What to think enterprises to cope with the epidemic? Rational analysis of the current situation through a new type of pneumonia epidemic data

December 2019 No. 8 Wuhan first case of novel coronavirus pneumonia. Early diagnosis of epidemic cases, mostly from Wuhan South China seafood market, after investigation, the market sold the virus from wild animals. 2020 at 8:00 on February 5, the epidemic led to the total number of deaths to 491 people, confirmed the number of 24363 people.

To control the outbreak relevant government departments to act quickly. Wuhan City in 2020, January 23 (twelfth lunar month 29) "closed city", 2020 January 25 (Chinese New Year) in Hubei and more "closed city." At the same time the provinces and cities are different degree of precautionary measures, we have released a number of documents for the outbreak of the State Council notice, to protect the epidemic control work. To ensure the safety of personnel, to extend Spring Festival holiday period to February 2, and the field staff to return to work to be self-segregation.

The outbreak of all walks of life have caused no small influence and pressure, while the enterprise management, business model presents new challenges. As big data analytics industry's leading companies, Wing Hung technological response to the call, arrange to work from home, while references to the authority of the national data, objective and rational analysis of the current situation of the epidemic and future trends from multiple perspectives, to provide a reference for the community.

1, the number of diagnosed nationwide plague Rapid Growth

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From a national epidemic confirmed / probable cumulative trends can be seen that the number of confirmed No fault type upward trend, it can be speculated that the spread of the epidemic has been initially put under control. Data from the national point of view the overall situation is still not optimistic about the current total number of the country to be seen still continue to climb, peaking suspected crowd, but there may be repeated, can not be taken lightly.

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From the graph we can see that the number of new diagnosed the country, though still in a growth trend, but the growth trend has been gradually flat. The national new 5 February 3887 confirmed people. In recent days the number of new suspected gradually decline, but there is rising trend, on the whole basic preliminary control. Suspected cases will be a few days earlier than the confirmed cases were found, through January 25, January 27 suspected cases peak of follow-up observation, can be judged suspected cases reached a peak will cause a sudden increase in the number of follow-up a few days confirmed cases. January 31 suspected cases and recently reached a peak, although the number of suspected January 31 to February 2 gradually decline, but subsequent days confirmed cases may still have a high peak. January 25, January 27, suspected cases of January 31 and February 3 peak flow may be due to the emergence of the Spring Festival staff.

2, Hubei rising number of people diagnosed

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Hubei Province is still concentrated epidemic-prone areas of the country, the number of new diagnosed been on an upward trend.

3、武汉疫情呈现加重趋势
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从上图数据我们可以看到,在1月28日至1月30日,疫情刚刚有所缓和的武汉,新增确诊病例又开始上升,疫情呈现出了加重的趋势。虽然武汉“封城”最大化的保证了传播源的集中管理,但城内的疫情防疫治疗工作仍刻不容缓,武汉火神山医院已于2月4日已经投入使用,编设床位1000张,武汉雷神山医院也将于2月5日投入使用,编设床位1600张,这些措施能在一定程度上缓和当地的疫情。

4、非湖北地区新增确诊人数速度已开始下降

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非湖北地区的新增确诊人数自1月31日起增加速度开始放缓,已呈下降趋势。说明武汉和其他地区的“封城”以及其他防控措施对抑制全国疫情的蔓延起到了重要的作用。

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通过非湖北疫情死亡率跟治愈率对比图我们可以看到,自1月28日起,治愈率首次高于死亡率,且后续疫情死亡率连续下降,疫情治愈率不断升高。说明了非湖北地区的疫情已逐渐被控制,这坚定了我们打败疫情的信念。

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每日新增确诊数量及其变化趋势图,方块大小的变化代表了每日各地确诊数量的变化,颜色的变化代表了与前一日相比的数量变化

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中国病例表展示了全国各疫区省市的确诊总人数、治愈总人数以及死亡总人数

总结

1、虽然确诊人数的绝对量在增加,但新增确诊人数、疑似病例等多项指标连日下降和持平,表明整个疫情的扩散速度在减缓。今后几天,由于疑似人员总量的存在,确诊人数可能出现短期向上,但总体趋势仍大概率向下回落。

2、死亡率一直下降,首先离不开政府人员、医务工作人员的日夜不懈努力以及全国人民的大力支持。存量病人确诊速度的提升也使死亡率更接近真实情况。

3、绝对确诊数仍在上升,并没有出现拐点,表明疫情战役还处于最艰难的僵持阶段,还不到放松警惕的阶段。

4、从新增病例来看,除湖北外全国其他省份已经出现人数下降的情况了,说明省外疫情控制很好;但武汉等地确诊人数的不断上升有扩散到湖北其他地区的迹象,仍需与疫情努力斗争。

关于企业应对疫情的思考:

The outbreak appears huge impact on all walks of life are produced at the same time the epidemic on business models and management models and the ability to cope with risks presented a severe test. Wing Hung 2B science and technology as a leading software companies on how to deal with the challenges in the response to the outbreak was thinking process:

1, the epidemic in the next period of time will always exist (estimated as short as 2-4 months or as long as 3-6 months). In view of this situation of enterprises and the development of the epidemic coexistence of business strategy, and develop coping strategies for different states of progress of the pandemic (optimistic, pessimistic).

2, ensure the safety of employees, ensure business security under the premise to ensure employee safety. Formulated epidemic state security measures and remotely operating modes, while strengthening capacity to ensure that customers use the online service Wing Hung system safe and reliable.

3, explore and think about the impact of the epidemic on business management and business model. The development of the epidemic will generate new opportunities and new habits at the same time have a huge impact on various industries. Epidemic forcing people to accept and use various online services to the mode previously reluctant to try, after the impact of the epidemic will continue to transform some of the industry's business model.

4, despite the epidemic disrupted some of the work plan established companies, but still firm Wing Hung execute the company's overall business strategy. Only confidence in the firm's business development, in a crisis exercise to maintain long-term competitiveness.

Note: The data source of national and provincial health health committee, all of the above data analysis, map production using Yonghong Desktop.

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