" On the survival rate of patients with prostate cancer, the纽约比约克almost twice as this can be described as big news, but it is also a major mistake. Despite great differences in survival, but the United States and the United Kingdom prostate cancer mortality is basically the same. survival rates vary greatly and the mortality rate is basically the same, is this why? the answer is, on cancer screening, the differences in survival and mortality does not matter. in fact, over the past 50 years, the majority of solid tumors 5-year survival rate of patients do not have any correlation with mortality, for two reasons. "
Risk Perception
Author: [Germany] Gerd Jiren Ze (Gerd Gigerenzer)
Press: CITIC Publishing House
Subtitle: How accurate decision-making
Original name: Risk Savvy
Translator: Wang Jinkang
Published: 2019-5-1
Pages: 315
Price: 59.00
Binding: Hardcover
ISBN: 9787521701623
01
—
The writer is a social psychologist, stressed that the human brain is not sensitive to the probability, such as easy to overestimate the probability of rare events and underestimate the incidence of common events, prone to error probability estimate clinic medical profession, schools should strengthen the education of probability and risk , the right way, then students can understand the probability of industry issues.
Overestimate the probability of rare events is a typical case of travel choice Americans after 911: 911 because of fear after the crash, Americans drove the sharp rise in the number of fatal accidents result of new ground transportation within about half a year 911.
The book is the theme of risk, the authors determined the risk and uncertainty into two categories, determined that the risk can be handled with logic and probability, must rely on uncertain risk of intuition and experience. This classification and response measures failed to convince me.
I feel the focus of the book or reading a variety of common errors of interpretation of probability, the probability of errors, especially the medical industry. For example, HIV testing positive, according to different detection methods, the actual probability of AIDS is really between 67% -96%, not 100%, and there may be also tested negative AIDS.
Also, for example breast X-ray detection of breast cancer, breast cancer is indeed the probability, under the given conditions author, in fact, only 10%.
Also, prostate cancer screening, early prostate cancer can find many, because most of these cancers develop slowly, so new cases of prostate cancer can lead to 5-year survival rate of this disease increase, but look at the overall cancer death rate did not change.
The probability of response to a variety of common errors, the author gives a method I think the most important thing is two-fold:
1: ask risks rather than just look at the absolute value of the relative value, such as the incidence of rare diseases, increased 100% to see the relative value very scary, in fact, look at the absolute value or rare diseases;
2: Use the information box that lists the consequences and do not do, such as prostate cancer screening, the benefits of doing harm, not benefit harm.
The book also has a lot of space talked about the financial sector, the authors believe that the financial sector should not appear institution too big to fail, the average person might consider financing 1 / N of the program is to put the money in the N basket, such as stocks, bonds , each property 1/3, should not buy do not understand financial products.
4 stars overall assessment, yes.
02
—
The following are some of the content of the book excerpt:
1: Literacy is a citizen of a democratic society and cultural skills necessary. But we will only read and write is not enough to properly cognitive basic viability of risks is needed in our modern technological society. Today, advances in technology, indispensable perceived risk of human capabilities, as our literacy. There is no risk of cognitive ability, your health and wealth may be at risk, you may also fall into unrealistic fears and fantasies. P4
2: Risk perception refers not only to identify known risks, but also the risk that the identification of unknown and unpredictable. Perceived Risk and risk aversion different. No risk, there would be no innovation of fun, courage will be gone. Perceived risk does not mean desperate, desperate, without a certain degree of caution, humans may already extinct. P5
3: probability in the end refers to the time zone or the number of days in fact, meteorologists really mean that, in the days of publication of this weather forecast, there is 30% of the number of days it will rain?. P6
4: fear of contraceptives repeated in the UK, continues to this day. To completely eliminate it, better not rely on drugs or more complex technology abortion, but can correct perceived risk of young men and women. To explain to young people the difference between relative risk (100%) and absolute risk (in 7000), not a difficult task. However, to date, the reporters still use exaggerated figures caused panic in the public year after year. P11
5: Before the "September 11" incident, the number of fatal accidents was close to five-year average before (see Figure 1-2 baseline). But a year after the "9.11" incident, the number of fatal traffic accidents occur each month in excess of the baseline, and most of them are higher than the previous five years the highest value. A total of about 1,600 Americans are killed to avoid the risk of flying on the road. P13
6: we are afraid of rare nuclear accident, but coal plants are not afraid of pollution will slowly lead to human death. We heard swine flu epidemic could cause the death of thousands of people predicted, will be fear-ridden, although such predictions have never come true. Every year, people die from the common flu will be global, but few people worry about that. P16
7: I think the contrary, human beings are not stupid, the real problem is that our education system there is a blind spot in their ability to cultivate people's perception of risk. We teach children to learn a variety of uncertainties mathematics - geometry and trigonometric functions, but does not teach them how to understand the uncertainty of how the use of statistical thinking. We teach children to biology, but did not teach them about the psychology of fear and desire. P19
8: To correctly perceived risk, the pursuit of uncertainty is the biggest obstacle. Although some things we know, but we must be clear there are some things we can not know. We will almost certainly return of Halley's Comet in 2062, but can not predict natural disasters and the stock market crash. Seismologist Charles Richter said, "Only a fool, a liar posing as experts and people would predict earthquakes," Richter scale is named after him. P27
9: When making decisions, we need the following two sets thinking tool: • Risk: If the risk is known, wants to make an informed decision, you need is logical thinking and statistical thinking. · Uncertainty: if some risk is unknown, you want to make an informed decision, you need intuition and wisdom rule of thumb. P30
10: There is an important fact that is often overlooked, not just the probability of a face, but three faces: frequency, physical design and credibility. These three characteristics have been preserved to this day. P32
11:? These features are important to you to play probability midnight color may not be important, but becomes critical when it comes to modern technology. The probability of a major nuclear power plant accident, according to the number of accidents before, the credibility of the physical design of nuclear power plants or expert calculated that one of these three methods can be used, also can be mixed, but the results may be different. P33
12: The number of nuclear power plant accident calculation is very simple, but the tendency of nuclear power plant design and because of the accident is difficult to determine, but also because of the credibility of the expert's position and investors completely different. Therefore, when we hear or probability of any other nuclear leakage risk, be sure to ask how they are calculated. P33
13: At present, we can see two risk communication tool: the frequency of use, rather than the probability of occurrence of a single event; the use of absolute risk rather than relative risk. P34
14: You can see in Figure 2-1, many years later, there are still a lot of people do not know the results of an AIDS test may be wrong, so many people's lives have been destroyed by this false alarm. When HIV testing has just come out, Florida has 22 blood donors were told their ELISA results were positive, seven of whom chose to commit suicide without knowing whether the result is true situation. P43
15: turkey unanticipated own tragic ending, which experts failed to predict the financial crisis has similarities. Both use the model might work in the short term, but did not predict the looming disaster. Risk assessment of the US housing market is mainly based on historical data as well as the smooth Laplace Theorem similar model, because prices have been higher, so the risk seems to be reduced. Before the subprime crisis, people's confidence index reached the highest point in history. P48
16: Some have criticized the bank's operating mode is similar to the casino, if this is true enough, as the former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said, "If the banks really like a casino, that risk is at least predictable!". However, the real world in which the investment bank has been changing, full of uncertainty, not everyone can be trusted, accidents can happen at any time. P49
17: Similar to national aviation incident reporting system and learning system, basically does not exist in the medical field. Therefore, the patient can not be in the same category in the safety factor safety factor and passenger hospital on the plane, which is a serious problem. According to the US Institute of Medicine estimates that US hospitals each year 44,000 to 9.8 million patients died due to medical errors, and some errors in fact be avoided. P64
18: checklists not only save lives, but without additional technical equipment, cost very little. One might think that after all these years, and now every hospital certainly are using checklists to improve the safety of medical treatment of patients. Not so, checklists for hospital still the exception rather than the guidelines. When asked ordinary doctor or nurse when we can staff a checklist, general Ivanov Lancaster reluctantly said: "At the current rate of adoption, it is impossible to achieve." P67
19: In Switzerland, the average woman's hysterectomy rate was 16%, but this proportion was only 10% in the doctor's wife or female doctors. Doctors are very afraid of lawsuits in the United States every three women will have a hysterectomy done, because of the specific circumstances in different regions and different. Each year, about 600,000 American women will do a hysterectomy, most people do not have clinical manifestations, half of the patients also simultaneously removed the ovaries, P73
20: The doctor knew his mother would not prosecute him, but I might. Remember the following rule of thumb is this: Do not ask him what the doctor advice you can give, and to ask if the patient is his mother, brother or child, how he would do. P79
21: Overall, bank analysts underestimated the volatility of the stock market and exchange rates, one reason is that they use a mathematical model. These models all risks are difficult to predict financial markets are as predictable, and therefore has been unable to make the right predictions about large fluctuations, but only under stable market conditions, that is, the trend of the year next year to continue to the next case, the bank's forecast was more accurate. P110
22: Banking analysts and asset managers responsible for managing global funds, they can predict the currency and stocks trend then the answer is no?. But customers prefer to believe they can do it, and they try to make people continue to have this illusion. P111
23: the reasons therefore, complex products are often complex problems caused by the financial crisis, rather than the solution. People can sell these products to potential buyers impressed, or that they did not dare admit that they do not understand the product. P127
24: There is a simple rule of thumb can solve this problem, but we need the courage to admit their ignorance: Do not buy they do not understand financial products. P127
25: If you want to win the next higher number, then you should: make your professional opponents to think, rather than letting them follow their intuition. The basic principle is this: professional skills is an unconscious wisdom, as long as the professional players of the conscious mind is disturbed, his performance is likely to deteriorate. Germany's Gerd Muller retired players was one of the highest scoring player in World Cup history, he said: "If you start thinking, then you would lose." P168
26: My experience is that the same can not open the menu ordering. If this is an upscale restaurant, I would use this rule of thumb: ask the waiter if he is a guest, What shall be here tonight P169?
27: We can also assume that there are 100 women, then rounding it, the problem will become more simple: 100 women with breast cancer have one; · The women's breast cancer test results may be positive ; · in the other 99 unaffected women, nine individual test results were positive. P201
28: At present, the health care system, there are three time bomb ticking. The doctor did not make every effort to serve patients, because they: (1) to take defensive medical care behavior (self-protection, Self-Defense); (2) do not understand health statistics (lack of knowledge of mathematics, Innumeracy); (3) the pursuit of interests rather than ethics (conflict of interest, ConflictsofInterest) P218
29: If the doctor is not affected by SIC syndrome, and well-informed, they will tell you the following facts: In 16 studies, the study including 18 million adults (younger than 65 years old), the purpose of study investigate whether routine physical examination reduces cancer mortality, cardiovascular mortality or total mortality. The results show that did not, in addition, physical examination does not reduce the incidence. P226
30: Cochran Library is one of the best ways to query the results of medical research. The library belongs to the non-profit organization, which summarizes thousands of methods of treating diseases. Residents of Australia, Ireland, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom and many other countries due to receive funding or government health organizations in their countries, are free to use this library. P227
31: Just in terms of survival of prostate cancer patients, which can be described 纽约比约克 almost twice as big news, but it is also a major error. Despite great differences in survival, but the United States and the United Kingdom prostate cancer mortality is basically the same. Survival rates vary greatly and the mortality rate is basically the same, is this why? The answer is, on cancer screening, the differences in survival and mortality does not matter. In fact, over the past 50 years, the 5-year survival rate of most solid tumors are not any correlation with mortality, for two reasons. P230
32:? Reduce the number of deaths from any cause answer is no. In 10 years, the number of people who died without screening accounted for 1/5, insist on the number of people who do the screening of those who died also accounted for 1/5. In short, there is no evidence that early detection of cancer can save lives, it has neither reduced prostate cancer mortality, but also did not reduce overall mortality. P237
33: doing the breast X-ray examination of 1000 women, in approximately 100 cases of misdiagnosis. The woman was misdiagnosed after a false alarm, they fear lingering for months, there will be sleep disorders, relationships with family and friends will also be affected. Those who suffer from non-growing cancers, or cancers grow slowly, lifetime will not have any clinical symptoms, are often forced to breast cancer surgery, breast surgery, chemotherapy or other treatments for them no benefit, this It will only reduce their quality of life. P250
34: turkey illusion that the risk can be calculated, but it is not. In Chapter 5, we talked about, the following three conditions are satisfied that the risk can be calculated: • Low uncertainty: the world is stable and predictable; · fewer alternatives: no more risk factors to be assessed; · can obtaining an evaluation massive data required for each alternative. In investment banking, these three conditions are not satisfied, P276
35: too big to not failing institutions should not appear in a free market. There is a simple rule to avoid this situation, namely: to ensure that dedication and have difficulty with when. There are several ways to ensure that banks no longer rely on the government or the taxpayer's "blood transfusion": reduce the size of banks and reduce the association between banks, investment banks or banks with general clearly distinguished. In this way, the investment bank will be due to their dangerous behavior at risk of bankruptcy. P282
36: fear of risk is human nature, and the media took advantage of this instinct we worry about things that are not worth mentioning. Therefore, with regard to media coverage of the risk, I personally use a rule is: The more media hype of certain health risks, the less risk you really face. P290
37: I designed risks curriculum includes three thematic and three kinds of skills. Three topics include: · the ability to identify health risks; · ability to identify financial risks; · the ability to recognize the risk of digital media. Three kinds of skills include: · statistical thinking; · The rule of thumb; · Risk psychology. P297
The End
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