Entering 2023, on the one hand, a small number of leading car companies will start to develop urban NOA (navigation assisted driving), and on the other hand, more car companies will enter a new cycle of popularizing high-speed NOA.
This also means that the high-end intelligent driving functions (represented by NOA) that used to focus on the market of models above 300,000 yuan have begun to explore a larger potential market.
According to the monitoring data of Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute, taking the first half of 2023 as the statistical caliber, the delivery of models above 300,000 yuan accounted for less than 20% (the entire new car market), and the corresponding proportion of new vehicles delivered by NOA (accounting for all NOA deliveries ) over 85%.
From the perspective of data distribution, models below 300,000 yuan, which account for 80% of the overall market sales, are the key to the scale of NOA. And only when it is popularized on a large scale, can the end-to-end data-driven closed-loop model have the opportunity to enter a sustainable iteration cycle.
NOA carrying price continues to decline
At the same time, considering that L2 is more biased towards basic functions, while L2+ (represented by NOA) is more based on scene experience (stronger consumer awareness and attractiveness), the latter has also become the product of many car companies on new models Define trends.
Since last year, a number of independent brands, including Geely, Changan, GAC, BYD, and SAIC, have launched high-speed NOA successively. These brands occupy most of the market for models below 300,000 yuan.
For example, Geely’s Lynk & Co has upgraded its Lynk Co-Pilot Navi intelligent navigation assistance system for all models since the second half of last year; at the same time, in order to further strengthen the promotion effect, some car companies have even upgraded the original optional NOA to a free experience rights and interests.
At the beginning of this year, Changan Deep Blue SL03 also officially launched "high-end smart driving". NID3.0 pilot smart driving assistance and APA7.0 remote valet parking covered the 200,000-yuan pure electric vehicle market for the first time.
At the same time, in terms of reducing the cost of high-end intelligent driving, most car companies have begun to seek how to avoid relying on high-precision maps in NOA scenarios (for car companies and even end users, it is also a considerable expense), while BEV +The blessing of Transformer can solve the problem to a certain extent.
For example, at the beginning of this year, Xiaopeng Motors clearly stated that the X-NGP assisted driving in 2023 will abandon high-precision maps. At the same time, by next year, the BOM cost to achieve autonomous driving will drop by more than 50%.
This means that the computing solution (chip), which is one of the main cost items of the current intelligent driving system, needs to be further improved in quality and efficiency. Prior to this, Horizon also took the lead in proposing the concept of high-performance computing solutions to accelerate the popularization of intelligent driving.
For example, the diversified computing solution product matrix built by Horizon can support different application requirements such as entry-level L2, integrated driving and parking, and NOA covering models ranging from 100,000 to 400,000 yuan.
From the data point of view, in the first half of 2023, the Chinese market (excluding import and export) delivered 209,400 units of NOA as standard pre-installed passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 108.98%. The number of models with NOA configuration exceeds 50, which is more than double that of the same period last year.
At the same time, the delivery scale of NOA optional configuration models reached 386,200 units, further highlighting the rigid demand of the market for cost reduction. "Intelligence has become the core selling point of new cars, and standard equipment and optional equipment also reflect the core competitiveness of car companies to a certain extent."
Market Interpretation of Computing Solutions
At the same time, from the basic entry-level L2 to the high-speed NOA, as well as the demand of some car companies for the integrated driving and parking solutions, it also drives the intelligent driving computing solution to enter the market change period. In addition to Tesla's self-developed chips, manufacturers represented by Nvidia, Horizon, and TI have quickly become the mainstream choice in the market.
Taking the H1 data in 2023 as an example, in the core computing solution segment, Nvidia and Horizon jointly occupy more than 80% of the NOA pre-installation (standard configuration) market share, and the head effect and trend are prominent. Among them, the number of NOA models equipped with the horizon computing solution is leading.
At the same time, as of June 2023, only the above-mentioned five computing (chip) solution providers have achieved mass production and delivery in the NOA field (subject to new car sales) . ) has not yet been mass-produced and delivered. (Excluding Tesla's self-developed FSD chip)
Considering that the fixed point of the chip has a certain guiding effect on the market trend, the popularization effect of NOA and other high-end intelligent driving has been highlighted. From the perspective of fixed-point and delivery models, the market in different price ranges (from 150,000 to 500,000 yuan) is accelerating the NOA mass production process.
At the same time, it still takes a relatively long time period from the fixed-point model to the gradual mass production release, which means that it is becoming more difficult to mass-produce more computing solutions in the short term.
For example, taking Horizon as an example, in just a few years, more than 20 domestic and international mainstream car companies have designated more than 120 models, and the cumulative shipment of Journey chips has exceeded 3 million pieces.
Typical cases include the world's first NOA solution equipped with an 8MP front-view camera in the mass production of Ideal ONE based on Journey 3 in 2021. In 2022, Ideal L8 (including L7, L9 and other follow-up models) will be equipped with Journey 5 to achieve the world's first mass production, realize the upgrade of high-speed NOA function, and officially open the first year of mass production of the first large computing power chip in China.
In addition, during this year's Shanghai Auto Show, Horizon announced that many popular new cars in the industry, such as Nezha GT, Deep Blue SL03, and Deep Blue S7, are equipped with Horizon Journey 3 chips. The high-end positioning Denza N7 even adopts the standard Pilot intelligent driving assistance system (standard version, 5R5V integrated driving and parking, journey 3).
Behind this, it also benefits from the open and win-win ecological cooperation model built by Horizon. For example, as of the end of 2022, Horizon has connected more than 100 upstream and downstream industry partners including software and hardware Tier1, ODM, IDH, chips, map vendors, sensors, and others.
At the same time, for partners, Horizon provides corresponding development kits and reference designs including development boards, SOM boards, computing accelerator cards, etc., to help develop systems quickly and at low cost; and, by providing rich and complete tools to reduce the investment cost of car companies and risks, and meet the differentiated needs of automakers.
In contrast, Huawei adopts a vertically integrated model, from chips to domain controllers (MDCs) to full-stack software solutions. Judging from the current delivery volume, it basically relies on Huawei's car-making cooperation projects.
As for the domain controller solution, this year Desay SV is also mainly promoting the lightweight intelligent driving domain controller IPU02 (NVIDIA platform is no longer selected), and it is considered to have a pivotal position, adapting to the low-to-medium to low-end vehicles in the domestic auto market The largest segment of the market is mid-to-high price range models.
market trend
According to the estimation of Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute, in the part of smart driving computing (chip) solution, high-speed NOA will be the core track for subsequent large-scale applications. The market space (according to the number of vehicles) of chips with small and medium computing power and large computing power is distributed at about 7:3.
Just this week, Li Auto launched the L9 Pro version (the national unified retail price is 429,800 yuan), which comes standard with the Horizon Journey 5 platform; It is also a major move to continue to expand the sales of L9.
Horizon is currently the only supplier in the market that provides two high- and low-level chip solutions for Journey 3 and Journey 5, which also means that the flexibility and scalability of vehicle adaptation lead the market.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, which also lays the foundation for the subsequent scale-up of NOA vehicles. The data shows that the configuration rate of new energy vehicle NOA (including optional equipment, including hardware standard configuration + software paid subscription) has exceeded 20%.
Starting from the second half of this year, BYD's large-scale upgrade of NOA models and the product strategy of high standard equipment ratio in the past will further drive the domestic NOA industry chain to continue to accelerate the process of "cost reduction" and "scaling". In terms of computing solutions, BYD chose NVIDIA and Horizon at the same time.
In particular, entering 2023, the smart car track has been driven from pure technology and has truly entered a new round of market-driven cycle. Next, for suppliers and car companies, the fight is not just for the "stacking" of flagship high-end models, but for the real large-scale popularization, which will further test the comprehensive capabilities of suppliers.
At present, the top 15 brands in terms of delivery volume have all entered the NOA boarding cycle. In the second half of the year, more new vehicles equipped with NOA will be launched and delivered. It is estimated that the potential (including optional configuration) NOA equipped vehicles will exceed 1.5 million vehicles throughout the year.
According to Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute, in the Chinese market, starting from 2023, the scale of NOA will be the protagonist; starting from 2024, a small number of car companies will try L3/L4 on a small scale (depending on the policies of different cities); From 2025, L3/L4 will enter the cycle of small-scale mass production.
Forecast: Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute will also launch a series of data briefing topics related to the core sensors, domain controllers, and subdivision functions of the H1 intelligent driving system in 2023 .