Sensitivity analysis and risk analysis

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Sensitivity analysis

When the main factors of the construction project changes, changes in the degree of economic efficiency, in order to determine the extent of the impact of these factors on the economic goals

Sensitivity analysis program

1. That objective indicators to determine the economic analysis

2. Select the uncertainty, the magnitude of change set

3. Calculate the degree of influence

4. Looking sensitive factor

Univariate sensitivity analysis

Once only consider a change of influence factors, other factors remain unchanged

• Sensitivity Analysis Table

• Sensitivity analysis chart

• Sensitivity coefficients

Economic Risk Analysis

The overall value of the project caused by random factors deviate from the expected value

Cause: the assumed value of the current deviation

Risk Management

• Risk Identification

• Risk estimates

• Risk Assessment

• Risk Response

• Risk Decision

Risk factors affecting the economic benefits of the project to identify

• Project income risk

• Project construction risk

• Financing risks

• Policy risks

• Operating costs risk

• The construction period risks

Risk estimation:

• Discrete probability distribution

  Influences of random changes in the risk factors for the occurrence of the economic effects of the program

• Continuous probability distribution

• Decision Tree

  Indicators of various factors known to affect the state and its probability, using decision networks to describe the risk of decision-making problems

• Monte Carlo simulation

  To probability and statistics based on the principle, the formation process simulation of things, in order to achieve understanding of the method and its variation characteristic of things. The premise of this approach is the assumption that uncertainties can be used to describe the probability distribution

1. By sensitivity analysis to determine the random variable

2. The probability distribution of random variables constructed model

3. Extracting the random number for each input random variables

4. The pits random number into each of the input sample values ​​of the random variable

5. The sample values ​​consisting of a set of basic data project evaluation

6. The evaluation index value calculated based data

7. The resulting probability expectations finishing simulation evaluation results, variance, standard deviation and its probability distribution and cumulative probability, plotted cumulative probability distribution, calculate the project is feasible or not feasible

Risk Assessment

• Breakeven point

  The lower the balance, the smaller the project risks

• Sensitivity coefficients

  The sensitivity coefficient and increase project impact

• Expectation and variance

  The larger the variance of economic goals, the greater the risk of the project