1. Competition questions
Analysis of Yellow River water and sediment monitoring data
The Yellow River is the mother river of the Chinese nation. Studying the changing laws of water and sediment flux in the Yellow River has implications for environmental governance, climate change and people's lives along the Yellow River Basin, as well as for optimizing water resources distribution in the Yellow River Basin, coordinating the relationship between man and land, regulating water and sediment, and preventing floods and disasters. important theoretical guidance.
Appendix 1 gives
the actual monitoring data of water level, water flow and sediment content of a
hydrological station on the Yellow River downstream of Xiaolangdi Reservoir in the past
six years. Appendix 2
gives the measurement data of the Yellow River section of the hydrological station in the past six years. Appendix 3 gives Relevant data of some monitoring points of the hydrological station were published. Please establish a mathematical model to study the following questions:
Question
1
: Study the relationship between the sediment content of the Yellow River water at the hydrological station and time, water level, and water flow, and estimate the
total annual water flow and total annual sediment discharge at the hydrological station in the past
six years.
Question
2
analyzes
the characteristics of mutation, seasonality and periodicity of water and sediment flux at this hydrological station in the past
6 years, and studies the changing rules of water and sediment flux.
Question
3
: Based on the change pattern of water and sediment flux of the hydrological station, predict and analyze the changing trend of water and sediment flux of the hydrological station in the next two years, and formulate the optimal sampling monitoring plan for the hydrological station in the next two years (number of sampling monitoring and Specific time, etc.), so that it can not only grasp the dynamic changes of water and sediment flux in time, but also minimize monitoring cost resources.
Question
4
: Based on the changes in water and sediment flux and river bottom elevation at the hydrological station, analyze
the actual effect of "water and sediment regulation" carried out in Xiaolangdi Reservoir from
June
to
July every year.
If "water and sediment regulation" is not carried out,
what will happen to the river bottom elevation of the hydrological station in 10 years?
2. Analysis and modeling ideas
1. Study the relationship between the sediment content of the Yellow River water at the hydrological station and time, water level, and water flow, and estimate the total annual water flow and total annual sediment discharge at the hydrological station in the past six years.
The question gives the actual monitoring data of water level, water flow and sediment content in the past 6 years. The water flow is collected every 2 hours. A simple method can be that the water flow growth rate is stable and the average flow rate every two hours is used to calculate the two hours. The total traffic (similar to linear interpolation), if you want to make it complicated, it may be thankless, because there is no more fine-grained data available;
The sand content is mostly collected once a day at 8 o'clock, and occasionally at other times. There are two problems with the data: (1) There are many missing data in 20-21 years, that is, there is no data at 8 o'clock every day; (2) In most cases There is only one piece of data per day, which is too granular and not detailed enough. However, the water flow data above is relatively complete, so a regression model can be constructed for the two to obtain the relationship between sand content and water flow. The sand content is y, and water flow, water level, time-derived characteristics, etc. are used as x to fit. After the regression model is trained, the sediment content at each time point can be predicted, and then the total flow is calculated using the same method as water flow.
2. Analyze
the characteristics of mutation, seasonality and periodicity of water and sediment flux at the hydrological station in the past six years, and study the changing rules of water and sediment flux.
Classic trend decomposition analysis can decompose the water flow and sediment content of the time series to obtain seasonal fluctuations, cyclical fluctuations, trends, and interference items, and then conduct data analysis separately. You can imagine seasonal fluctuations, periodicity Fluctuations must be obvious, but the length of the period to be considered for cyclical fluctuations, whether in years, months or days, is best to look at separately, as there may be different results.
Another point to note is that time series analysis is easily affected by outliers and extreme values, which may not be included in the data given in the question. However, this needs to be taken into consideration in normal analysis ideas. First, use statistics such as trend charts and box plots. Check and confirm if not, continue below.
......
3. Get complete ideas for free
Pay attention to the Python risk control model and data analysis of the Weixin official account , and reply to the national competition question E ideas . Get the complete ideas for free. The official account will continue to improve the ideas and update relevant codes; it is not easy to write, so please pay attention if you work hard.