According to media reports, the domestic EUV lithography machine has made a major breakthrough, and the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Mechanics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has made a major breakthrough in the core optical devices. In addition, the optical system giant King Optics has also recently invited bids for the five-axis linkage machining center, showing that the entire industry chain is stable. An important step has been taken in the EUV lithography machine, which will be another major blow to ASML.
The results released by ASML earlier showed that revenue fell by 19% and 29.1% year-on-year and month-on-month respectively, and net profit fell by 47.8% and 60.8% year-on-year and month-on-month respectively. The reason is that its major customers such as South Korea, Taiwan and the United States purchases have declined significantly.
In the case that several traditional customers of ASML have significantly reduced the purchase amount, the revenue contributed by China to ASML has risen rapidly. In 2019, ASML's revenue from mainland China was 1.37 billion euros, and in 2021 it will increase to 2.74 billion euros, doubled. Doubled, mainland China has surpassed the United States to become ASML's third largest customer. In 2021, the United States will only contribute 1.583 billion euros to ASML.
China's contribution to ASML's revenue continues to increase because China has accelerated the expansion of chip manufacturing capacity in the past few years. China is the world's largest manufacturing country. The demand for engraving machines is greater, and the production technology of DUV lithography machines is mature, and ASML can expand rapidly. As a result, China's contribution to ASML's revenue has grown rapidly.
However, China's technological breakthroughs in DUV and EUV lithography machines will deal a major blow to ASML. In the future, ASML will hardly have the good days of enjoying huge profits like today.
China's technological breakthroughs in lithography machines are first in DUV lithography machines. At present, China has been able to produce 28nm lithography machines. 28nm lithography machines can be used to produce 14nm processes, and the 28nm lithography machines produced by Shanghai Microelectronics The machine has been adopted by Foxconn on a large scale, indicating that the domestic lithography machine has reached a very high level in terms of mature technology.
At present, China is promoting the mass production of 7nm process. When it is difficult to obtain EUV lithography machine, DUV lithography machine can be used to produce 7nm process. Liang Mengsong, co-CEO of SMIC, China's largest chip manufacturer, once served as a technology development executive at TSMC, which is enough to ensure the success of China's 7nm process development with DUV lithography machines.
China produces 7nm process with DUV lithography machine, and 7nm and mature process are enough to meet nearly 90% of China's chip demand, so the urgency of China's demand for EUV lithography machine has been eased, and it also provides China with the development of its own EUV lithography machine. time.
China's chip industry chain is now down-to-earth and gradually opening up all links of EUV lithography machines, which means that China will be able to develop a completely self-developed EUV lithography machine in the next few years. By then, China will completely realize the domestic production of the chip manufacturing industry chain. , without relying on ASML at all.
Today's ASML is actually facing internal and external troubles. Its three major customers TSMC, Samsung, and Intel all predict that the development of 2nm and even more advanced processes will be delayed until after 2025, which means that they will not purchase optical chips on a large scale in the past few years. Engraving machines, the importance of such a large customer in China is undoubtedly more prominent.
However, ASML’s previous attitude towards Chinese chips is undoubtedly disappointing. With our self-developed lithography machines making breakthroughs, we should take the lead in supporting the development of the domestic chip industry chain and reduce the purchase of ASML’s lithography machines. It can be said that ASML is going to have a hard time in the next few years.