Many investors do not know how to do a good job of analyzing the trading environment during the stock allocation period. In this matter, we must do a good job of macro analysis and considerable analysis in order to judge better analysis results during the stock allocation period. How to analyze specifically What about the trading environment?
The editor will talk about the role of the Federal Reserve in the economy based on the current macro environment. First, let's look at the current economic operation of the United States. The inflation rate is now 8.2%, which is based on CPI. The other is the so-called p-code that the Federal Reserve prefers to use, which is now around 6%. As I said before, another goal of the Fed is to ensure sustained and stable economic development. The core indicator is actually represented by the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate in the United States is now 3.5%, reaching a level of the natural unemployment rate.
This means that when all people are employed normally, its lowest unemployment rate is the current level of 3.5%. So taking the inflation rate and unemployment rate together, we can see that the current US economy is in an overheated state, and the speed of development exceeds the speed of its potential economic development under normal conditions. Therefore, the biggest responsibility of the Fed is now It is to control inflation and prevent the economy from continuing to overheat.
The Fed has two policy instruments:
The first is to control our so-called federal reserve rate, which is our so-called interest rate increase.
The second is to control the circulation of US dollars currently circulating in the market. How is this controlled? Generally, stocks are allocated by repurchasing bonds. If you want to buy a large amount of US government bonds from the Federal Reserve in the market, it is equivalent to injecting US dollar cash into the market in disguise, increasing its liquidity.
The current stage is a reverse process, selling a large number of US dollar bonds for allocation of stocks, so as to recover the excess cash in the market. At this time, some students may have a question, saying that it does not sound difficult, right? In terms of the framework, it is easy. Now that the economy is overheating and the inflation rate is too high, the Fed should go to the market to recover excess liquidity, ah, and then increase the interest rate of the dollar, so that the overheating situation can continue. What is the difficulty? ?
The editor thinks that there are mainly two aspects. The first is that all macro data have a certain lag, including this policy and the US Federal Reserve's policy will also have a certain lag. When it was formulated, these data may have been the data a few months ago. When these policies are implemented, they may also affect the next few months, so there is a lag in the middle. The second is that this intensity may be very difficult to control. If it is too aggressive, it will push the market into a recession. Naturally, the results of this environmental analysis will affect the return of stocks.