1. Background introduction
On September 22, 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council officially issued the "Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), clarifying the top-level design of China's dual-carbon action .
Our country is the largest developing country in the world. In order to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, it has planned economic and social development goals to basically realize modernization by 2035 and realize Chinese-style modernization by 2050. Therefore, to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060, we must resolve the contradiction between development and carbon emission reduction. Among them, promoting high-quality economic and social development is the main aspect of the contradiction.
There is a correlation between economic growth and energy consumption, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions. To solve the contradiction between development and emission reduction, we can only seek negative correlation changes between economic growth and carbon emissions. We must start from improving energy utilization efficiency and improving We start from two aspects: the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption.
Improving energy efficiency (i.e. reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP) can achieve negative correlation between economic growth and energy consumption growth. The main ways to improve energy efficiency are: first, carry out energy efficiency projects such as management energy conservation, technical energy conservation and structural energy conservation to reduce energy consumption per unit of products and services; second, carry out industrial upgrading projects based on technological innovation to increase unit products and services added value of technology.
Increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption (that is, reducing carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption) can achieve negative correlation changes in the growth of energy consumption and carbon emissions. The main ways to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption are: first, carry out energy decarbonization projects such as new energy power generation, thermal power decarbonization and new power grids to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation; second, carry out energy replacement with electric energy as the core Consumer electrification projects will increase the proportion of electricity consumption.
It can be seen that to solve the contradiction between development and emission reduction, we need to implement four key projects including energy efficiency improvement, industry (product) upgrading, energy decarbonization and energy consumption electrification from two aspects: improving energy utilization efficiency and increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption.
This competition question requires the establishment and use of mathematical models to analyze, evaluate and predict the impact of key projects such as energy efficiency improvement, industry (product) upgrading, energy decarbonization and energy consumption electrification on carbon emissions.
2. Problems that need to be solved
Please use mathematical modeling methods to solve the following problems:
Question 1: Analysis of the current situation of regional carbon emissions, economy, population, and energy consumption
(1) Establish indicators and indicator systems
Requirement 1: The indicator can describe the economy, population, energy consumption and carbon emissions of a certain region;
Requirement 2: The indicator can describe the carbon emission status of each department (energy supply department, industrial consumption department, construction consumption department, transportation consumption department, residential consumption department, agriculture and forestry consumption department);
Requirement 3: The indicator system can describe the interrelationship between the main indicators;
Requirement 4. Changes in some indicators (year-on-year or month-on-month) can become the basis for carbon emission predictions.
(2) Analyze the current status of regional carbon emissions, economy, population, and energy consumption
Requirement 1: Using 2010 as the base period, analyze the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) and the 13th Five-Year Plan for a certain region
Carbon emission status (such as total amount, change trend, etc.) during the period (2016-2020);
Requirement 2: Analyze the factors that affect carbon emissions in the region and their contributions;
Requirement 3: Analyze and determine the main challenges that the region needs to face to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and provide a basis for differentiated path selection in the region’s dual-carbon (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) path planning.
(3) Regional carbon emissions, economic, population, energy consumption indicators and their correlation models
Requirement 1: Analyze changes in relevant indicators (month-on-month and year-on-year);
Requirement 2: Establish a relationship model between various indicators;
Requirement 3: Based on changes in relevant indicators, combined with multiple effects such as dual-carbon policies and technological progress, determine
The values of carbon emission prediction model parameters (such as energy utilization efficiency improvement and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption, etc.).
Question 2: Forecasting model of regional carbon emissions, economy, population, and energy consumption
(1) Energy consumption forecast model based on demographic and economic changes
Requirement 1: Taking 2020 as the base period and combining the two time nodes of Chinese-style modernization (2035 and
2050), predicting the period from the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) to the 21st Five-Year Plan (2056-2060) in a certain region
Changes in population, economy (GDP) and energy consumption over time.
Requirement 2: Energy consumption is linked to population projections.
Requirement 3: Energy consumption is linked to economic (GDP) forecasts;
(2) Regional carbon emissions prediction model
Requirement 1: Carbon emissions are related to population, GDP and energy consumption forecasts;
Requirement 2: Carbon emissions and various energy consumption sectors (industrial consumption sector, construction consumption sector, transportation
consumption sector, household consumption, agriculture and forestry consumption sector) and energy supply sector energy consumption
Relevance (such as reflecting the impact of energy efficiency improvements on the distribution of total energy consumption in the above energy consumption sectors);
Requirement 3: Carbon emissions and energy consumption types (primary energy) in each energy consumption sector (same as above)
Fossil energy consumption and non-fossil energy consumption and secondary energy (electricity or heat) consumption) and energy supply
The energy consumption types of the corresponding departments (fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation) are related (such as reflecting
The impact of the increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption on energy consumption types or carbon emission factors in various sectors).
Question 3: Regional dual carbon (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) goals and path planning methods
(1) Scenario design (no less than three scenarios, such as natural scenarios without human intervention, on-time carbon peak and carbon
The neutral baseline scenario, the first carbon peak and the ambitious scenario of carbon neutrality, etc.).
Requirement 1: Associated with the time nodes of carbon peak and carbon neutrality;
Requirement 2: Linked to improvements in energy efficiency and an increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption.
(2) Carbon emissions accounting method under multiple scenarios
Basic assumptions:
Assumption 1. GDP in 2035 will double compared with the base period (2020); in 2060 it will quadruple compared with the base period;
Assumption 2. The carbon consumption of the ecological carbon sink in 2060 is 10% of the carbon emissions in the base period;
Assumption 3. The carbon consumption of engineering carbon sinks or carbon trading in 2060 is 10% of the carbon emissions in the base period.
Requirement 1: Regional carbon emissions are consistent with multiple scenario assumptions;
Requirement 2: Regional carbon emissions are consistent with the total carbon emissions of all departments;
Requirement 3: The carbon emissions accounting model is consistent with the prediction model in question 2 (that is, under multiple scenarios, approximately
Under the framework, regional and departmental energy consumption, energy consumption types and carbon emission forecasting methods are consistent
To).
(3) Determine the dual carbon (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) goals and paths
Requirement 1: Determine target values for GDP, population and energy consumption (2025, 2030, 2035,
2050 and 2060);
Requirement 2: Determine target values for improving energy efficiency and increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption (2025
years, 2030, 2035, 2050 and 2060);
Requirement 3: Complete energy efficiency improvement, industry (product) upgrading, energy decarbonization and electrification of energy consumption.
Qualitative and quantitative analysis.
For problem-solving ideas, please refer to the following article