Nowadays prices rising, the majority of people, Shan Hu did not dare to buy a house, some scholars have come out to say "can not afford housing rent ah, abroad nor shall the Home Ownership ah." Some people even think that the listener has its reason, I smell it and disagree, prices go up, the rent can not get it, do house prices and rents can be separated streaking. Could not afford to eat rice drink Ginseng to eat it? ! !
Prices reflect supply and demand, but the rent is more a reflection of supply and demand; supply and demand prices are reflected attached speculative investment, and reflects the actual rent only reflect the true and living room does not have space to put between the two sides; that is compared to the rent prices more timely and accurate and comprehensive reflection of supply and demand.
Short period of time, prices can rent out (the real supply and demand) streaking, but in the long term, prices must return to rents, housing prices must return to the ghost walk rent this body shell.
Such as Shanghai, now the price of one million new homes, rent can only receive the 2000 / month, according to my formula to count the words, if the rent is not much change, this house is only value (2000/6 ‰) = 34 million.
I do financial work, master's degree, the face of the grim situation of housing prices is to buy early or late to buy, or simply do not buy to rent, often fall into relatively heavy, hesitant and thinking, and finally determined to use my expertise to counted out, either to give yourself a clear, they can come up with to give you a reference (just send over a text, I feel changed a bit, attached directly to the calculations over the better):
1, I assume that new house, newly renovated, complete with new appliances, common property, basically no inflation
2, assuming that the interest rate 0.0588 (maybe I should think about inflation, but inflation up, lending rates only 0.0588, and it will follow go up, they have a correlation, so considering, and felt the impact of inflation temporarily algorithm), housing price 600,000, assuming a new house after the hand can also be used for 68 years, no matter how appreciate, not every person can take advantage of resale prices and, to say the last person to take over also the people, they have to consider the cost-effectiveness ratios. Assuming that 68 years are letting out, or the relationship between rents and house prices had, until after the rent up, 68 years after the salvage value 80,000.
3, net rental income factor is the rent received after deducting fees and every 10 years of property and other necessary renovation costs borne by the landlord, assuming that the rate is 6% of the property rent, rent furnished decade worth spending five months, appliances must be equipped with depreciation, depreciation expense decade rent three months, the net income factor of 88%, taking into account the time value, assuming net income factor of 90%. The bear part of the landlord and the tenant is not undertaken, it is also a difference, it is to be included in the comparison, assuming that the rent received only 90% of the net proceeds from the landlord.
4, assuming that the impact of rent houses become old coefficient is 1-year / 150: is 10 years old house a new house a month, compared to less rent (10/150) = 0.0666, which means that fewer new homes than existing homes close the rent.
5. Conclusion: If the above conditions are met, Golden monthly income must reach 3625, the current monthly gross rents / prices ratio is now about to buy a house and rent it just cost-effective flat in the 6.05 ‰, if less than 6 ‰ significantly more economical to rent ! ! ! !
6, the calculation process is calculated from the monthly rent of rent, according to the present value of 0.0588 to Daosuan interest rate, the cumulative present value and then compared with the original 600,000 will know how much rent the house prices to recover given the prices.
7, is calculated as follows:
calculation of
Year Interest Rate collect rent present value of houses get older affecting the rent factor monthly net rental income
1 0.0588 36,729.3 0.9933 3241
2 0.0588 34,456.8 0.9867 3219
3 0.0588 32,323.3 0.9800 3197
4 0.0588 30,320.6 0.9733 3176
5 0.0588 28,440.6 0.9667 3154
6 0.0588 0.9600 26675.9 3132
7 0.0588 25019.5 0.9533 3110
8 0.0588 23464.8 0.9467 3089
9 0.0588 22005.7 0.9400 3067
10 0.0588 20636.2 0.9333 3045
11 0.0588 19350.9 0.9267 3023
12 0.0588 18144.8 0.9200 3002
13 0.0588 17013.0 0.9133 2980
14 0.0588 15950.9 0.9067 2958
15 0.0588 14954.3 0.9000 2936
16 0.0588 14019.2 0.8933 2915
17 0.0588 13141.8 0.8867 2893
18 0.0588 12318.7 0.8800 2871
19 0.0588 11546.4 0.8733 2849
20 0.0588 10821.9 0.8667 2828
21 0.0588 10142.3 0.8600 2806
22 0.0588 9504.8 0.8533 2784
23 0.0588 8906.8 0.8467 2762
24 0.0588 8346.0 0.8400 2741
25 0.0588 7819.9 0.8333 2719
26 0.0588 7326.6 0.8267 2697
27 0.0588 6863.9 0.8200 2675
28 0.0588 6430.0 0.8133 2654
29 0.0588 6023.1 0.8067 2632
30 0.0588 5641.6 0.8000 2610
31 0.0588 5283.9 0.7933 2588
32 0.0588 4948.5 0.7867 2567
33 0.0588 4634.1 0.7800 2545
34 0.0588 4339.4 0.7733 2523
35 0.0588 4063.0 0.7667 2501
36 0.0588 3804.0 0.7600 2480
37 0.0588 3561.3 0.7533 2458
38 0.0588 3333.7 0.7467 2436
39 0.0588 3120.5 0.7400 2414
40 0.0588 2920.6 0.7333 2393
41 0.0588 2733.4 0.7267 2371
42 0.0588 2557.9 0.7200 2349
43 0.0588 2393.5 0.7133 2327
44 0.0588 2239.4 0.7067 2306
45 0.0588 2095.1 0.7000 2284
46 0.0588 1959.9 0.6933 2262
47 0.0588 1833.3 0.6867 2240
48 0.0588 1714.6 0.6800 2219
49 0.0588 1603.5 0.6733 2197
50 0.0588 1499.5 0.6667 2175
51 0.0588 1402.1 0.6600 2153
52 0.0588 1310.8 0.6533 2132
53 0.0588 1225.4 0.6467 2110
54 0.0588 1145.4 0.6400 2088
55 0.0588 1070.5 0.6333 2066
56 0.0588 1000.4 0.6267 2045
57 0.0588 934.8 0.6200 2023
58 0.0588 873.4 0.6133 2001
59 0.0588 815.9 0.6067 1979
60 0.0588 762.2 0.6000 1958
61 0.0588 711.8 0.5933 1936
62 0.0588 664.8 0.5867 1914
63 0.0588 620.7 0.5800 1892
579.5 64 0.0588 0.5733 1871
0.0588 0.5667 540.9 65 1849
66 0.0588 0.5600 504.9 1827
67 471.2 0.5533 0.0588 1805
68 439.6 0.5467 0.0588 1784
68 80,000 0.0588 19720.8
final residual value of the total present value of 599,773.8
599,773.8 equal to about 600,000 prices, indicating equal to the present value , indicating that monthly income to rent 3625 to 600,000 housing prices make it back, indicating the proportion was just about to buy a house and renting cost-effective flat in the 6.05 ‰, if less than 6 ‰ significantly more economical to rent! ! ! !
Shanghai Beijing's many houses did not reach the proportion of 6.05 ‰, indicating that housing prices artificially high, indicating that prices have been away from the specter of rent this body, and soon it will return to the shell to the inside of
the above article is a refutation of the theory of rising house prices, postponed to buy a house for students burst of us posted ah! ! ! ! ! !
For details see:
http://blog.focus.cn/group/blogforum_detail.php?blog_id=2607256&msg_id=48566077
Prices reflect supply and demand, but the rent is more a reflection of supply and demand; supply and demand prices are reflected attached speculative investment, and reflects the actual rent only reflect the true and living room does not have space to put between the two sides; that is compared to the rent prices more timely and accurate and comprehensive reflection of supply and demand.
Short period of time, prices can rent out (the real supply and demand) streaking, but in the long term, prices must return to rents, housing prices must return to the ghost walk rent this body shell.
Such as Shanghai, now the price of one million new homes, rent can only receive the 2000 / month, according to my formula to count the words, if the rent is not much change, this house is only value (2000/6 ‰) = 34 million.
I do financial work, master's degree, the face of the grim situation of housing prices is to buy early or late to buy, or simply do not buy to rent, often fall into relatively heavy, hesitant and thinking, and finally determined to use my expertise to counted out, either to give yourself a clear, they can come up with to give you a reference (just send over a text, I feel changed a bit, attached directly to the calculations over the better):
1, I assume that new house, newly renovated, complete with new appliances, common property, basically no inflation
2, assuming that the interest rate 0.0588 (maybe I should think about inflation, but inflation up, lending rates only 0.0588, and it will follow go up, they have a correlation, so considering, and felt the impact of inflation temporarily algorithm), housing price 600,000, assuming a new house after the hand can also be used for 68 years, no matter how appreciate, not every person can take advantage of resale prices and, to say the last person to take over also the people, they have to consider the cost-effectiveness ratios. Assuming that 68 years are letting out, or the relationship between rents and house prices had, until after the rent up, 68 years after the salvage value 80,000.
3, net rental income factor is the rent received after deducting fees and every 10 years of property and other necessary renovation costs borne by the landlord, assuming that the rate is 6% of the property rent, rent furnished decade worth spending five months, appliances must be equipped with depreciation, depreciation expense decade rent three months, the net income factor of 88%, taking into account the time value, assuming net income factor of 90%. The bear part of the landlord and the tenant is not undertaken, it is also a difference, it is to be included in the comparison, assuming that the rent received only 90% of the net proceeds from the landlord.
4, assuming that the impact of rent houses become old coefficient is 1-year / 150: is 10 years old house a new house a month, compared to less rent (10/150) = 0.0666, which means that fewer new homes than existing homes close the rent.
5. Conclusion: If the above conditions are met, Golden monthly income must reach 3625, the current monthly gross rents / prices ratio is now about to buy a house and rent it just cost-effective flat in the 6.05 ‰, if less than 6 ‰ significantly more economical to rent ! ! ! !
6, the calculation process is calculated from the monthly rent of rent, according to the present value of 0.0588 to Daosuan interest rate, the cumulative present value and then compared with the original 600,000 will know how much rent the house prices to recover given the prices.
7, is calculated as follows:
calculation of
Year Interest Rate collect rent present value of houses get older affecting the rent factor monthly net rental income
1 0.0588 36,729.3 0.9933 3241
2 0.0588 34,456.8 0.9867 3219
3 0.0588 32,323.3 0.9800 3197
4 0.0588 30,320.6 0.9733 3176
5 0.0588 28,440.6 0.9667 3154
6 0.0588 0.9600 26675.9 3132
7 0.0588 25019.5 0.9533 3110
8 0.0588 23464.8 0.9467 3089
9 0.0588 22005.7 0.9400 3067
10 0.0588 20636.2 0.9333 3045
11 0.0588 19350.9 0.9267 3023
12 0.0588 18144.8 0.9200 3002
13 0.0588 17013.0 0.9133 2980
14 0.0588 15950.9 0.9067 2958
15 0.0588 14954.3 0.9000 2936
16 0.0588 14019.2 0.8933 2915
17 0.0588 13141.8 0.8867 2893
18 0.0588 12318.7 0.8800 2871
19 0.0588 11546.4 0.8733 2849
20 0.0588 10821.9 0.8667 2828
21 0.0588 10142.3 0.8600 2806
22 0.0588 9504.8 0.8533 2784
23 0.0588 8906.8 0.8467 2762
24 0.0588 8346.0 0.8400 2741
25 0.0588 7819.9 0.8333 2719
26 0.0588 7326.6 0.8267 2697
27 0.0588 6863.9 0.8200 2675
28 0.0588 6430.0 0.8133 2654
29 0.0588 6023.1 0.8067 2632
30 0.0588 5641.6 0.8000 2610
31 0.0588 5283.9 0.7933 2588
32 0.0588 4948.5 0.7867 2567
33 0.0588 4634.1 0.7800 2545
34 0.0588 4339.4 0.7733 2523
35 0.0588 4063.0 0.7667 2501
36 0.0588 3804.0 0.7600 2480
37 0.0588 3561.3 0.7533 2458
38 0.0588 3333.7 0.7467 2436
39 0.0588 3120.5 0.7400 2414
40 0.0588 2920.6 0.7333 2393
41 0.0588 2733.4 0.7267 2371
42 0.0588 2557.9 0.7200 2349
43 0.0588 2393.5 0.7133 2327
44 0.0588 2239.4 0.7067 2306
45 0.0588 2095.1 0.7000 2284
46 0.0588 1959.9 0.6933 2262
47 0.0588 1833.3 0.6867 2240
48 0.0588 1714.6 0.6800 2219
49 0.0588 1603.5 0.6733 2197
50 0.0588 1499.5 0.6667 2175
51 0.0588 1402.1 0.6600 2153
52 0.0588 1310.8 0.6533 2132
53 0.0588 1225.4 0.6467 2110
54 0.0588 1145.4 0.6400 2088
55 0.0588 1070.5 0.6333 2066
56 0.0588 1000.4 0.6267 2045
57 0.0588 934.8 0.6200 2023
58 0.0588 873.4 0.6133 2001
59 0.0588 815.9 0.6067 1979
60 0.0588 762.2 0.6000 1958
61 0.0588 711.8 0.5933 1936
62 0.0588 664.8 0.5867 1914
63 0.0588 620.7 0.5800 1892
579.5 64 0.0588 0.5733 1871
0.0588 0.5667 540.9 65 1849
66 0.0588 0.5600 504.9 1827
67 471.2 0.5533 0.0588 1805
68 439.6 0.5467 0.0588 1784
68 80,000 0.0588 19720.8
final residual value of the total present value of 599,773.8
599,773.8 equal to about 600,000 prices, indicating equal to the present value , indicating that monthly income to rent 3625 to 600,000 housing prices make it back, indicating the proportion was just about to buy a house and renting cost-effective flat in the 6.05 ‰, if less than 6 ‰ significantly more economical to rent! ! ! !
Shanghai Beijing's many houses did not reach the proportion of 6.05 ‰, indicating that housing prices artificially high, indicating that prices have been away from the specter of rent this body, and soon it will return to the shell to the inside of
the above article is a refutation of the theory of rising house prices, postponed to buy a house for students burst of us posted ah! ! ! ! ! !
For details see:
http://blog.focus.cn/group/blogforum_detail.php?blog_id=2607256&msg_id=48566077
