"China's database market has entered a critical stage, and 2024 may be a watershed!"

"Currently, the number of domestic database products is close to 300. Do we really need so many databases?" Faced with this problem, Huawei Cloud Database Business CTO Su Guangniu gave his opinion without hesitation:

"Not only the Chinese market, but also globally, there is no need for so many commercial databases."

He further predicted that with the natural elimination of the market, domestic database vendors may be reduced to about 10 in the next three to five years, including both cloud service providers and independent database vendors.

China’s database market: behind the unusual popularity

Under normal circumstances, in a mature market like database, after decades of development, the market growth rate should gradually level off. However, contrary to expectations, after the market size exceeded 100 billion US dollars, it still showed strong growth momentum.

According to Gartner data, the global database market growth rate will reach 14.4% in 2022, with the market size reaching US$91 billion. This growth rate is rated as "unprecedented" in the industry. Gartner predicts that the market size will exceed US$100 billion by 2023, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 16.8%. If calculated based on this growth rate, the global database market will exceed US$203.6 billion by 2027, far exceeding the 4.3% expected growth rate of the entire IT market.

Especially in China, the rapid development trajectory of the database market from the early days of "Four Golden Flowers" to today's hundreds of schools of thought has attracted much attention. One of the core reasons is that the database is a high-speed growth track. The rapid growth is mainly attributed to the rise of cloud computing and the in-depth application of artificial intelligence by enterprises. The deeper driving force is that the core position of data in various industries has become increasingly prominent, and new, diverse, and unstructured data needs have given rise to the birth of more database products.

The unusual popularity of China's database market stems from its unique market background. Su Guangniu pointed out that in the past ten years or so, my country's databases have not penetrated deeply into the core system. Until around 2015, as market participants began to realize the hidden opportunities, the database industry ushered in rounds of entrepreneurial boom and development waves. He emphasized that this kind of market fluctuation is not disorderly growth, but a true response to market and technical needs. It is also a reflection of the accumulation of domestic database talents and technology.

Looking forward to 2024: A watershed moment for China’s database market

Su Guangniu conducted an in-depth analysis of the current development status of domestic databases and the focus of the market.

He foresees that 2024 will become a decisive turning point for China's database market, marking a major transition from the scattered trial stage to the systematic practical application stage. At this turning point, database vendors and products that can truly meet customer needs and solve practical challenges will begin to emerge and stand out.

He emphasized that in the face of current and future market development, domestic database manufacturers will face the dual challenges of batch replication and operation and maintenance. This is not only a symbol of the transition from the trial and experimental stage to real application and widespread deployment, but also a severe test of the manufacturer's comprehensive capabilities. He pointed out that in the past few years, although many companies have begun to try to adopt domestic database solutions, most of these attempts are still in their infancy. With the increasing market demand, especially in industries such as banking with huge amounts of data and complex systems, effective batch replication and operation and maintenance management have become crucial.

He further elaborated that the market focus has shifted from experimental single business applications to how to effectively carry out large-scale replication and optimized operation and maintenance management. Taking large banks such as ICBC as an example, he explained that these institutions' demands for databases go beyond technical compatibility and performance, and pay more attention to the efficiency of operation and maintenance management in the context of large data volumes and complex systems.

In addition, Su Guangniu also pointed out that for domestic database manufacturers, continuous technological innovation and rapid response to market demand are crucial. He emphasized that an outstanding database solution not only requires continuous innovation at the technical level, but also must be able to effectively meet the practical needs of customers in batch replication and operation and maintenance management. This is not only a reflection of technical strength, but also a reflection of service level.

True independence and controllability do not lie in the pursuit of absolute purity of code

Although reliance on open source technology can accelerate product development and technology iteration, over-reliance may limit the space for independent innovation. How to find a balance between reference and innovation and enhance the core competitiveness of domestic databases is the key to industry development.

Su Guangniu put forward a unique insight into this. "Independence and controllability" are not only reflected in the number of code changes, but also in the deep understanding of technology and the true ability to control. He vividly pointed out: "Only when the tide goes out do you know who is swimming naked."

According to market data analysis, most database products are built on open source technology, with necessary enhancements or adjustments. The key is whether the company can maintain technical independence and the ability to respond flexibly when faced with major changes such as MySQL licensing changes or PostgreSQL architecture adjustments.

Su Guangniu believes that true independence and controllability do not lie in the pursuit of absolute purity of code, but in how companies can rationally learn from and innovate open source technology on the basis of respecting open source protocols such as GPL or BSD.

At the same time, he proposed an objective evaluation method—quantitatively evaluating the degree of product development through code similarity analysis. For enterprises, the key is to focus on the long-term support of the database kernel and the developer's technology evolution capabilities. Su Guangniu reminded that maintaining and developing a database product based on open source technology requires continuous resource investment. This is not something that any small team can easily achieve. This is also an aspect that enterprises should take seriously.

The development paths of GaussDB and PostgreSQL are quite different

Issues of widespread concern in the industry: China's contribution to the PostgreSQL open source project is relatively limited, and there is a lack of Chinese people and companies on the list of global core contributors. In response, Su Guangniu responded that the small contribution may be due to differences in ecosystems and licenses. He explained that innovating based on open source projects but not keeping up with the original community will make integrating new features extremely complicated.

GaussDB drew on the architecture of PGXC in the early days, but the development paths of GaussDB and PostgreSQL have been very different, and its contribution to PostgreSQL has lost its practical significance. Su Guangniu clearly pointed out that the workload required to keep updated with PostgreSQL is far more than developing a new branch, because many basic protocols and processing mechanisms have been completely changed.

Regarding the discussion on the contribution rate of Chinese databases, Su Guangniu mentioned that in addition to the differentiation of development paths, the lack of voice in the open source community is also a major factor. Huawei has done a lot of optimization on public cloud MySQL, but integrating it into MySQL is extremely difficult. He emphasized that foundations behind open source software are often outside domestic control, which poses a security challenge.

Su Guangniu pointed out that in order to evolve independently and meet customer needs, domestic database vendors, whether based on PostgreSQL or MySQL, must maintain their own independent branches, which not only requires huge human resources, but also needs to keep pace with the open source community. He believes that domestic database companies should have clear development directions and manpower investment strategies.

When talking about the development and reconstruction of domestic databases, Su Guangniu admitted that Huawei has strict management of open source software and all open source components need to be removed to comply with internal trust requirements.

Finally, Su Guangniu expressed Huawei's strong confidence in its database products. He proposed that the R&D ratio of a product can be verified through tool scanning and expert review. He emphasized that Huawei is absolutely confident in this regard and that such frankness and honesty are an important part of its corporate culture.

Market Insights and Customer Concerns: A Comprehensive Consideration of Strength and Trust

Market feedback is direct and candid, and customer concerns often reflect underlying issues across the industry.

In the past year (2023), Su Guangniu visited hundreds of customers and received some enlightening and profound feedback. He mentioned that a representative from a city commercial bank discussed a key concern with him in Shanghai: when enterprises choose database products, the biggest concern is not the limitations of Oracle use, but the worry that the selected database will not be sustainable due to the unsustainable business model. And sudden collapse will affect the business continuity of the enterprise.

This concern not only reflects concerns about product stability, but also reflects concerns about the uncertainty of future development. While domestic databases are pursuing technological innovation, they also need to bring stability and trustworthiness to the market.

Su Guangniu also talked about another bank's insight that current open source database products, whether MySQL or PostgreSQL, cannot meet its needs for specific scenarios at the technical level. This shows that the market has urgent demand for the customization and optimization of database products.

When talking about customer preferences, Su Guangniu found that some customers prefer to keep MySQL simple. They pay more attention to cost-effectiveness and expect to choose cost-effective products through national policies. At the same time, other forward-looking enterprises pay more attention to the convenience of database operation and maintenance and future application development, rather than just focusing on performance.

These insights reveal the diversity and complexity of demand in the Chinese database market. Su Guangniu pointed out that the numerous database options on the market have brought difficulties in selection and challenges in resource investment for enterprises.

Supplier tie-in: Concerns are well-founded

When discussing domestic database customers' concerns about vendor binding, Su Guangniu acknowledged that these concerns are well-founded. He pointed out that, especially those database products based on MySQL and PostgreSQL modifications, they sometimes change the log format intentionally or unintentionally or do not provide sufficient documentation, which undoubtedly increases the complexity of data migration and interface docking.

Su Guangniu divides domestic databases into two categories: one that follows standards and will not cause binding problems; the other that may cause customer concerns because it does not expose key interfaces.

He elaborated on the complexity of database migration, including application migration, data migration and performance migration, and emphasized the importance of standardization and standardization of application interfaces, data snapshots and log interfaces to avoid vendor binding.

In particular, he mentioned that some domestic database vendors have irregular behaviors in snapshots and logs, and sometimes even deliberately do not expose these interfaces, making data migration extremely difficult, which undoubtedly makes customers worried about future database migrations and upgrades. .

Su Guangniu also pointed out that performance migration is a challenge that cannot be ignored, because the performance of different databases under the same hardware specifications may be significantly different, which may force customers to split and reconstruct the system.

He emphasized that when choosing a database, customers should require the manufacturer to expose complete snapshot interfaces and log interfaces to ensure the feasibility of future data migration and system upgrades. At the same time, Su Guangniu mentioned that Huawei Cloud provided a complete snapshot and log interface when developing GaussDB, demonstrating its positive attitude towards open cooperation.

Global Markets: From Local to International

The new generation of databases should not be limited to the domestic market; their footprints have extended to Asia, Africa and Latin America. As shown by GaussDB, relying on cloud technology integration and flexible resource allocation, it is showing its international competitiveness. It is no longer just a leader in the domestic market, but also an important player in the global market.

Su Guangniu believes that the demand for databases is global, whether overseas or domestic. He pointed out that although there are many domestic databases, GaussDB not only provides alternative solutions, but also innovates in distributed architecture. He emphasized that globally, especially in key industries such as banks, there is a huge demand for solving redundant disaster recovery architecture and data consistency issues, and GaussDB has shown obvious advantages in this regard.

Su Guangniu made an in-depth analysis of the advantages of capacity and peak architecture, pointing out that cloud service integration and resource elasticity are major trends in the industry. He proudly shared the success stories of GaussDB in the Asian, African and Latin American markets, proving its remarkable results in business returns.

When discussing the differences between the global and Chinese database markets, Su Guangniu mentioned that in addition to the domestic market, GaussDB has strong competitiveness globally due to its innovation and technological advantages. He believes that Huawei is expected to occupy a place in the global database market relying on its solid marketing foundation and system in overseas markets.

Breaking the circle of domestic databases: core elements of industry development

On how domestic databases can break the existing framework and the core elements of the future development of the industry.

Su Guangniu believes that in the face of the extremely challenging field of database, practitioners must be in awe, which not only comes from the complexity of the business itself, but also comes from the understanding of customer responsibilities. As the core guardian of enterprise data, any technical problems with the database may have an immeasurable impact on customers. Therefore, a sense of responsibility and awe are essential qualities for industry elites.

At the technical level, he emphasized that distributed architecture and ease of migration are the dual driving forces for the development of database technology. Migration, in particular, is critical for migrating applications from traditional business databases to modern solutions. The ability to migrate quickly and seamlessly is directly related to the competitiveness of database products in the market.

When it comes to costs, Su Guangniu believes that as distributed databases become mainstream, how to effectively control costs will become an important issue. He analyzed the cost-effectiveness of migrating from commercial databases to GaussDB through examples, highlighting the importance of economy and ease of use.

In the end, Su Guangniu reiterated the importance of long-term investment. He clearly pointed out that database development and maintenance is not an overnight task, it requires long-term strategic planning and continuous investment. For customers who choose domestic database products, he suggested that they should carefully evaluate the manufacturer's investment and technical strength.

From Su Guangniu's answer, we can see that awe, technological innovation, cost control, and strategic investment are the key factors driving the development of the database industry.

In general, China's database market is standing at a critical turning point, with both challenges and opportunities. When enterprises choose database products, they have gone beyond the sole focus on performance and cost, and focused more on the long-term stability of the product, its ability to support future business development, and its sustainable development potential.

In this market environment, being self-reliant, controllable, and effectively exploring the international market will become the key for China's database industry to transform from a follower to a leader. Facing diversified demands and increasingly severe challenges, only those database products that can deeply understand market dynamics, accurately grasp customer needs, and find a perfect balance between innovation and stability can stand out in this industry transformation. These products will not only contribute to the construction of China's digital economy, but also write a glorious chapter of China's intelligent manufacturing on the global stage.

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Conversation with Su Guangniu: The domestic database market has entered a critical turning point, and 2024 may be a watershed year