1. Competition questions
In fresh food supermarkets, the shelf life of general vegetable products is relatively short, and the quality deteriorates with the increase of sales time. If most varieties are not sold on the same day, they cannot be resold the next day. Therefore, supermarkets usually restock every day based on the historical sales and demand of each product.
Since there are many varieties of vegetables sold in supermarkets with different origins, and the purchase and transaction time of vegetables is usually between 3:00
and 4:00 in the morning, merchants must do this without knowing exactly the specific items and purchase prices. Make replenishment decisions for each vegetable category on the day. The pricing of vegetables generally adopts the "cost-plus pricing" method. Supermarkets usually offer discounts for products that have been damaged during transportation and have deteriorated in quality. Reliable market demand analysis is particularly important for replenishment decisions and pricing decisions. From the demand side, there is often a certain correlation between the sales volume of vegetable commodities and time; from the supply side, the supply varieties of vegetables are relatively abundant from April to October, and the restrictions on the sales space of
supermarkets make reasonable sales Combination becomes extremely important.
Attachment 1
gives
the
product information of six vegetable categories
distributed by a certain supermarket; Attachments
2 and 3 respectively give the sales details and sales of each commodity in the supermarket from July 1 , 2020 to June 30 , 2023 . Data related to wholesale prices;
Appendix 4 gives the recent loss rate data of each commodity. Please establish a mathematical model based on the attachment and actual situation to solve the following problems:
Question
1:
There may be certain correlations between different categories or single products of vegetable commodities. Please analyze the distribution patterns and interrelationships of the sales volume of various vegetable categories and single products.
Question
2
Consider that supermarkets make replenishment plans on a category basis. Please analyze the relationship between the total sales volume of each vegetable category and cost-plus pricing, and give the forecast for each vegetable category in the next week ( July 1-7
, 2023)
. The total daily replenishment volume and pricing strategy maximize the profits of supermarkets.
Question
3
: Because the sales space of vegetable products is limited, the supermarket hopes to further develop a replenishment plan for single products, requiring the total number of single products available for sale to be controlled to 27-33, and the order quantity of each single product meets the minimum display quantity requirement of 2.5 kilograms
. . Based on
the varieties available for sale from June 24 to 30, 2023, the single product replenishment volume and pricing strategy for July 1 are given , so as to
maximize
the profits of supermarkets and supermarkets while trying to meet the market demand for various types of vegetable commodities .
Question
4
In order to better make replenishment and pricing decisions for vegetable commodities, what other relevant data do supermarkets need to collect? How can these data help solve the above problems? Please give your opinions and reasons.
2. Analysis and modeling ideas
1. There may be certain correlations between different categories or single products of vegetable commodities. Please analyze the distribution patterns and mutual relationships of sales volume of various vegetable categories and single products.
(1) Basic statistical analysis: First of all, basic statistical analysis needs to be done to count the sales volume distribution of each product from the two levels of category and single product (combined with charts such as histograms), and at the same time, for the period from July 1, 2020 to The time window of June 30, 2023 is divided by year and month to view and analyze the changes in sales volume of each commodity in the time series. It will include the correlation between the sales volume of different commodities, with simultaneous growth and decrease, and the sales volume of different commodities remains constant. Ratio range, etc.;
(2) Correlation analysis: The question gives detailed sales records for three years, which can count daily/monthly sales, and calculate the Pearson correlation coefficient from two levels: category and single product (taking into account the weight differences of different products, The data may need to be standardized first), and the correlation between different categories or different items can be judged based on the size and sign of the correlation coefficient.
(3) Association rule algorithm: To go deeper, consider using association rule algorithm (such as Apriori) to model and analyze the co-occurrence frequency and association rules of product sales combinations (such as different sales volume reaching a certain amount in one day/month), and calculate Support and confidence are used to supplement feedback on product related sales.
2. Considering that supermarkets make replenishment plans on a category basis, please analyze the relationship between the total sales volume of each vegetable category and cost-plus pricing, and provide the forecast for each vegetable category in the next week ( July 1-7 , 2023 ) The total daily replenishment volume and pricing strategy maximize the profits of supermarkets.
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