Gold market trend analysis:
On Monday (April 10), the international gold price once fell by about 1%, returning below the dry mouth of 2,000 US dollars . The previously released U.S. non-farm payrolls data for March showed a tight labor market and raised expectations for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May. "The uptrend established in gold prices since November 2022 remains intact," metals firm MKS PAMP said in a note, but added that a "stickier" U.S. core CPI in March would bolster the Fed's A 25 basis point rate hike in May is expected, and unless there is a new catalyst, gold prices may not hit new all-time highs this month. Analysts pointed out that this is what they think the Fed wants to see in the employment data, that is, an orderly slowdown in job growth, an expansion of the labor supply and a gradual decline in wage growth. The Fed is expected to raise rates another 25 basis points in May, the last possible hike. Gold bulls took profits as a strong U.S. job growth report on Friday (April 7) boosted expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve and helped stabilize the dollar, market analysts said. But he pointed out that the pullback in gold prices is only a technical correction, and as long as gold prices remain above $1,920, the bullish outlook is likely to continue.
The daily gold level fluctuates at a high level; the price of gold recorded a cross star last Wednesday, followed by the small Yinxian line on Thursday, forming a top signal similar to the "evening star", KDJ formed a dead cross at a high level, and the red column shrank after the top divergence of MACD, and the gold price short-term Facing the risk of peaking, there is a risk of further callbacks in the short term. The initial support is around the 10-day moving average at 1987, then the 1980 mark, the 21-day moving average is around 1963.57, and the strong support is around 1945, the 38.2% retracement of the 1804-2031 rally , if the support falls, it will increase the bearish signal in the market outlook. Since the MACD golden cross signal has not been completely destroyed, before falling below the 21-day moving average, the gold price still has the opportunity to continue to fluctuate and rise in the market outlook. The resistance is around 2010, if it can regain this position, it will weaken the short-term bearish signal. The top focuses on the 2010 resistance, and the bottom focuses on the 1980 support in the short term.
Operational ideas: It is recommended to rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by low callbacks;
Crude oil market trend analysis:
International oil prices were largely steady on Monday (April 10), even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners ( OPEC +) are set to further tighten supply in May, concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth could dampen fuel demand. Earlier, OPEC+ announced that it would further cut production by 1.66 million barrels per day from May, and the prices of the two major oil futures rose for the third consecutive week. The new production cut participants will mainly come from the Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. "The bears are questioning the outlook for demand given the new production cuts, but clearly the bulls are now expecting a tighter second half of the year. I'm in the latter camp," the analyst said. The closely watched U.S. inflation report for March, due this week, may have Help investors judge the Fed's interest rate path. Borrowing costs could still climb higher if inflation remains strong, despite expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of rate hikes because of the recent banking crisis, analysts said. "This week's U.S. data could weigh on sentiment if strong data reinforces expectations for continued Fed tightening, while weaker data points to economic pain," the analyst said. Emotions will increase."
The daily level of crude oil fluctuated at a high level; the 10-day moving average crossed the 55-day and 100-day moving averages, the MACD golden cross was running well, and the Bollinger line opened. Small, and all closed above the 80 mark, the market outlook is still biased towards bulls, the initial resistance continues to refer to the position near last week's high of 81.79, the January high resistance is around 82.61, and the strong resistance is around the 200-day moving average of 83.51. Since November 18 High resistance is also around this level, and a further break above would add a bullish mid-term signal. KDJ tends to form a dead cross in the oversold area. Oil prices are currently under pressure from a strong resistance area. We still need to beware of the possibility of a shock peak or a deep correction. The initial support is around last week's low of 78.98, March 9 The daily low is supported around 78.03, the 10-day moving average is supported around 77.20, and the 55-day moving average is supported around 76.08. If this support is unexpectedly lost, it will weaken the bullish signal for the market outlook. The top short-term focus is on the 80.8-81.3 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 78.5-78 first-line support.
Operational ideas: It is recommended to rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by low callbacks;
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