Gold trend analysis:
The relative volatility of gold in the past two trading days has been relatively small, without major ups and downs, but there has been no unilateral market, and it is still a downward trend based on the previous decline. The same is true yesterday. It rebounded to around 1970 and still fell back down. The current price is around 1958, forming a second drop expectation. Judging from the recent market trend, a large wave of trend process can only achieve a relatively large upward or downward trend after a second confirmation, so the short-term structure is also the same. After the market has not undergone a clear volatility expectation , The secondary volatility may be relatively large, rather than a one-time increase or retreat, so short-term attention should be paid to the strength of the secondary rebound and decline.
In terms of the current daily line structure, the market as a whole fluctuated around the 5th and 10th line yesterday. Although it was in line with expectations, such an operating state brought great difficulty and risk to the operation. At present, the market has fallen back below the 5th and 10th line, so the area around the 5th and 10th line 1967-70 will become the main pressure today. Technically, gold has always been slightly bearish, but it has been hindered by risk aversion recently. Disturbance, has been procrastinating without adjustment, or the adjustment is not in place. If there is a correction and adjustment of gold today, two basic conditions are required: first, the risk aversion sentiment should not be used for speculation; second, the US index must also rebound accordingly. If there is an adjustment, first focus on the short-term trend line support 1953-50 area below, and technically this position will not be the ultimate goal of the adjustment. From the perspective of the daily line structure, there is still a high possibility that it will retrace 1940-35 in the later period , or even around 1920 on the 20th line, but such a trend state must have the blessing of the fundamentals, that is, the fundamentals should stop making any noise related to risk aversion.
Gold is currently in a descending triangle in the 4-hour trend, and the price has gradually stepped out of the narrow range of the previous trading day. The K-line continues to be under pressure on the short-term moving average, and the short-term trend continues to be weak. Gold continued to fall in early trading, with the lowest at 1956. Although the performance was extremely weak, this trend cannot be chased short. After all, 1935 has not broken for the time being, and the 4-hour cycle Bollinger is currently closed. Therefore, to be short or wait for a rebound, short cycle The unilateral moving average suppression point is around 1965. After the adjustment in the Asian market, you can go short after the rebound is over. Just pay attention to the lows of 1945 and 1935 below the Asian-European market. The U.S. market is affected by unemployment data. If it effectively breaks 1935, there may be a sharp drop below 1900. If it does not break 1935, profit margins must be adjusted at any time.
Operational ideas: mainly rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by stepping back to lows and more. The top short-term focus is on the 1975-1980 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 1955-1950 first-line support.
Crude oil trend analysis:
Analysis of crude oil news: At the beginning of the Asian market on March 30 (Thursday), U.S. oil traded around US$ 72.96 /barrel; oil prices fell in volatile trading on Wednesday. Two days of rising profits were pocketed, and the Federal Reserve Board of Supervisors said that many parties were to blame for the banking crisis, and worries increased, limiting the rise in oil prices. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday , as refineries reopened after maintenance and imports fell to a two-year low. Stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude futures fell by 1.6 million barrels last week, the EIA said. Analysts said: "Increased refining activities, reduced imports, and continued strong exports have led to a substantial reduction in crude oil inventories ." There has been an increase, but U.S. crude oil inventories have plummeted, Russian production has declined, and geopolitical tensions continue. Oil prices maintain a volatile upward view. In the short term or several times, they will test the 75 USD/barrel mark; market uncertainty risks increase, and transactions need to be cautious!
Crude oil technical analysis: Crude oil tested highs and fell back yesterday, and the daily line closed on the Xiaoyin K line. The inertia continued a wave of highs to around 74.30 and was under pressure. In the end, 73.0 was recovered. The overall space is not too big. The daily line is in the transition from yin to yang, and it is slightly suppressed when encountering resistance. It is not a strong unilateral. It's just a rebound correction, and the daily line has entered a period of reselecting a neutral value in the range, with resistance on the top and support on the bottom. The 4-hour chart touched the first strong resistance after the second wave of rebound. Yesterday’s highs fell back, showing that the short-term was slightly blocked. If it does not break through the resistance of 74.30 today, the short-term may turn back and fall. It is currently close to the middle track, and the Asian market pays attention to this support. It is still in the rebound structure for the time being. If it is on the lower track and the middle track, the rebound will end early. After 4 hours, it enters the long-short differentiation stage, and the long and short positions change each other.
Operational ideas: The rebound is mainly high-altitude, and the rebound is supplemented by stepping back low. The top short-term focus is on the 73.8-74.3 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 72.1-71.6 first-line support.
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