From the Shanghai Auto Show to the Guangzhou Auto Show, the biggest change is the continued efforts of traditional joint venture brands in the new energy and smart electric markets. Perhaps, 2024 will be the turning point of the last resort.
At this Guangzhou Auto Show, GAC Toyota released a new new energy brand, BoZhi, and BoZhi 4X, the first product of the BoZhi brand, was officially unveiled. Based on the original BZ4X, this model has upgraded the Toyota Space intelligent cockpit, Toyota Connect intelligent interconnection and T-Pilot intelligent driving assistance system.
According to the plan, Bozhi will launch two new pure electric models in the next three years, and functions such as air suspension, intelligent driving navigation (NOA), and personalized human-computer interaction will be gradually implemented.
This means that GAC Toyota will carry out a more thorough smart electric transformation and reform, reconstruct new energy competitiveness from all dimensions such as brand, technology, and products, and achieve "double advancement" of electrification and intelligence.
SAIC Volkswagen unveiled two new pure electric models, ID.NEXT and ID.Buzz, at the 2023 Guangzhou Auto Show. Among them, ID.NEXT is positioned as a high-end pure electric sedan, and ID.Buzz is a pure electric MPV model. Both cars are It is planned to be launched in 2024.
Another news is that CARIAD, a software subsidiary of the Volkswagen Group, has become one of the first car companies to mass-produce Horizon’s fourth chip, Journey 6. Currently, the joint venture between CARIAD and Horizon is jointly developing full-stack assisted driving and autonomous driving solutions.
For Volkswagen China, this year it also lost its top spot in the Chinese market for the first time.
Data show that in March this year, the BYD brand delivered 183,300 new cars, while the Volkswagen brand (excluding Audi) delivered 174,400 vehicles, which is also regarded as a milestone turning point by the industry.
As of the end of September this year, BYD's new passenger car deliveries in the Chinese market were close to 1.8 million units, reaching 1.768 million units. In comparison, Volkswagen China still lags behind by nearly 100,000 units (1.6849 million units).
According to Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume, 2023 will be a "decisive year" for the company. At the same time, investment and resource support for the Chinese market will remain one of the cores of the new cycle.
However, as a joint venture brand that occupies a dominant position in the traditional fuel vehicle market, it is also experiencing the risk of being marginalized. According to data from the Gaogong Intelligent Automotive Research Institute, in September this year, the share of joint venture brands in China's passenger car market fell for the first time to the lowest point of the year (47.57%).
At the same time, since this year, traditional high-volume joint venture brands have also been affected by changes in the consumption level of the Chinese automobile market. Monitoring data from the Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute shows that from 2020 to the present (as of the end of September this year), the proportion of new car deliveries in the range below 150,000 yuan has continued to shrink.
Especially in the RMB 100,000-150,000 range, the traditional hot-selling models of Toyota, Volkswagen and other Japanese manufacturers have been greatly squeezed by Chinese new energy brands represented by BYD, Nezha, and Leapmotor.
Judging from the data, during the above-mentioned range, the market showed a decline in the proportion of overall delivery volume, while the proportion of new energy models continued to increase.
For example, as of the end of September this year, Dongfeng Nissan, GAC Honda, SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC-GM, and Dongfeng Honda ranked among the top five with year-on-year declines in delivery volume, with a total decline of more than 600,000 vehicles.
BYD, whose new car deliveries are concentrated in the 100,000-150,000 yuan range, delivered over 700,000 more new cars than the same period last year. This means that BYD alone has taken up the market "lost" by the five joint venture car companies.
In addition, entering the second half of 2023, independent brands will begin to make an all-out effort in the price range of 150,000-250,000 yuan, and many manufacturers will also successively release next-generation smart electric models. Judging from the changes in data in recent years, this will also be the final battlefield between traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles.
At the same time, traditional high-end joint venture brands are also stepping up efforts to lower the threshold in the new energy market segment.
For example, SAIC-GM Cadillac launched the IQ Ruige rear-wheel drive standard range luxury version at the Guangzhou Auto Show, with a guide price starting from 297,700 yuan. Compared with the price adjustment in July this year (the overall price dropped by 60,000 yuan, starting from 379,700 yuan), Explore further.
Data shows that from January to September this year, the delivery volume of Ruige models in the Chinese market was less than 2,000 units (1,671 units). As a traditional second-tier luxury brand, Cadillac has been far behind by the new forces in the Chinese market.
The final outcome of this duel is undoubtedly a competition of the speed of advancement in intelligence.
As a representative of traditional luxury brands, Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Kaellenius previously stated that the company will focus on China, the world's largest electric vehicle market. Among them, how to ensure that the special needs of consumers in the Chinese market are met, especially in terms of interior space layout and electronics (intelligence).
According to previous plans, in 2025, Mercedes-Benz's new generation of luxury models based on the next-generation modular architecture platform (MMA) and core luxury models based on the MB.EA pure electric platform will be put into production in Beijing Benz and will also be the first to be launched in the Chinese market.
During this year's Munich Auto Show in Germany, Ola Kaellenius publicly stated that Mercedes-Benz sees growth opportunities in the Chinese market and hopes to seize this opportunity window as more and more potential consumers begin to enter the luxury car market.
In the luxury brand market, the duel may begin in advance.
Previously, Li Xiang, CEO of Li Auto, expressed his confidence to challenge BBA’s sales volume in China in advance in 2024 and strive to become the number one luxury brand in sales in 2024.
Just in October this year, Li Auto achieved a major breakthrough: its monthly new car delivery volume exceeded 40,000 units for the first time, and the average delivery price of new cars reached 378,100 yuan. This is the first local luxury brand other than BBA to achieve this delivery volume in the history of the Chinese market.
Behind this, we also benefit from the comprehensive upgrade of intelligence.
Monitoring data from the Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute shows that the penetration rate of China's smart electric market has rapidly increased from 0.32% in 2018 (accounting for all new energy vehicle deliveries) to 41.84% in 2022. It is expected that this number will exceed 50% in 2023.
This means that in the Chinese market, the smart electric (new energy + L2 + smart cockpit) track is about to enter a new cycle. This is also regarded as the biggest changing factor in the automotive industry after electrification, and will even determine the direction of the future market structure.
Monitoring data from the Gaogong Intelligent Automotive Research Institute shows that currently many domestic independent brands (including new forces such as Lideal, Xpeng, Aion, Leapmoon, and Nezha) are already developing a new generation of central computing E/E architecture core technologies and models. products to further enhance the intelligent integration level of the vehicle.
The intelligence of the entire vehicle has begun to enter a new cycle of electronic architecture upgrades (central computing, regional control) and chassis (wire control) intelligence. The overall industry trend has also shifted from the radical promotion of intelligent functions in the past few years to the reconstruction stage of infrastructure (electronic architecture).
Judging from the data, in the Chinese market (excluding import and export), there will be a total of 2.7978 million pre-installed standard cockpits and smart driving domain controllers in the Chinese market in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 55.21%; it is expected to exceed 5 million units in 2023, and the pre-installed installation rate Breaking through the 20% mark.
Among them, independent brands have become the main contributors. Except for Tesla, almost all car companies that have implemented multi-domain architecture on a large scale are independent brands.
At the same time, in terms of body gateway integration domain (including integration with cockpit, central control, etc.) and regional control, it will also exceed 20% in 2023, and various forms of "central computing + regional control" architecture will enter a large-scale incremental cycle.
For example, in July this year, the Aion Hyper GT was officially launched for delivery using the AEP 3.0 platform and Protoss architecture. The Xingling architecture consists of 3 core computing units + 4 regional controllers, becoming the industry's first mass-produced car-cloud integrated centralized electronic and electrical architecture.
This is also Continental’s first cross-domain central computing control unit mass production project in the Chinese market. This solution also achieved localized research and development for the first time and was jointly developed by Continental’s Shanghai and Chongqing R&D teams and Continental’s China Software and System R&D Center.
In addition, in the high-end smart driving track, from January to September this year, NOA delivered 377,300 new cars with standard passenger car pre-installation (software and hardware) in the Chinese market (excluding import and export) (Tesla is optional), a year-on-year increase It increased by 151.20% in the same period last year, and all models are self-owned brands.
At present, some joint venture brands are stepping up the implementation of NOA in the Chinese market, but in the early stage, they are still mainly focused on high-speed NOA. However, Chinese independent brands have already “opened up” urban NOA.
For China’s local intelligent component suppliers, they will continue to benefit and have more opportunities to enter the supply chain system of joint venture brands.