The abstract, model and other parts of the paper are as follows:
Summary
The current national economic accounting system with GDP as its core is incomplete because it ignores calculations related to non-market output, environmental damage, and waste of resources. Due to the increasing negative impact on resource consumption and the environment in economic activities, the consequences of ignoring this negative impact for a long time have overestimated the economic benefits brought by GDP and misled the society. The economic loss caused by development and damage to the environment encourages the abuse of resources or damage to the environment. Therefore, we propose to use green GDP (GGDP) to replace GDP, where green refers to the perspectives and factors that include the environment and sustainable development, which is a better measure than the current traditional GDP.
We first define the calculation index of GGDP as:
GGPD = GDP - resource consumption cost - environmental protection cost
Among them, the cost of resource consumption includes three parts: water resource consumption, oil consumption and natural gas consumption, and the cost of environmental protection is divided into two parts: waste water treatment cost and exhaust gas treatment cost. In addition, we used principal component analysis to group different types of oil into one category, and different types of natural gas into one category.
In order to measure the relationship between GGDP and the climate environment, we selected several measurement factors such as CO2 concentration, vegetation coverage, average temperature, pollutant gas content, and sea level height, and defined a climate environment index with the AHP. Afterwards, we explored the relationship between GGDP and climate change with a random forest regression model.
According to the cosine similarity between GGDP, GDP and climate and environment indicators, we found that GGDP is closely related to the environment. It can be considered that using GGDP instead of GDP as an economic evaluation index can guide the development of policies in a more green and sustainable direction, which has better advantages. To this end, we have also written a non-technical report to illustrate this point.
code description
1. According to the GGDP indicators selected in the literature, it is found that GGDP is related to water resources, etc., so that all factors that affect GGDP can be screened out, and an evaluation system can be established with all factors using the AHP (you can also directly screen without the evaluation system factor, build a regression model)
2. Gray relational analysis and principal component analysis can be used to screen factors mainly used for climate evaluation (temperature, CO2 concentration, etc.)
You can use one of these two methods to sort all the factors and find the most important 2-3 factors
3. Multiple regression analysis or neural network prediction modeling can be performed on both GDP and GGDP, and the factors screened above can be used as independent variables to predict future GGDP and GDP, and then compare them to illustrate the effect of GGDP on climate improvement.
4. When analyzing a specific country, you can also predict the country's resources and population (regression analysis or neural network), and then analyze whether the new GDP matches the growth rate of population and resources, and finally write a report.
Question F does not require too complicated code, the main body is the regression model, use the regression model to link factors with climate change, predict the future situation, predict both GDP and GGDP, and compare the differences between the two. If you feel that the regression model is too monotonous, you can also use the neural network, and compare the two results to make the results more abundant.
Question F is mainly described in words and pictures, which can be modeled in language, assisting simple code and analysis. It mainly needs to be justified. The writing suggestions are as follows:
- Plus Literature review
The focus of question F is clear logic and thoughtful consideration, so adding literature review can increase the highlights of the article. The literature should explain the negative impact of the current GDP evaluation system on the environment and the beneficial impact of GGDP on the climate environment, and compare the various evaluations of GDP , for example you can write:
GDP is the final result of production activities of all resident units in a country (or region) within a certain period of time, and is an important indicator to measure the economic status and development level of a country or region; GGDP refers to the consumption of natural capital deducted from the gross domestic product , to obtain the environment-adjusted GDP, which is one of the new indicators for evaluating sustainable development. The following studies have been done at home and abroad on which one is more suitable for the current social environment, GDP or GGDP: (Here are a few references cited, then explain the importance of GGDP, and then give the GGDP you choose)
- Add global GDP, GGDP, energy, population and other distribution maps (Tableau can be used, some of which are ready-made) to compare the changes of these factors under climate change, and describe these pictures in text.
Figure 1. GDP distribution map of countries in the world
Figure 2 Energy usage in countries around the world