand China's GDP Growth Data in the First Quarter of 2020[J]. Economic Journal, 2020, 7(03): 1-19. DOI: 10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20200811.001.
- Wang Li, Huang Dehai. The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on China's foreign trade exports and countermeasures [J]. Price Monthly, 2021, (03): 52-58.
- Jiang Huaiyuan, Zeng Hua. Strict and meticulous efforts to prevent and control the epidemic to ensure the normal production and operation of enterprises [N]. Yiyang Daily, 2022-03-26(001)
- Zhang Zhuoqun. Research on the high-quality development path of "specialized, special and new" enterprises in the post-epidemic era [J]. Shopping Mall Modernization, 2022, (04): 78-80.
- Han Han. The Domestic and Foreign Economic Impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic and my country's Countermeasures [J]. Financial Development Review, 2020, (01): 21-28.
- Li Ying. Research on the impact of the new crown epidemic on my country's macroeconomics based on the GBRT integration model [D]. Chongqing Technology and Business University, 2021. DOI: 10.27713/d.cnki.gcqgs.2021.000402.