8 macro factors affecting the economy in the 2020s
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The epidemic has changed the way companies operate, but executives must shift their attention from the epidemic to other global issues that will affect business development in the 2020s. 
Although the epidemic has always dominated the headlines, it is only one of the eight key factors that will reshape business in the next decade. Although the global epidemic will have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the business world, the huge impact of other changes in the macro business environment (such as oil prices, weakened international relations and climate change) has not disappeared.
High debt and high leverage, the gradual disintegration of WTO and other international alliances and the collapse of asset bubbles, these are important considerations
Executives will have to deal with many other challenges in the 2020s, but the resulting changes will create new business opportunities.
Gartner experts said: “The COVID-19 pandemic came at a time when the economy was already on the verge.” “The prosperity of the past decade came mainly from cheap financing and low-cost energy, which led to structural pressures such as highly leveraged debt, international The collapse of the alliance and similar asset price bubbles. These should be counted."
1. The global epidemic
The impact of the epidemic will largely depend on the duration of the global pandemic. If the time frame is controllable, it means that people will resume their pre-epidemic operations more quickly. For example, after 9/11, people returned to normal aviation order three years later. If the epidemic persists for a long time, it is more likely to have long-term social impacts, for example, affecting future eating habits.
The Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention encourages the use of public chopsticks and spoons or a meal-sharing system, and advocates not clinking glasses when toasting.
Think about how this epidemic will affect social behavior, such as personal hygiene and personal space regulations, social gatherings and family interactions, savings rates, and consumer buying habits.
2. Market collapse and recession
Although the epidemic has accelerated the market crash and subsequent recovery in 2020 like a catalyst, the reality is that the market is already fragile and unstable. In fact, in 2018 and 2019, half of the CEOs were preparing and preparing for an economic recession, which was different from the recession in 2002-2003 and 2008-2009.
Consider various business and economic growth curves, and test recovery plans for different possibilities. Companies are likely to see restructuring and trend changes in the capital market.
3. The technological boom fades
In the past decade, for companies seeking innovation and differentiation, the focus has been on developing emerging technologies that can open up new business models. In the next few years, this technological enthusiasm may disappear. Certain technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to be popular, but the development and promotion of more cutting-edge technologies such as quantum computing and blockchain may slow down.
Because the skeptical and prudent board of directors reduces their interest in unproven technologies, plans for strategic investments in new technologies will be rebalanced. Turn to thinking about plans to reorganize digital transformation in the current environment. For open experimentation and innovation using the latest technology, result orientation and pragmatism will become a trend.
Four, talent shortage
Although the global unemployment rate is rising, the shortage of key talents will still afflict executives. Although the epidemic has exacerbated unemployment and underemployment, it has not created a new demand for talent pool.
Therefore, we need to reconsider what types of skills will be needed in the world after the epidemic in the future, and start or increase skills training programs during the shutdown period. Also consider availability methods such as telecommuting or technology outsourcing.
5. Systemic distrust
Even before the epidemic, the trust of global consumers and citizens was at the lowest point in history. Now, closed borders, coupled with distrust of "others", and even former close trading partners, may also increase the sense of distance. However, in the long run, it is possible to inspire sympathy, common goals and cooperation in the fight against the epidemic.
At the same time, please consider whether consumers continue to be loyal to time-honored brands or switch to brands that can guarantee the supply of goods. This is a difficult decision that the CEO must make.
See if these actions have irreversibly changed people's attitudes towards the brand. More personalized contact (such as sending open, truthful, and understanding emails to customers) may help overcome mistrust.
Six, low production efficiency
Although the economy has grown rapidly in the past decade, productivity has grown slowly, and executives have lacked attention to efficiency and productivity. Outdated products and bureaucracy hinder the supply-side reform of enterprises. The epidemic may promote change. This requires executives to carefully study the operation of the organization.
Considering how increasing the proportion of remote office will affect production, operating costs will also increase, and a lot of redesign will be required to restore productivity before the epidemic.
Seven, oil price conflict
The current global economy depends on oil. Oil reached a price of US$150 per barrel when it peaked in 2008, but is now unexpectedly facing the opposite extreme. In March 2020, due to the dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the price per barrel fell to around US$20, and has been hovering around US$40 after the recovery. This may reset the basis of global competition in many industries and reshape the economy.
It is recommended to consider how fossil energy competes with new energy sources such as solar and wind energy, and how this will affect global aviation, chemistry, plastics and other aspects. In addition, please consider the possibility that excessive cuts in oil supply may cause prices to soar again.
8. Climate change
At the beginning of 2020, the control of climate change will be long-term and normalized. Although temporarily concealed by the epidemic, executives should assume that it will continue to affect companies in the next ten years.
Don't temporarily win the confusion of environmental improvement because of work stoppages and reduced travel, although you can use these results to get inspiration for how to make permanent adjustments. Keep in mind that major infrastructure projects aimed at mitigating climate change may be delayed by redirecting funds to stimulus plans, which requires the development of alternative carbon reduction strategies.
No matter how exhausted or exhausted their team becomes, executive leaders must never reduce the energy spent on scenario planning and re-planning changes. It is expected that these macro factors will appear repeatedly in the next two years. This work is critical to the short-term survival and long-term health of the company.